Flash Flood Warning 16, NWS State College, PA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
828 PM EDT Mon Jul 16 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Very warm and humid weather will persist into Tuesday. Showers
and thunderstorms will precede a cold front which will move
through during the day on Tuesday. Canadian high pressure will
follow and bring a refreshing change back to much lower humidity
and near to slightly below normal temperatures for the second
half of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 2 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Best convection so far is off the lake breeze just to our NW.
These are inching eastward thru time. The few cells which
managed to pop off the highest terrain have died quickly. They
were nearly motionless, so anything which can grow up through
the cap of warm air aloft could make very heavy rain. 91/72 here
at the office at 2 PM. Some of the hottest and muggiest we've
seen this summer.

Additional storms are expected to grow before sunset, but then a
short break later this evening and early tonight. Expect more
widespread convection to move in/develop over the NW after
midnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /2 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
A cold front will reach the northwest mountains around or very
shortly after sunrise Tuesday morning and take much of the
daylight hours to get past Lancaster Co. However, about half of
the area will be dry after 18Z. High PWAT air, increasing deep
layer shear (20-30 kt) and the cold front may lead to strong
thunderstorms depending on the amount of sunshine. SPC has
a portion of east Central PA in a marginal risk for severe. Most
likely timing for the strongest storms would be generally
during the afternoon hours when heating meets up with the front,
forcing and modest shear. Maxes will be highest in the SE, but
most places won't be more than 3-4F away from their normals.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Drier air and building pressure behind the cold front Tuesday
night into Wednesday helps clear things out and drop high
temperatures Wednesday about 5 degrees over Tuesday - but
biggest change will be that lowering dewpoints will make humidity
levels become notably more comfortable.

High pressure over PA Wednesday night will bring the coolest
morning of the week before it slided east off the coast on
Thursday. Flow aloft will shift from northwest to southwest and
surface winds will turn southeast. GFS hints at a marine layer
moving into lower Susq Thursday night and a return of higher dew
points may bring some patchy morning fog.

Next system slowly approaches by late Friday but stalls over the
Great Lakes as inverted trough develops on top of it. This
system will slowly work eastward into the Northeast over the
weekend bringing a return of unsettled weather. A weak low
center trying to form on the coastal front off the Carolinas
Saturday progged to move north to just of the Delmarva for
Sun/Mon, enhancing shower/tstm threat for eastern half of CWA.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The approach of a cold front will keep isold-sct thunderstorms
going through much of the night, mainly in the NW. Not much fog
is expected tonight with mild temps and at least 50pct cloud
cover in most places. However,showers and thundertorms will be
capable of producing heavy rain leading to temporary mvfr/ifr
vsbys.

The cold front may reach KERI around sunrise and then slow a
little as it should take most of the day to get thru KLNS. But,
BFD should be dry aft 15Z and UNV/JST/AOO may be dry by 18Z.
Some storms with gusty winds and heavy rain are expected, mainly
in IPT, MDT and LNS where peak heating will meet up with
CFROPA. IFR is poss in any of the storms.

Drier and less humid conditions start Tues morning in the NW and
evening in the SE and last for the rest of the week.

.Outlook...

Wed-Fri...AM valley fog N, otherwise, no sig wx expected.

Sat...SHRA/TSRA poss vcty warm front.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Dangelo
NEAR TERM...Dangelo
SHORT TERM...Dangelo
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...Dangelo/Gartner

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service State College PA
405 AM EDT Mon Jul 16 2018

PAZ004>006-010-011-037-170815-
Warren-McKean-Potter-Elk-Cameron-Tioga-
405 AM EDT Mon Jul 16 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Strong to possibly severe thunderstorms with gusty winds are
possible later today and tonight ahead of an approaching cold front.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

The probability of hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PAZ028-036-056>059-063>066-170815-
Juniata-Franklin-Perry-Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-Cumberland-Adams-
York-Lancaster-
405 AM EDT Mon Jul 16 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Maximum heat index values could approach 100 degrees during the
afternoon and early evening hours.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Strong to possibly severe thunderstorms with gusty winds are
possible Tuesday afternoon along a cold front. Heavy rain with these
thunderstorms may be enough to cause localized flooding issues.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PAZ012-017>019-024>027-033>035-041-042-045-046-049>053-170815-
Northern Clinton-Clearfield-Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Cambria-
Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin-Somerset-Bedford-Fulton-Northern Lycoming-
Sullivan-Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-Montour-
Northumberland-Columbia-
405 AM EDT Mon Jul 16 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

The probability of hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Strong to possibly severe thunderstorms with gusty winds are
possible during the late morning and early afternoon hours on
Tuesday along a cold front.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
721 PM EDT MON JUL 16 2018

PAZ010>012-017-170015-
Northern Clinton PA-Cameron PA-Clearfield PA-Elk PA-
721 PM EDT MON JUL 16 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT PARTS OF ELK...CLEARFIELD...AND
CAMERON COUNTIES UNTIL 815 PM EDT...

At 720 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm 7 miles
south of Hicks Run, moving northeast at 15 mph.

Pea size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph are possible.

Locations impacted include...
Benezette, Hicks Run, Medix Run and Driftwood.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding of small streams and poor drainage areas in
towns. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

Persons in campgrounds should consider seeking sturdy shelter until
this storm passes.

&&

LAT...LON 4113 7821 4113 7841 4121 7844 4133 7839
      4147 7825 4141 7808 4131 7794
TIME...MOT...LOC 2320Z 213DEG 9KT 4126 7823

Lambert

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
726 PM EDT MON JUL 16 2018

PAZ006-170030-
Potter PA-
726 PM EDT MON JUL 16 2018

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT PARTS OF POTTER COUNTY UNTIL 830
PM EDT...

At 726 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a
line extending from near Whitesville to near Genesee. Movement was
northeast at 25 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph are possible.

Locations impacted include...
Genesee, Harrison Valley, Ulysses and Oswayo.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

Persons in campgrounds should consider seeking sturdy shelter until
these storms pass.

&&

LAT...LON 4200 7761 4193 7761 4184 7770 4185 7798
      4193 7807 4200 7805
TIME...MOT...LOC 2326Z 244DEG 23KT 4202 7769 4193 7792

Lambert

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
733 PM EDT MON JUL 16 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0622 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 ENE FLINTON           40.72N  78.49W
07/16/2018                   CAMBRIA            PA   911 CALL CENTER

            A FEW DOWNED TREES AND POWER LINES, ONE OF WHICH FELL
            ON A VEHICLE ON THE 800 BLOCK OF GILL HOLLOW RD.

&&

EVENT NUMBER CTP1801974

JRB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
746 PM EDT MON JUL 16 2018

PAZ004-170045-
Warren PA-
746 PM EDT MON JUL 16 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT PARTS OF WARREN COUNTY UNTIL 845
PM EDT...

At 746 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm over
Enterprise, moving northeast at 20 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph are possible.

Locations impacted include...
Grand Valley, Garland and Tidioute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

Persons in campgrounds should consider seeking sturdy shelter until
this storm passes.

&&

LAT...LON 4189 7947 4171 7913 4163 7924 4163 7961
      4173 7961
TIME...MOT...LOC 2346Z 222DEG 16KT 4164 7954

Lambert

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
832 PM EDT MON JUL 16 2018

PAZ006-012-037-041-170130-
Potter PA-Northern Clinton PA-Northern Lycoming PA-Tioga PA-
832 PM EDT MON JUL 16 2018

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT PARTS OF LYCOMING...POTTER...
TIOGA...AND CLINTON COUNTIES UNTIL 930 PM EDT...

At 832 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a
line extending from near Keating Summit to Tamarack to 6 miles south
of South Renovo. Movement was northeast at 30 mph.

Pea size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph are possible.

Strong thunderstorms will be near...
  Cross Fork around 840 PM EDT.
  Hyner around 850 PM EDT.
  Ole Bull State Park and Coudersport around 855 PM EDT.
  Denton Hill State Park around 905 PM EDT.
  Cammal around 910 PM EDT.
  Slate Run and Leetonia around 915 PM EDT.

Other locations impacted by these storms include Austin, Sweden
Valley, Ski Sawmill Ski Area and Ski Denton Ski Area.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Persons in campgrounds should consider seeking sturdy shelter until
these storms pass.

&&

LAT...LON 4180 7739 4152 7724 4118 7778 4165 7814
      4184 7808 4186 7762
TIME...MOT...LOC 0032Z 220DEG 25KT 4165 7809 4142 7784 4123 7776

Lambert

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
857 PM EDT MON JUL 16 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0802 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 E ENTERPRISE          41.63N  79.57W
07/16/2018                   WARREN             PA   911 CALL CENTER

            1 TREE DOWN AT INTERSECTION OF ROUTE 27 AND ENTERPRISE
            RD

&&

EVENT NUMBER CTP1801975

JRB