Alert archive / Pennsylvania / Special Weather Statements in 2018

Special Weather Statement, NWS State College, PA

July 23, 2018Cumberland County, Juniata County, Perry County, Pennsylvania

NWS State College, PA issued this special weather statement at Jul 23, 2018, 6:56 PM EDT for Cumberland County, Juniata County, Perry County, Pennsylvania. It was in force for 64 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jul 23, 2018, 6:56 PM EDT (22:56 UTC)
Expired: Jul 23, 2018, 8:00 PM EDT
In force: 64 min
Issued by: NWS State College, PA

Counties Cumberland County, PA, Juniata County, PA, Perry County, PA

The radar

The State College radar (KCCX), 75 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:58 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Washington/Dulle, VA (KIAD), launched 12:00Z, 10.9 hours before the alert went out and 161 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 533 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -17 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 600 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 31 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 102 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 206 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.3
Supercell composite: 3.3

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS State College, PA wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at Jul 23, 3:25 PM EDT, 3 hours 31 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 23, 3:25 PM EDT, 3 hours 31 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
325 PM EDT Mon Jul 23 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
An extended wet pattern with frequent rounds of rain will
continue to elevate the risk of flooding across parts of
central Pennsylvania and the Susquehanna River Valley through
at least mid-week. Drier air will try to work in late in the
week as the deep slow moving upper trough gradually fills and
moves slowly to the east.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Low cape and moderately strong SSE LLVL shear environment is
present across much of the region for narrow bands of heavy
showers and transient, low- topped mini supercells to increase
late this afternoon into this evening, once again increasing the
risk of localized flash flooding across the eastern half to
two- thirds of the CWA.

The exception late today will be across the SCent and SE zones
where elevated sfc based cape of around 2500 j/kg and 0-1km
shear of approx 20 kts will elevate the risk of brief tornadic
cells near and to the SE of the I-81 corridor.

HREFv2, along with the latest RAP, NAM and SREF all show the
likelihood of additional bands of torrential rain setting up
across the Central Mtns and Susquehanna Valley late today and
this evening as an extensive plume of tropical moisture
continues to stream in from the SSE and combines with increased
instability and terrain effects.

Extended the Flash Flood Watch this morning to cover the
Northern Mtns and all of the I-99/Route 220 corridor through 8
PM Wednesday.

An additional 0.50 inches is likely across most of the CWA by
early Tuesday, while the narrow bands of torrential rain could
easily result in 2-4 inches of additional rain by late tonight.

In addition to the heavy rain potential and WPC's Slight to
Moderate Risk of Excessive rain in their DAY 1 outlook, SPC has
a MRGL Risk for Svr TSRA in the form of Wet Microbursts and the
potential for highly localized wind damage.

Down trees and branches could easily occur where the soil is
saturated and canopy of full foliage on the larger trees is
easily weighted down by the periods of very heavy rain and brief
gusty winds. Very low LCLs and decent llvl shear lead to pockets
of 0-1km EHIs on the order of 1.5 to 2.0 M2/S2 across the
eastern half of the state this afternoon and evening, so the
risk of an isolated, brief EF0-1 tornado developing from
slightly right-moving, low-topped cells (tracking from about
180 deg) is not out of the question.

It will stay muggy tonight with mins only in the mid 60s across
the mtns...to mid 70s in the Susq Valley.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
*Multi-day heavy to excessive rain risk continues over parts of
 south central PA

An extensive wet pattern will continue to raise concerns for
flash and small stream flooding through the short term period.
The repeated rounds of showers and storms will also push many of
the smaller rivers/larger creeks in the srn half of the area to
bank full or out of their banks. Base flow is already much
higher than just back on Sat, and FFG values are just an inch or
so in the SC & SE counties. Atmospheric river set-up with deep
layer south-southeast flow will maintain very high (2-2.25") PWs
and support intense rain rates. Much like the last 36-42 hours,
though, the cell motion will be very quick, and it will take
training to make the flooding situation dangerous in any given
location. But, that is getting to be a higher and higher
probability as each day of this moisture feed continues.
Temps/winds/dewpoints, etc. are all persistence values.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Late Tuesday into Wednesday, filling upper trough off to our
west will remain nearly stationary or even retrograde a little
as strong broad ridge forms over the western U.S. For PA, long
fetch moist southerly low-level flow continues for much of the
week, with upper flow turning more SW/W. Not much to inhibit
daily convection along this river of high PWAT air over the
region, so very efficient precip producers that could exacerbate
flooding situation after several days of noteworthy rains could
continue to bring potential flooding impacts through much of
the week.

Best daily chances for tstorms shifts to western/central
sections early in the week (as ridge briefly edges in from the
east) before precip shifts eastward Thu as a cold frontal
boundary finally pushes across the state. The weekend looks
drier yet scattered showers may persist.

Though it will be quite muggy, temperatures will be at or
slightly below below normal much of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Rounds of heavy showers and embedded thunderstorms will continue
across central PA airspace over the next 3 days. Aside from
localized restrictions in +RA, ceilings trends will be from
IFR/MVFR at night to MVFR/Low VFR during the day. The waves of
rain will be difficult to time so will run with longer durations
of prevailing SHRA through at least the first half of the
period.

.Outlook...

Tue-Wed...Frequent showers and embedded t'storm with heavy
downpours associated.

Thu-Fri...Scattered showers/t'storms possible.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Additional heavy rainfall of 2 to 6 inches over the next 24 to
72 hours (mainly over Central PA and the Susq Valley) will pose
a very serious stream and river flooding threat through
midweek. Taking into account the rainfall that already occurred
over the weekend, minor to moderate small stream and creek
flooding is likely with even some impacts on larger main stem
rivers. Some small streams may approach major flooding.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch through Wednesday evening for PAZ006-012-018-
019-025>028-034>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059-063>066.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Lambert
NEAR TERM...Lambert
SHORT TERM...Dangelo/Lambert
LONG TERM...Ross/RXR
AVIATION...Lambert
HYDROLOGY...

Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 23, 9:37 AM EDT, 9 hours 19 minutes before

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service State College PA
937 AM EDT Mon Jul 23 2018

PAZ004-005-010-011-017-024-033-241345-
Warren-McKean-Elk-Cameron-Clearfield-Cambria-Somerset-
937 AM EDT Mon Jul 23 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Periods of heavy showers and a few thunderstorms could bring between
1 and 2 inches of rain across the region mainly to the east of Route
219. Minor flooding of poor drainage areas in cities and towns, and
flooding of some small streams could result from this locally heavy
rain.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather and
flooding.

PAZ006-012-018-019-025>028-034>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059-
063>066-241345-
Potter-Northern Clinton-Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Blair-
Huntingdon-Mifflin-Juniata-Bedford-Fulton-Franklin-Tioga-
Northern Lycoming-Sullivan-Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming-Union-
Snyder-Montour-Northumberland-Columbia-Perry-Dauphin-Schuylkill-
Lebanon-Cumberland-Adams-York-Lancaster-
937 AM EDT Mon Jul 23 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to
weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more
information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to
weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more
information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather and
flooding.

Lambert

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Jul 23, 3:05 PM EDT, 3 hours 51 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
305 PM EDT MON JUL 23 2018

PAZ027-028-056-231945-
Perry PA-Juniata PA-Mifflin PA-
305 PM EDT MON JUL 23 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT PARTS OF MIFFLIN...JUNIATA...AND
PERRY COUNTIES UNTIL 345 PM EDT...

At 305 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm over
Loysville, moving northwest at 40 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible.

Locations impacted include...
Lewistown, Burnham, Highland Park, Yeagertown, Spruce Hill, Juniata
Terrace, Mexico, Alfarata, Belltown, Loysville, Ickesburg, Walnut,
Mifflintown, Port Royal, Mifflin, Maitland, Landisburg and Wagner.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 4032 7736 4030 7742 4061 7767 4074 7736
      4070 7735 4070 7734 4033 7725 4029 7733
TIME...MOT...LOC 1905Z 156DEG 33KT 4037 7736

RXR

Special weather statement, Jul 23, 4:31 PM EDT, 2 hours 25 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
431 PM EDT MON JUL 23 2018

PAZ026>028-036-232115-
Franklin PA-Juniata PA-Huntingdon PA-Mifflin PA-
431 PM EDT MON JUL 23 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT PARTS OF HUNTINGDON...MIFFLIN...
FRANKLIN...AND JUNIATA COUNTIES UNTIL 515 PM EDT...

At 431 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm over
Doylesburg, moving north at 35 mph.

Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph are possible.

Locations impacted include...
Perulack, Doylesburg, Blacklog, McVeytown, Longfellow, Newton
Hamilton and Atkinson Mills.

LAT...LON 4050 7786 4052 7763 4033 7762 4030 7767
      4027 7766 4026 7767 4026 7765 4022 7764
      4023 7762 4018 7762 4012 7761 4011 7780
TIME...MOT...LOC 2031Z 175DEG 32KT 4021 7770

Colbert

Local storm report, Jul 23, 5:11 PM EDT, 1 hour 45 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
511 PM EDT MON JUL 23 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0222 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 ESE MORRIS            41.64N  77.23W
07/23/2018                   TIOGA              PA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES DOWN ON WIRES.

&&

EVENT NUMBER CTP1802022

COLBERT

Special weather statement, Jul 23, 5:51 PM EDT, 1 hour 5 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
551 PM EDT MON JUL 23 2018

PAZ018-019-027-232230-
Northern Centre PA-Mifflin PA-Southern Centre PA-
551 PM EDT MON JUL 23 2018

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

At 550 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated strong thundershowers along a
line extending from Pleasant Gap to Seven Mountains. Movement was
north at 30 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph are possible.

Locations impacted include...
Bellefonte, Boalsburg, Pleasant Gap, Lemont, Zion, Houserville,
Milroy, Centre Hall, Milesburg, Spring Mills, Monument, Potters
Mills, Bald Eagle State Park, Seven Mountains, Howard, Orviston,
Tussey Mountain Ski Area and University Park Airport.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4111 7775 4111 7767 4089 7749 4065 7764
      4071 7770 4072 7768 4073 7768 4072 7771
      4088 7788 4113 7777
TIME...MOT...LOC 2150Z 187DEG 27KT 4088 7777 4073 7764

Colbert

Special weather statement, Jul 23, 6:46 PM EDT, 10 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
646 PM EDT MON JUL 23 2018

PAZ006-012-045-232315-
Potter PA-Southern Clinton PA-Northern Clinton PA-
646 PM EDT MON JUL 23 2018

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

At 645 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a
line extending from near Blanchard to near Tamarack. Movement was
north at 25 mph.

Very heavy rain is expected.
Winds in excess of 30 mph are possible.

Locations impacted include...
Renovo, South Renovo, Cross Fork, Glen Union, Tamarack, Cherry
Springs State Park, Hyner, Ole Bull State Park and Beech Creek.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Minor flooding may develop. Do not drive into water covering the
roadway.

Turn around don't drown.

&&

LAT...LON 4148 7760 4144 7760 4140 7756 4137 7754
      4135 7750 4103 7756 4105 7758 4106 7756
      4109 7763 4110 7765 4139 7790 4186 7792
TIME...MOT...LOC 2245Z 199DEG 21KT 4113 7760 4140 7782

BANGHOFF

Special weather statement, Jul 23, 6:56 PM EDT, 0 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
656 PM EDT MON JUL 23 2018

PAZ027-028-050-056-063-240000-
Perry PA-Cumberland PA-Juniata PA-Mifflin PA-Snyder PA-
656 PM EDT MON JUL 23 2018

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

At 655 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms over
Colonel Denning State Park, moving north at 35 mph.

Very heavy rain is expected.
Winds in excess of 30 mph are possible.

Locations impacted include...
Carlisle, Lewistown, Plainfield, Burnham, Milroy, Highland Park,
Newville, Honey Grove, Yeagertown, Mcalisterville, McClure, Spruce
Hill, Beaver Springs, Reedsville, Juniata Terrace, Mexico, East
Waterford, Alfarata, Loysville and Ickesburg.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Minor flooding may develop. Do not drive into water covering the
roadway.

Turn around don't drown.

&&

LAT...LON 4027 7762 4071 7761 4077 7749 4073 7715
      4002 7727 4000 7736
TIME...MOT...LOC 2255Z 186DEG 29KT 4027 7744

BANGHOFF

The office that day

Everything else NWS State College, PA issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 23, 12:13 AM EDT	Areal Flood Advisory	CTP	Adams, Cumberland, Dauphin, Lancaster, Perry, York	6 hr
Jul 23, 3:43 AM EDT	Areal Flood Advisory	CTP	Dauphin, Lebanon, Schuylkill	3 hr
Jul 23, 3:59 AM EDT	Flash Flood Watch	CTP	Adams, Bedford, Blair, Centre, Clinton, Columbia and 20 more	4 days
Jul 23, 4:32 AM EDT	Flash Flood Warning	CTP	Dauphin, Lebanon, Schuylkill	3 hr
Jul 23, 4:47 AM EDT	River Flood Warning	CTP	Lebanon, Schuylkill	4 days
Jul 23, 4:48 AM EDT	Areal Flood Advisory	CTP	Columbia, Montour, Northumberland, Schuylkill	3 hr
Jul 23, 4:52 AM EDT	Special Weather Statement	CTP	Columbia	38 min
Jul 23, 4:58 AM EDT	Areal Flood Advisory	CTP	Adams, Cumberland, Franklin, Perry	2 hr
Jul 23, 5:44 AM EDT	Flash Flood Warning	CTP	Columbia, Montour, Northumberland, Schuylkill	3 hr
Jul 23, 5:51 AM EDT	Special Weather Statement	CTP	Juniata, Perry	54 min
Jul 23, 6:24 AM EDT	River Flood Warning	CTP	Dauphin, Lebanon	5 days
Jul 23, 7:16 AM EDT	Areal Flood Advisory	CTP	Bedford, Franklin, Fulton, Huntingdon	3 hr
Jul 23, 8:06 AM EDT	Areal Flood Warning	CTP	Columbia, Dauphin, Lancaster, Lebanon, Montour, Northumberland and 2 more	6 hr
Jul 23, 8:41 AM EDT	Areal Flood Advisory	CTP	Lycoming, Sullivan	5 hr
Jul 23, 11:02 AM EDT	River Flood Warning	CTP	Dauphin	4 days
Jul 23, 12:41 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	CTP	Snyder	49 min
Jul 23, 12:54 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	CTP	Snyder	36 min
Jul 23, 1:13 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	CTP	Centre	32 min
Jul 23, 1:23 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	CTP	Centre	52 min
Jul 23, 1:38 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	CTP	Lycoming	37 min
Jul 23, 1:47 PM EDT	Areal Flood Warning	CTP	Dauphin, Lancaster, Lebanon, Northumberland, Schuylkill, York	9 hr
Jul 23, 2:17 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	CTP	Cumberland	28 min
Jul 23, 2:18 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	CTP	Tioga	57 min
Jul 23, 3:05 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	CTP	Juniata, Mifflin	40 min
Jul 23, 4:31 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	CTP	Huntingdon	44 min
Jul 23, 5:36 PM EDT	River Flood Warning	CTP	Huntingdon	3 days
Jul 23, 5:50 PM EDT	Areal Flood Advisory	CTP	Lancaster	115 min
Jul 23, 5:51 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	CTP	Centre	39 min
Jul 23, 6:46 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	CTP	Clinton, Potter	29 min
Jul 23, 7:18 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	CTP	Tioga	57 min

Nearby

Special Weather Statements in Pennsylvania, 2018 Every special weather statement in 2018

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.