Flash Flood Watch 11, NWS State College, PA

Adams County, PA, Bedford County, PA, Blair County, PA, Centre County, PA, Clinton County, PA, Columbia County, PA, Cumberland County, PA, Dauphin County, PA, Franklin County, PA, Fulton County, PA, Huntingdon County, PA, Juniata County, PA, Lancaster County, PA, Lebanon County, PA, Lycoming County, PA, Mifflin County, PA, Montour County, PA, Northumberland County, PA, Perry County, PA, Potter County, PA, Schuylkill County, PA, Snyder County, PA, Sullivan County, PA, Tioga County, PA, Union County, PA, York County, PA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
207 AM EDT Mon Jul 23 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
An extended wet pattern with frequent rounds of rain will
elevate the risk of flooding across parts of central
Pennsylvania through at least mid-week. Drier air will try to
work in late in the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 AM THIS MORNING/...
Firehose of moisture still directed into the region from the S.
Multiple storms rolling through the very wet area from
Harrisburg to Gettysburg needs to be watched very carefully, but
the cells are moving very fast and the torrential rain is only
there for a few minutes. Trouble is that there are more storms
to our S. Good news is on the immediate horizon for the latter
half of the night, though. Looks like a dry air, perhaps a sign
of subsidence, is right behind the few showers in MD. This lull
should last for a few hours, but showers/storms will rejuvinate
around or perhaps before sunrise. This puts us right back in the
thick of it.

Am starting to consider yet another flood watch for the area
E of UNV and S of IPT where the rainfall has been and could
again be excessive. Will think more about this and talk to
neigbors and WPC on their thoughts.

&&

.SHORT TERM /11 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
*Multi-day heavy to excessive rain risk continues over parts of
 south central PA

An extensive wet pattern will continue to raise concerns for
flash and small stream flooding through the short term period.
The repeated rounds of showers and storms will also push many of
the smaller rivers/larger creeks in the srn half of the area to
bank full or out of their banks. Base flow is already much
higher than just back on Sat, and FFG values are just an inch or
so in the SC & SE counties. Atmospheric river set-up with deep
layer south-southeast flow will maintain very high (2-2.25") PWs
and support intense rain rates. Much like the last 28 hours,
though, the cell motion will be very quick, and it will take
training to make things dangerous. But, that is getting to be a
higher and higher probability as each day of this moisture feed
continues.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
By Tuesday, filling upper trough off to our west will remain
nearly stationary or even retrograde a little as strong broad
ridge forms over the western U.S. For PA, long fetch moist
southerly low-level flow continues for much of the week, with
upper flow turning more SW/W. Not much to inhibit daily
convection along this river of high PWAT air over the region,
so very efficient precip producers that could exacerbate
flooding situation after several days of noteworthy rains could
continue to bring potential flooding impacts through much of the
week.

Best daily chances for tstorms shifts to western/central
sections early in the week (as ridge briefly edges in from the
east) before precip shifts eastward Thu as a cold frontal
boundary finally pushes across the state. The weekend looks
drier yet scattered showers may persist.

Though it will be quite muggy, temperatures will be at or
slightly below below normal much of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Firehose of moisture from south to north over the next three
days will play havoc with flight catiegories through midweek.
Expect flucuations from VFR to IFR and back in only minutes of
time as streams of moisture and associated convection move over
all airfields.

In the short term, a plume of moisture is moving north along
the Susquehanna river. This will affect KMDT, KLNS and KIPT
through sunrise. Airfields west of this line will have VCSH and
visibility and ceiling reductions to MVFR in BR at times.

As heating returns during the daylight hours, -RA and TSRA will
redevelop over a majority of the area during the afternoon.
This will diminish after sunset - only to repeat again on Monday
night and Tuesday...and points well into the future.

.Outlook...

Tue-Fri...Frequent showers/isolated T'storms with associated
MVFR/IFR restrictions. TSRA most numerous in PM.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
2 to 6 inches of rain in the past 36 hours has produced
significant rises on small streams and creeks. An extensive wet
pattern this week with frequent rounds of rain and daily
downpours will elevate the risk of river (small stream/creek)
flooding through late week.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Dangelo
NEAR TERM...Dangelo
SHORT TERM...Ross/Steinbugl
LONG TERM...Ross/RXR
AVIATION...Dangelo/Tyburski
HYDROLOGY...

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1051 PM EDT SUN JUL 22 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0245 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 W GETTYSBURG          39.83N  77.25W
07/22/2018  M4.87 INCH       ADAMS              PA   PUBLIC

            24-HOUR RAINFALL.

0555 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 SW STOUFFERSTOWN      39.92N  77.64W
07/22/2018  M3.50 INCH       FRANKLIN           PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            24-HOUR RAINFALL.

0600 AM     HEAVY RAIN       HERNDON                 40.71N  76.85W
07/22/2018  M3.00 INCH       NORTHUMBERLAND     PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            24-HOUR RAINFALL.

0622 AM     HEAVY RAIN       AARONSBURG              40.90N  77.45W
07/22/2018  M2.04 INCH       CENTRE             PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            24-HOUR RAINFALL.

0636 AM     HEAVY RAIN       WEST MANHEIM            39.72N  76.92W
07/22/2018  M4.22 INCH       YORK               PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            24-HOUR RAINFALL.

0645 AM     HEAVY RAIN       LOCK HAVEN              41.14N  77.45W
07/22/2018  M2.91 INCH       CLINTON            PA   PUBLIC

            24-HOUR RAINFALL.

0650 AM     HEAVY RAIN       WAYNE HEIGHTS           39.74N  77.55W
07/22/2018  M3.24 INCH       FRANKLIN           PA   PUBLIC

            24-HOUR RAINFALL.

0650 AM     HEAVY RAIN       2 WSW LEWISBURG         40.95N  76.93W
07/22/2018  M2.90 INCH       UNION              PA   SOCIAL MEDIA

            24-HOUR RAINFALL.

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       LEMONT                  40.81N  77.82W
07/22/2018  M2.31 INCH       CENTRE             PA   NWS EMPLOYEE

            24-HOUR RAINFALL.

0714 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 N HUGHESVILLE         41.25N  76.73W
07/22/2018  M1.50 INCH       LYCOMING           PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            24-HOUR RAINFALL.

0720 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 S NEW SALEM           39.89N  76.79W
07/22/2018  M2.00 INCH       YORK               PA   PUBLIC

            24-HOUR RAINFALL.

0726 AM     HEAVY RAIN       WAYNESBORO              39.75N  77.58W
07/22/2018  M3.70 INCH       FRANKLIN           PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            24-HOUR RAINFALL.

0751 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 S POLKTOWN            39.75N  77.63W
07/22/2018  M3.77 INCH       FRANKLIN           PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            24-HOUR RAINFALL.

0757 AM     HEAVY RAIN       HERSHEY                 40.28N  76.65W
07/22/2018  M1.60 INCH       DAUPHIN            PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            24-HOUR RAINFALL.

0825 AM     HEAVY RAIN       3 SW PILLOW             40.61N  76.84W
07/22/2018  M2.70 INCH       DAUPHIN            PA   SOCIAL MEDIA

            24-HOUR RAINFALL.

0831 AM     HEAVY RAIN       STORMSTOWN              40.79N  78.02W
07/22/2018  M1.74 INCH       CENTRE             PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            24-HOUR RAINFALL.

0840 AM     HEAVY RAIN       GREENCASTLE             39.79N  77.73W
07/22/2018  M2.29 INCH       FRANKLIN           PA   COCORAHS

            24-HOUR RAINFALL.

0851 AM     HEAVY RAIN       BIGLERVILLE             39.93N  77.25W
07/22/2018  M5.29 INCH       ADAMS              PA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            24-HOUR RAINFALL.

0852 AM     HEAVY RAIN       MONTANDON               40.96N  76.86W
07/22/2018  M2.88 INCH       NORTHUMBERLAND     PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            24-HOUR RAINFALL.

0924 AM     HEAVY RAIN       PLEASANT GAP            40.86N  77.74W
07/22/2018  M3.38 INCH       CENTRE             PA   NWS EMPLOYEE

            24-HOUR RAINFALL.

0926 AM     HEAVY RAIN       EAST END                40.52N  78.38W
07/22/2018  M1.66 INCH       BLAIR              PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            24-HOUR RAINFALL.

1200 PM     HEAVY RAIN       1 W SYLVAN DELL         41.23N  76.96W
07/22/2018  M3.70 INCH       LYCOMING           PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            24-HOUR RAINFALL.

1200 PM     HEAVY RAIN       CHAMBERSBURG            39.93N  77.66W
07/22/2018  M3.41 INCH       FRANKLIN           PA   SOCIAL MEDIA

            24-HOUR RAINFALL.

1256 PM     HEAVY RAIN       WILLIAMSPORT            41.24N  77.02W
07/22/2018  M3.62 INCH       LYCOMING           PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            24-HOUR RAINFALL.

0132 PM     HEAVY RAIN       PARK HILLS              40.80N  77.90W
07/22/2018  M2.50 INCH       CENTRE             PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            24-HOUR RAINFALL.

0134 PM     HEAVY RAIN       YORK                    39.96N  76.73W
07/22/2018  M1.94 INCH       YORK               PA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            24-HOUR RAINFALL.

0134 PM     HEAVY RAIN       WATERVILLE              41.22N  76.38W
07/22/2018  M3.20 INCH       COLUMBIA           PA   SOCIAL MEDIA

            24-HOUR RAINFALL.

0147 PM     HEAVY RAIN       WEST MILTON             41.01N  76.88W
07/22/2018  M2.76 INCH       UNION              PA   SOCIAL MEDIA

            24-HOUR RAINFALL.

0151 PM     HEAVY RAIN       LEBANON                 40.34N  76.42W
07/22/2018  M1.84 INCH       LEBANON            PA   SOCIAL MEDIA

            24-HOUR RAINFALL.

0153 PM     HEAVY RAIN       1 E GETTYSBURG          39.83N  77.22W
07/22/2018  M5.17 INCH       ADAMS              PA   SOCIAL MEDIA

            24-HOUR RAINFALL.

0213 PM     HEAVY RAIN       KELLY CROSSROADS        41.02N  76.94W
07/22/2018  M4.00 INCH       UNION              PA   SOCIAL MEDIA

            24-HOUR RAINFALL.

0259 PM     HEAVY RAIN       SUMMERDALE              40.31N  76.93W
07/22/2018  E3.50 INCH       CUMBERLAND         PA   SOCIAL MEDIA

            24-HOUR RAINFALL.

0323 PM     HEAVY RAIN       1 W LINDEN              41.23N  77.16W
07/22/2018  M4.70 INCH       LYCOMING           PA   SOCIAL MEDIA

            24-HOUR RAINFALL.

0402 PM     HEAVY RAIN       JERSEY SHORE            41.20N  77.27W
07/22/2018  M3.41 INCH       LYCOMING           PA   SOCIAL MEDIA

            24-HOUR RAINFALL.

0532 PM     HEAVY RAIN       ORRSTOWN                40.06N  77.61W
07/22/2018  M3.25 INCH       FRANKLIN           PA   SOCIAL MEDIA

            24-HOUR RAINFALL.

&&

EVENT NUMBER CTP1801986 CTP1801985 CTP1801984 CTP1801987 CTP1801988
CTP1801989 CTP1801990 CTP1801995 CTP1801991 CTP1801992 CTP1801994
CTP1801998 CTP1801993 CTP1801999 CTP1801996 CTP1801997 CTP1802003
CTP1802000 CTP1802001 CTP1802002 CTP1802008 CTP1802004 CTP1802005
CTP1802007 CTP1802009 CTP1802006 CTP1802017 CTP1802012 CTP1802016
CTP1802015 CTP1802014 CTP1802018 CTP1802013 CTP1802011 CTP1802010

JRB