Severe Thunderstorm Warning 65, NWS State College, PA

212 
WWUS51 KCTP 170238
SVSCTP

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
1038 PM EDT MON JUL 16 2018

PAC117-170247-
/O.EXP.KCTP.SV.W.0065.000000T0000Z-180717T0245Z/
Tioga PA-
1038 PM EDT MON JUL 16 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EASTERN TIOGA COUNTY WILL
EXPIRE AT 1045 PM EDT...

The storms which prompted the warning have moved east and out of the 
warned area. Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.

LAT...LON 4199 7692 4159 7688 4157 7694 4155 7696
      4155 7719 4170 7724 4200 7738
TIME...MOT...LOC 0237Z 241DEG 28KT 4217 7680 4198 7671 4171 7668 

$$

Lambert

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
956 PM EDT Mon Jul 16 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Very warm and humid weather will persist overnight and into
Tuesday. Showers and thunderstorms will precede a cold front
which will move through during the day on Tuesday. Canadian high
pressure will follow and bring a refreshing change back to much
lower humidity and near to slightly below normal temperatures
for the second half of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A very active late afternoon and evening occurred across a few
locations in northern and western PA. The most significant
weather, in the form of very heavy rain and Flash Flooding
occurred across northern Potter County where rainfall estimates
of up to 4 to 5 inches were substantiated by spotter reports.

Elsewhere, a line of strong to severe TSRA with a few damage
reports of downed trees moved NE across Warren County over the
past few hours, and an isolated TSRA and associated microburst
blew down a few trees in northern Cambria County early on.

An approaching cold front, increasing diffluence aloft, and a
NE/SW 925-850 mb theta-e ridge extending across NW PA through
much of tonight should support additional TSRA with expanding
coverage across the NW Mtns as the night wears on. Warm temps
aloft (about 8-9C at 700 mb) and the lack of significant
forcing further SE will keep POPs fairly minimal until the
predawn hours of Tuesday.

We'll have to deal with one last muggy night in this latest
anomalous warm spell. Given the high sfc dewpoints in the upper
60s to low 70s, and extensive cloud cover, min temps early
Tuesday will once again vary from the upper 60s to low 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
A cold front will reach the northwest mountains around or very
shortly after sunrise Tuesday morning and take much of the
daylight hours to get past Lancaster Co. However, about half of
the area will be dry after 18Z. High PWAT air, increasing deep
layer shear (20-30 kt) and the cold front may lead to strong
thunderstorms depending on the amount of sunshine. SPC has
a portion of east Central PA in a marginal risk for severe. Most
likely timing for the strongest storms would be generally
during the afternoon hours when heating meets up with the front,
forcing and modest shear. Maxes will be highest in the SE, but
most places won't be more than 3-4F away from their normals.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Drier air and building pressure behind the cold front Tuesday
night into Wednesday helps clear things out and drop high
temperatures Wednesday about 5 degrees over Tuesday - but
biggest change will be that lowering dewpoints will make humidity
levels become notably more comfortable.

High pressure over PA Wednesday night will bring the coolest
morning of the week before it slided east off the coast on
Thursday. Flow aloft will shift from northwest to southwest and
surface winds will turn southeast. GFS hints at a marine layer
moving into lower Susq Thursday night and a return of higher dew
points may bring some patchy morning fog.

Next system slowly approaches by late Friday but stalls over the
Great Lakes as inverted trough develops on top of it. This
system will slowly work eastward into the Northeast over the
weekend bringing a return of unsettled weather. A weak low
center trying to form on the coastal front off the Carolinas
Saturday progged to move north to just of the Delmarva for
Sun/Mon, enhancing shower/tstm threat for eastern half of CWA.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The approach of a cold front will keep isold-sct thunderstorms
going through much of the night, mainly in the NW. Not much fog
is expected tonight with mild temps and at least 50pct cloud
cover in most places. However,showers and thunderstorms will be
capable of producing heavy rain leading to temporary mvfr/ifr
vsbys.

The cold front may reach KERI around sunrise and then slow a
little as it should take most of the day to get thru KLNS. But,
BFD should be dry aft 15Z and UNV/JST/AOO may be dry by 18Z.
Some storms with gusty winds and heavy rain are expected, mainly
in IPT, MDT and LNS where peak heating will meet up with
CFROPA. IFR is poss in any of the storms.

Drier and less humid conditions start Tues morning in the NW and
evening in the SE and last for the rest of the week.

.Outlook...

Wed-Fri...AM valley fog N, otherwise, no sig wx expected.

Sat...SHRA/TSRA poss vcty warm front.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Dangelo/Lambert
NEAR TERM...Dangelo/Lambert
SHORT TERM...Dangelo
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...Dangelo/Gartner

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service State College PA
405 AM EDT Mon Jul 16 2018

PAZ004>006-010-011-037-170815-
Warren-McKean-Potter-Elk-Cameron-Tioga-
405 AM EDT Mon Jul 16 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Strong to possibly severe thunderstorms with gusty winds are
possible later today and tonight ahead of an approaching cold front.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

The probability of hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PAZ028-036-056>059-063>066-170815-
Juniata-Franklin-Perry-Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-Cumberland-Adams-
York-Lancaster-
405 AM EDT Mon Jul 16 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Maximum heat index values could approach 100 degrees during the
afternoon and early evening hours.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Strong to possibly severe thunderstorms with gusty winds are
possible Tuesday afternoon along a cold front. Heavy rain with these
thunderstorms may be enough to cause localized flooding issues.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PAZ012-017>019-024>027-033>035-041-042-045-046-049>053-170815-
Northern Clinton-Clearfield-Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Cambria-
Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin-Somerset-Bedford-Fulton-Northern Lycoming-
Sullivan-Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-Montour-
Northumberland-Columbia-
405 AM EDT Mon Jul 16 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

The probability of hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Strong to possibly severe thunderstorms with gusty winds are
possible during the late morning and early afternoon hours on
Tuesday along a cold front.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
933 PM EDT MON JUL 16 2018

PAZ037-170215-
Tioga PA-
933 PM EDT MON JUL 16 2018

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT PARTS OF TIOGA COUNTY UNTIL 1015
PM EDT...

At 933 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a
line extending from near Elkland to near Keeneyville to near Leonard
Harrison State Park. Movement was northeast at 30 mph.

Pea size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph are possible.

Locations impacted include...
Mansfield, Wellsboro, Elkland, Westfield, Lawrenceville, Gaines,
Covington, Millerton, Keeneyville, Leetonia, Leonard Harrison State
Park, Tioga, Knoxville, Roseville, Osceola, Tioga Junction and
Mansfield University.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 4199 7692 4177 7690 4159 7750 4189 7761
      4200 7761 4200 7693
TIME...MOT...LOC 0133Z 238DEG 28KT 4201 7735 4183 7731 4167 7737

Lambert

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
941 PM EDT MON JUL 16 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0840 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 S GENESEE             41.97N  77.90W
07/16/2018                   POTTER             PA   911 CALL CENTER

            MULTIPLE ROADS FLOODED IN BINGHAM AND GENESEE TOWNSHIPS
            IN POTTER COUNTY.

&&

EVENT NUMBER CTP1801976

JRB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
951 PM EDT MON JUL 16 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0845 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 SSE MATTHEWS RUN      41.88N  79.34W
07/16/2018                   WARREN             PA   911 CALL CENTER

            SEVERAL LIMBS DOWN IN THE 2400 BLOCK OF MATHEWS RUN RD

&&

EVENT NUMBER CTP1801977

JRB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
954 PM EDT MON JUL 16 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0835 PM     TSTM WND DMG     EXCELSIOR CORNER        41.69N  79.48W
07/16/2018                   WARREN             PA   911 CALL CENTER

            UPROOTED TREE NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF TOWER LANE AND
            CAMPBELL HILL RD

&&

EVENT NUMBER CTP1801978

JRB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
958 PM EDT MON JUL 16 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0840 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 WNW ALTHOM            41.78N  79.36W
07/16/2018                   WARREN             PA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE DOWN ON THE 4700 BLOCK OF DAVEY HILL RD

&&

EVENT NUMBER CTP1801979

JRB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
959 PM EDT MON JUL 16 2018

PAZ037-170230-
Tioga PA-
959 PM EDT MON JUL 16 2018

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT PARTS OF TIOGA COUNTY UNTIL 1030
PM EDT...

At 959 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a
line extending from Lindley to 6 miles southeast of Lawrenceville to
near Mansfield to Ogdensburg. Movement was northeast at 30 mph.

Pea size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph are possible.

Locations impacted include...
Mansfield, Blossburg, Lawrenceville, Covington, Arnot, Millerton,
Ogdensburg, Tioga, Liberty, Roseville, Tioga Junction and Mansfield
University.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Minor flooding may develop. Do not drive into water covering the
roadway.

&&

LAT...LON 4199 7692 4160 7687 4159 7688 4158 7691
      4156 7696 4155 7700 4155 7715 4187 7723
      4200 7730 4200 7693
TIME...MOT...LOC 0159Z 237DEG 27KT 4202 7711 4192 7707 4180 7703 4160
7699

Lambert