Alert archive / Pennsylvania / River Flood Warnings in 2018

River Flood Warning 41, NWS State College, PA

August 13, 2018Dauphin County, Lebanon County, Pennsylvania

NWS State College, PA issued this river flood warning at Aug 13, 2018, 9:16 AM EDT for Dauphin County, Lebanon County, Pennsylvania. It took effect at Aug 13, 2018, 6:07 PM EDT. It was in force for 29 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Aug 13, 2018, 9:16 AM EDT (13:16 UTC)
In effect from: Aug 13, 2018, 6:07 PM EDT
Expired: Aug 14, 2018, 10:43 PM EDT
In force: 29 hr
Issued by: NWS State College, PA
Area: Storm-based polygon
Flood severity: Minor

Counties Dauphin County, PA, Lebanon County, PA

The radar

The State College radar (KCCX), 132 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 13:18 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The river

Written for the forecast point Swatara Creek near Hershey (HERP1). The gauge peaked at 9.21 ft at Aug 14, 2018, 1:00 PM EDT.

Action stage: 6 ft
Minor stage: 7 ft
Moderate stage: 10 ft
Major stage: 14 ft

This gauge today: stage, forecast and historic crests

Stage from the USGS instantaneous record for site 01573560, one reading an hour, from a day before the product to a day after it ended. Flood stages are today's.

The text

As transmitted.

181 
WGUS41 KCTP 131316
FLWCTP
Bulletin - Immediate Broadcast Requested
Flood Warning
National Weather Service State College PA
916 AM EDT Mon Aug 13 2018

...The National Weather Service in State College, PA has issued a 
flood warning for the following rivers in Pennsylvania...

  Swatara Creek Near Hershey

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Safety message...Never drive cars through flooded areas!! The water 
may be too deep to allow safe passage. Most deaths that occur during 
flooding are related to vehicles trying to cross flooded roadways.

An update to this product will be issued this morning.

&&

PAC043-075-140116-
/O.NEW.KCTP.FL.W.0041.180813T2207Z-180814T1342Z/
/HERP1.1.ER.180813T2207Z.180814T0000Z.180814T0742Z.NO/
916 AM EDT Mon Aug 13 2018

The National Weather Service in State College, PA has issued a 

* Flood Warning for 
  The Swatara Creek Near Hershey
* from this evening to Tuesday morning...Or until the warning is 
  cancelled.
* At 9 AM Monday the stage was...4.3 feet.
* Flood stage is 7.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to rise above flood stage by this evening and
  crest near 7.5 feet by this evening.  The river will fall below 
  flood stage by early tomorrow morning.
* At 8.0 feet...The right, or north bank overflows. Several roads are
  affected.

&&

LAT...LON 4038 7663 4034 7659 4027 7662 4024 7668
      4026 7676 4032 7668             

$$

CR

6 follow-up statements

466 
WGUS81 KCTP 131319
FLSCTP
Flood Statement 
National Weather Service State College PA
919 AM EDT Mon Aug 13 2018

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Pennsylvania...

  Swatara Creek At Harper Tavern

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Pennsylvania...

  Swatara Creek Near Hershey

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Safety message...Never drive cars through flooded areas!! The water 
may be too deep to allow safe passage. Most deaths that occur during 
flooding are related to vehicles trying to cross flooded roadways.

An update to this product will be issued this afternoon.

&&

PAC075-107-140118-
/O.EXT.KCTP.FL.W.0040.180813T1317Z-180814T2100Z/
/HTVP1.1.ER.180813T1242Z.180813T1800Z.180814T1500Z.NO/
919 AM EDT Mon Aug 13 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Swatara Creek At Harper Tavern.
* until Tuesday afternoon...Or until the warning is cancelled.
* At 9 AM Monday the stage was 9.0 feet and rising.
* Flood stage is 9.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* The river will crest near 11.0 feet by this afternoon. The river 
  will fall below flood stage late morning tomorrow.
* At 12.0 feet...A number of secondary roads are closed, resulting in
  some evacuations. A few homes are flooded.

&&

LAT...LON 4059 7648 4052 7639 4037 7647 4034 7659
      4038 7663 4043 7658             

$$

PAC043-075-140118-
/O.CON.KCTP.FL.W.0041.180813T2207Z-180814T1342Z/
/HERP1.1.ER.180813T2207Z.180814T0000Z.180814T0742Z.NO/
919 AM EDT Mon Aug 13 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Swatara Creek Near Hershey.
* from this evening to Tuesday morning...Or until the warning is 
  cancelled.
* At 9 AM Monday the stage was 4.3 feet and rising.
* Flood stage is 7.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to rise above flood stage by this evening and
  crest near 7.5 feet by this evening. The river will fall below 
  flood stage by early tomorrow morning.
* At 8.0 feet...The right, or north bank overflows. Several roads are
  affected.

&&

LAT...LON 4038 7663 4034 7659 4027 7662 4024 7668
      4026 7676 4032 7668             

$$

CR

873 
WGUS81 KCTP 140110
FLSCTP
Flood Statement 
National Weather Service State College PA
910 PM EDT Mon Aug 13 2018

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Pennsylvania...

  Swatara Creek Near Hershey

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Safety message...Never drive cars through flooded areas!! The water 
may be too deep to allow safe passage. Most deaths that occur during 
flooding are related to vehicles trying to cross flooded roadways.

An update to this product will be issued Tuesday morning.

&&

PAC043-075-141309-
/O.EXT.KCTP.FL.W.0041.000000T0000Z-180815T1200Z/
/HERP1.1.ER.180814T0000Z.180814T0600Z.180815T0600Z.NO/
910 PM EDT Mon Aug 13 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Swatara Creek Near Hershey.
* At 9 PM Monday the stage was 7.1 feet and rising.
* Flood stage is 7.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* The river will crest near 8.6 feet by after midnight tonight. The 
  river will fall below flood stage early Wednesday morning.
* At 8.0 feet...The right, or north bank overflows. Several roads are
  affected.

&&

LAT...LON 4038 7663 4034 7659 4027 7662 4024 7668
      4026 7676 4032 7668             

$$

Martin

391 
WGUS81 KCTP 140806
FLSCTP
Flood Statement 
National Weather Service State College PA
406 AM EDT Tue Aug 14 2018

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Pennsylvania...

  Swatara Creek At Harper Tavern
  Swatara Creek Near Hershey
  Swatara Creek Above Middletown

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Safety message...Never drive cars through flooded areas!! The water 
may be too deep to allow safe passage. Most deaths that occur during 
flooding are related to vehicles trying to cross flooded roadways.

An update to this product will be issued late this morning.

&&

PAC075-107-142006-
/O.EXT.KCTP.FL.W.0040.000000T0000Z-180816T0730Z/
/HTVP1.2.ER.180813T1242Z.180814T1200Z.180816T0130Z.NO/
406 AM EDT Tue Aug 14 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Swatara Creek At Harper Tavern.
* At 4 AM Tuesday the stage was 13.4 feet and slowly rising.
* Flood stage is 9.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is forecast.
* The river will crest just below 14.0 feet this morning, and 
  fall below flood stage late Wednesday evening.
* At 14.0 feet...A number of homes along the creek are affected. Some
  evacuations are necessary.

&&

LAT...LON 4059 7648 4052 7639 4037 7647 4034 7659
      4038 7663 4043 7658             

$$

PAC043-075-142006-
/O.EXT.KCTP.FL.W.0041.000000T0000Z-180816T0651Z/
/HERP1.1.ER.180814T0000Z.180815T0000Z.180816T0051Z.NO/
406 AM EDT Tue Aug 14 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Swatara Creek Near Hershey.
* At 3 AM Tuesday the stage was 8.0 feet and rising.
* Flood stage is 7.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* The river will crest near 9.2 feet this evening. The river will 
  fall below flood stage Wednesday evening.
* At 10.0 feet...A few homes adjacent to the creek upstream of the 
  Route 39 bridge flood.

&&

LAT...LON 4038 7663 4034 7659 4027 7662 4024 7668
      4026 7676 4032 7668             

$$

PAC043-142006-
/O.CON.KCTP.FL.W.0042.180815T0224Z-180817T0130Z/
/MTLP1.1.ER.180815T0224Z.180816T0000Z.180816T1930Z.UU/
406 AM EDT Tue Aug 14 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Swatara Creek Above Middletown
* from this evening into Thursday evening...Or until the warning is 
  cancelled.
* At 3 AM Tuesday the stage was...8.6 feet.
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to rise above flood stage this evening and 
  crest near 11.7 feet Wednesday evening. The river will fall 
  below flood stage later Thursday.
* At 12.0 feet...Both banks overflow upstream of the Vine Street 
  Bridge and several basements are affected.

&&

LAT...LON 4026 7676 4024 7668 4019 7669 4016 7672
      4018 7675                       

$$

RXR

398 
WGUS81 KCTP 141348
FLSCTP
Flood Statement 
National Weather Service State College PA
948 AM EDT Tue Aug 14 2018

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Pennsylvania...

  Swatara Creek At Harper Tavern
  Swatara Creek Above Middletown
  Swatara Creek Near Hershey
  Susquehanna River At Bloomsburg
  Susquehanna River At Danville

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Safety message...Never drive cars through flooded areas!! The water 
may be too deep to allow safe passage. Most deaths that occur during 
flooding are related to vehicles trying to cross flooded roadways.

An update to this product will be issued later this afternoon.

&&

PAC075-107-150148-
/O.EXT.KCTP.FL.W.0040.000000T0000Z-180815T1500Z/
/HTVP1.2.ER.180813T1242Z.180814T0731Z.180815T0900Z.NO/
948 AM EDT Tue Aug 14 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Swatara Creek At Harper Tavern.
* At 10 AM Tuesday the stage was 12.2 feet and falling.
* Flood stage is 9.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* The river will continue falling to below flood stage by early 
  tomorrow morning.
* At 12.0 feet...A number of secondary roads are closed, resulting in
  some evacuations. A few homes are flooded.

&&

LAT...LON 4059 7648 4052 7639 4037 7647 4034 7659
      4038 7663 4043 7658             

$$

PAC043-150148-
/O.EXT.KCTP.FL.W.0042.180815T0200Z-180817T0300Z/
/MTLP1.1.ER.180815T0200Z.180815T2300Z.180816T2100Z.UU/
948 AM EDT Tue Aug 14 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Swatara Creek Above Middletown.
* from this evening to Thursday evening...Or until the warning is 
  cancelled.
* At 9 AM Tuesday the stage was 9.5 feet and rising.
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to rise above flood stage by tonight and 
  crest near 11.6 feet by tomorrow evening. The river will fall below
  flood stage by Thursday afternoon.
* At 12.0 feet...Both banks overflow upstream of the Vine Street 
  Bridge and several basements are affected.

&&

LAT...LON 4026 7676 4024 7668 4019 7669 4016 7672
      4018 7675                       

$$

PAC043-075-150148-
/O.EXT.KCTP.FL.W.0041.000000T0000Z-180815T2000Z/
/HERP1.1.ER.180814T0000Z.180814T1800Z.180815T1400Z.NO/
948 AM EDT Tue Aug 14 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Swatara Creek Near Hershey.
* At 9 AM Tuesday the stage was 9.0 feet and falling.
* Flood stage is 7.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* The river will crest near 9.3 feet by this afternoon. The river 
  will fall below flood stage late morning tomorrow.
* At 10.0 feet...A few homes adjacent to the creek upstream of the 
  Route 39 bridge flood.

&&

LAT...LON 4038 7663 4034 7659 4027 7662 4024 7668
      4026 7676 4032 7668             

$$

PAC037-150148-
/O.CON.KCTP.FL.W.0043.180815T0900Z-180816T2030Z/
/BMBP1.1.ER.180815T0900Z.180815T2300Z.180816T1430Z.NO/
948 AM EDT Tue Aug 14 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Susquehanna River At Bloomsburg.
* from late tonight to Thursday afternoon...Or until the warning is 
  cancelled.
* At 9 AM Tuesday the stage was 13.7 feet and rising.
* Flood stage is 19.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to rise above flood stage by early tomorrow 
  morning and crest near 20.4 feet by tomorrow evening. The river 
  will fall below flood stage by late Thursday morning.
* At 20.0 feet...High water affects the fairgrounds and the 
  surrounding area.

&&

LAT...LON 4103 7655 4111 7623 4104 7623 4097 7621
      4089 7647                       

$$

PAC037-093-097-119-150148-
/O.CON.KCTP.FL.W.0044.180815T1000Z-180816T2120Z/
/DANP1.1.ER.180815T1000Z.180815T2300Z.180816T1520Z.NO/
948 AM EDT Tue Aug 14 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Susquehanna River At Danville.
* from Wednesday morning to Thursday afternoon...Or until the warning
  is cancelled.
* At 10 AM Tuesday the stage was 14.7 feet and rising.
* Flood stage is 20.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to rise above flood stage by tomorrow morning
  and crest near 21.4 feet by tomorrow evening. The river will fall 
  below flood stage by late Thursday morning.
* At 21.0 feet...Basements flood in homes along Mahoning Creek on the
  right bank of the river.

&&

LAT...LON 4098 7670 4103 7655 4089 7647 4087 7670
      4094 7677                       

$$

698 
WGUS81 KCTP 141924
FLSCTP
Flood Statement 
National Weather Service State College PA
 

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Pennsylvania...

  Susquehanna River At Bloomsburg
  Susquehanna River At Danville
  Swatara Creek Above Middletown
  Swatara Creek Near Hershey

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Safety message...Never drive cars through flooded areas!! The water 
may be too deep to allow safe passage. Most deaths that occur during 
flooding are related to vehicles trying to cross flooded roadways.

An update to this product will be issued later this evening.

&&

PAC037-150723-
/O.EXT.KCTP.FL.W.0043.180815T0630Z-180816T2224Z/
/BMBP1.1.ER.180815T0630Z.180816T0000Z.180816T1624Z.NO/
324 PM EDT Tue Aug 14 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Susquehanna River At Bloomsburg.
* from late tonight to Thursday evening...or until the warning is 
  cancelled.
* At 2 PM Tuesday the stage was 15.6 feet and rising.
* Flood stage is 19.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to rise above flood stage by after midnight 
  tonight and crest near 21.2 feet by tomorrow evening. The river 
  will fall below flood stage by early Thursday afternoon.
* At 22.0 feet...A number of homes located between the fairgrounds 
  and the river are affected by high water. Several buildings at the 
  airport are also affected.

&&

LAT...LON 4103 7655 4111 7623 4104 7623 4097 7621
      4089 7647                       

$$

PAC037-093-097-119-150723-
/O.EXT.KCTP.FL.W.0044.180815T0700Z-180816T2327Z/
/DANP1.1.ER.180815T0700Z.180816T0000Z.180816T1727Z.NO/
324 PM EDT Tue Aug 14 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Susquehanna River At Danville.
* from late tonight to Thursday evening...or until the warning is 
  cancelled.
* At 3 PM Tuesday the stage was 16.5 feet and rising.
* Flood stage is 20.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to rise above flood stage by early tomorrow 
  morning and crest near 22.3 feet by tomorrow evening. The river 
  will fall below flood stage by early Thursday afternoon.
* At 23.0 feet...Flooding occurs at the state hospital grounds on the
  east side of town. Backwater produces flooding on Sechler Run in 
  the center of town.

&&

LAT...LON 4098 7670 4103 7655 4089 7647 4087 7670
      4094 7677                       

$$

PAC043-150723-
/O.EXT.KCTP.FL.W.0042.180814T2100Z-180817T0000Z/
/MTLP1.1.ER.180814T2100Z.180816T0000Z.180816T1800Z.UU/
324 PM EDT Tue Aug 14 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Swatara Creek Above Middletown.
* until Thursday evening...or until the warning is cancelled.
* At 2 PM Tuesday the stage was 10.3 feet and rising.
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to rise above flood stage by late this 
  afternoon and crest near 11.3 feet by tomorrow evening. The river 
  will fall below flood stage by early Thursday afternoon.
* At 11.0 feet...Minor overbank flooding begins near the Vine Street 
  Bridge downstream to the Susquehanna River.

&&

LAT...LON 4026 7676 4024 7668 4019 7669 4016 7672
      4018 7675                       

$$

PAC043-075-150723-
/O.EXT.KCTP.FL.W.0041.000000T0000Z-180815T1000Z/
/HERP1.1.ER.180814T0000Z.180814T1615Z.180815T0400Z.NO/
324 PM EDT Tue Aug 14 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Swatara Creek Near Hershey.
* At 3 PM Tuesday the stage was 9.0 feet and falling.
* Flood stage is 7.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* The river will continue falling to below flood stage by after 
  midnight tonight.
* At 10.0 feet...A few homes adjacent to the creek upstream of the 
  Route 39 bridge flood.

&&

LAT...LON 4038 7663 4034 7659 4027 7662 4024 7668
      4026 7676 4032 7668             

$$

913 
WGUS81 KCTP 150243
FLSCTP
Flood Statement 
National Weather Service State College PA
1043 PM EDT Tue Aug 14 2018

...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers in 
Pennsylvania...

  Swatara Creek Near Hershey

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Pennsylvania...

  Susquehanna River At Bloomsburg
  Susquehanna River At Danville
  Swatara Creek Above Middletown

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Safety message...Never drive cars through flooded areas!! The water 
may be too deep to allow safe passage. Most deaths that occur during 
flooding are related to vehicles trying to cross flooded roadways.

An update to this product will be issued Wednesday morning. 

&&

PAC037-151442-
/O.EXT.KCTP.FL.W.0043.180815T0600Z-180816T2152Z/
/BMBP1.1.ER.180815T0600Z.180816T0000Z.180816T1552Z.NO/
1043 PM EDT Tue Aug 14 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Susquehanna River At Bloomsburg.
* from late tonight to Thursday afternoon...or until the warning is 
  cancelled.
* At 10 PM Tuesday the stage was 18.2 feet and rising.
* Flood stage is 19.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to rise above flood stage after midnight 
  tonight and crest near 21.4 feet by tomorrow evening. The river 
  will fall below flood stage by late Thursday morning.
* At 22.0 feet...A number of homes located between the fairgrounds 
  and the river are affected by high water. Several buildings at the 
  airport are also affected.

&&

LAT...LON 4103 7655 4111 7623 4104 7623 4097 7621
      4089 7647                       

$$

PAC037-093-097-119-151442-
/O.EXT.KCTP.FL.W.0044.180815T0717Z-180817T0040Z/
/DANP1.1.ER.180815T0717Z.180816T0000Z.180816T1840Z.NO/
1043 PM EDT Tue Aug 14 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Susquehanna River At Danville.
* from late tonight to Thursday evening...or until the warning is 
  cancelled.
* At 10 PM Tuesday the stage was 18.7 feet and rising.
* Flood stage is 20.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to rise above flood stage tonight and crest 
  near 22.5 feet by tomorrow evening. The river will fall below flood 
  stage by early Thursday afternoon.
* At 23.0 feet...Flooding occurs at the state hospital grounds on the
  east side of town. Backwater produces flooding on Sechler Run in 
  the center of town.

&&

LAT...LON 4098 7670 4103 7655 4089 7647 4087 7670
      4094 7677                       

$$

PAC043-151442-
/O.EXT.KCTP.FL.W.0042.000000T0000Z-180816T2000Z/
/MTLP1.1.ER.180816T0900Z.180816T1200Z.180816T1400Z.UU/
1043 PM EDT Tue Aug 14 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Swatara Creek Above Middletown.
* At 10 PM Tuesday the stage was 10.6 feet and rising.
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* The creek is forecast to rise above flood stage by Thursday morning
  and crest near 11.1 feet by Thursday morning. The creek will fall 
  below flood stage by late Thursday morning.
* At 11.0 feet...Minor overbank flooding begins near the Vine Street 
  Bridge downstream to the Susquehanna River.

&&

LAT...LON 4026 7676 4024 7668 4019 7669 4016 7672
      4018 7675                       

$$

PAC043-075-150313-
/O.CAN.KCTP.FL.W.0041.000000T0000Z-180815T1000Z/
/HERP1.1.ER.180814T0000Z.180814T1615Z.180815T0201Z.NO/
1043 PM EDT Tue Aug 14 2018

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  The Swatara Creek Near Hershey.
* At 10 PM Tuesday the stage was 6.9 feet and falling.
* The creek fell below flood stage at 1015 PM Tuesday.
* Flood stage is 7.0 feet.
* The creek will continue falling to 3.2 feet by Friday morning.
* At 7.0 feet...The right, or north bank begins to overflow. Several 
  roadways upstream of the gage are affected by high water.

&&

LAT...LON 4038 7663 4034 7659 4027 7662 4024 7668
      4026 7676 4032 7668             

$$
MC/KF

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this river flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS State College, PA wrote its last area forecast discussion before this river flood warning went out at Aug 13, 7:32 AM EDT, 1 hour 44 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Aug 13, 7:32 AM EDT, 1 hour 44 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
732 AM EDT Mon Aug 13 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper low will lift slowly eastward across Pennsylvania
today and Tuesday. A ridge of high pressure will build into the
region on Wednesday, followed by the arrival of a weak cold
front late in the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Upper level diffluence beneath jet exit region, combined with
anomalous pwats and instability, is producing persistent heavy
showers and thunderstorms across our eastern counties early
this morning. Ongoing flash flooding is occurring as of 09Z and
HREFV2 and HRRR both support additional heavy rain in this
general area later today. Would expect these convection-allowing
models to be relatively reliable under a strongly forced
environment ahead of cut off upper low.

Across the western half of the forecast area, expect a relatively
quiet morning to give way to a marked increase in convection
this afternoon, the result of diurnal heating and pool of cool
air aloft. Latest guidance supports POPs ranging from near 100
pct across the Susq Valley, to around 70 pct across the western
counties.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
Flash flood threat should diminish this evening, as convection
dwindles with loss of heating and large scale forcing associated
with jet streak lifts north of the region.

Lingering cool temps aloft, combined with diurnal heating, will
likely lead to increasing convection again Tuesday afternoon.
Best large scale forcing, as inferred by model 500-300mb qvec
convergence fields, will be lifting northeast of Pa, so flash
flood threat not as great as today. However, wet ground could
leave the eastern counties susceptible to additional flooding
issues Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
All medium range guidance continues to point toward a dry and
warm Wednesday, as ridge builds in behind departing upper low.
A mid level shortwave and associated cold front is progged
approach late in the week, bringing a renewed chance of
showers/tstorms. 00Z GEFS suggests a few lingering, post-frontal
showers are possible Saturday with passage of upper level
shortwave, then dry and seasonable conditions appear likely
Sunday upon arrival of surface high.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
It took a while, but ceiling restrictions (scattered vsby
restrictions) finally worked into most areas this morning.
Bigger impacts are currently from ongoing organized
convection/scattered thunderstorms with heavy rain east of the
Susquehanna River that will continue to bring widespread
impacts into mid/late morning as they drift slowly eastward.

As ceilings slowly improve, scattered convection will become
more numerous areawide by midday and bring roaming restrictions
into the evening hours. Ceiling/vsby restrictions spread back
over the region tonight.

.Outlook...

Mon-Tue...AM cig/vsby restrictions likely with slow improvement.
Additionally, SHRA/TSRA with associated restrictions especially
in the afternoon.

Wed...AM fog. Otherwise no six wx.

Thu-Fri...AM fog. Otherwise, scattered showers/tstms will bring
local restrictions.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch through this evening for PAZ037-041-042-046-
049>053-057>059-065-066.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Fitzgerald
NEAR TERM...Fitzgerald
SHORT TERM...Fitzgerald
LONG TERM...Fitzgerald
AVIATION...Jung/RXR

Hazardous weather outlook, Aug 13, 8:37 AM EDT, 39 minutes before

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service State College PA
837 AM EDT Mon Aug 13 2018

PAZ005-006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>036-045-056-063-064-141245-
McKean-Potter-Elk-Cameron-Northern Clinton-Clearfield-
Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Cambria-Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin-
Juniata-Somerset-Bedford-Fulton-Franklin-Southern Clinton-Perry-
Cumberland-Adams-
837 AM EDT Mon Aug 13 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms today will pose an isolated risk of heavy
downpours and localized flash flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PAZ049-050-052-057-059-065-066-141245-
Union-Snyder-Northumberland-Dauphin-Lebanon-York-Lancaster-
837 AM EDT Mon Aug 13 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to
weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more
information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PAZ004-141245-
Warren-
837 AM EDT Mon Aug 13 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PAZ037-041-042-046-051-053-058-141245-
Tioga-Northern Lycoming-Sullivan-Southern Lycoming-Montour-Columbia-
Schuylkill-
837 AM EDT Mon Aug 13 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to
weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more
information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Scattered thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon will pose an isolated risk
of heavy downpours and localized flash flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

In the hours before

Local storm report, Aug 13, 8:23 AM EDT, 53 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
823 AM EDT MON AUG 13 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0755 AM     HEAVY RAIN       PINE GROVE              40.49N  78.62W
08/13/2018  M5.61 INCH       CAMBRIA            PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            24 HOUR TOTAL. 3.49 INCHES SINCE MIDNIGHT.

&&

EVENT NUMBER CTP1802154

COLBERT

Local storm report, Aug 13, 8:25 AM EDT, 51 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
825 AM EDT MON AUG 13 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       3 N PENNSDALE           41.29N  76.80W
08/13/2018  M1.10 INCH       LYCOMING           PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SINCE MIDNIGHT.

&&

EVENT NUMBER CTP1802155

COLBERT

Local storm report, Aug 13, 8:26 AM EDT, 50 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
826 AM EDT MON AUG 13 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0630 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 N HUGHESVILLE         41.25N  76.73W
08/13/2018  M2.20 INCH       LYCOMING           PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SINCE MIDNIGHT.

&&

EVENT NUMBER CTP1802156

COLBERT

Local storm report, Aug 13, 8:45 AM EDT, 31 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
845 AM EDT MON AUG 13 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0755 AM     HEAVY RAIN       PINE GROVE              40.55N  76.39W
08/13/2018  M5.61 INCH       SCHUYLKILL         PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            24 HOUR TOTAL. 3.49 INCHES SINCE MIDNIGHT.

&&

EVENT NUMBER CTP1802157

COLBERT

Local storm report, Aug 13, 8:53 AM EDT, 23 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
853 AM EDT MON AUG 13 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0852 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 W EXCHANGE            41.11N  76.71W
08/13/2018  M2.85 INCH       MONTOUR            PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SINCE MIDNIGHT.

&&

EVENT NUMBER CTP1802158

COLBERT

Local storm report, Aug 13, 8:56 AM EDT, 20 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
856 AM EDT MON AUG 13 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0853 AM     FLASH FLOOD      LAPORTE                 41.42N  76.49W
08/13/2018                   SULLIVAN           PA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EVACUATIONS UNDERWAY ACROS SOUTHWESTERN PART OF
            SULLIVAN COUNTY.

&&

EVENT NUMBER CTP1802159

COLBERT

The office that day

Everything else NWS State College, PA issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Aug 12, 9:58 PM EDT	Areal Flood Advisory	CTP	Schuylkill	3 hr
Aug 13, 1:46 AM EDT	Flash Flood Watch	CTP	Adams, Bedford, Blair, Cambria, Centre, Clinton and 21 more	43 hr
Aug 13, 1:53 AM EDT	Areal Flood Advisory	CTP	Lancaster	3 hr
Aug 13, 2:20 AM EDT	Areal Flood Advisory	CTP	Lycoming, Montour, Northumberland, Union	3 hr
Aug 13, 2:24 AM EDT	Areal Flood Advisory	CTP	Dauphin, Lancaster, Lebanon, Schuylkill, York	4 hr
Aug 13, 4:03 AM EDT	Flash Flood Warning	CTP	Lancaster	3 hr
Aug 13, 4:17 AM EDT	Flash Flood Warning	CTP	Columbia, Lycoming, Montour, Northumberland, Union	9 hr
Aug 13, 4:26 AM EDT	Flash Flood Warning	CTP	Dauphin, Lebanon, Schuylkill	6 hr
Aug 13, 5:47 AM EDT	Areal Flood Advisory	CTP	Sullivan	3 hr
Aug 13, 6:05 AM EDT	Flash Flood Warning	CTP	Sullivan	6 hr
Aug 13, 6:31 AM EDT	Flash Flood Warning	CTP	Columbia	6 hr
Aug 13, 6:34 AM EDT	Areal Flood Advisory	CTP	Cumberland	3 hr
Aug 13, 6:38 AM EDT	Areal Flood Advisory	CTP	Dauphin, Lancaster, Lebanon, Schuylkill, York	3 hr
Aug 13, 6:47 AM EDT	Areal Flood Advisory	CTP	Lancaster	3 hr
Aug 13, 7:04 AM EDT	Flash Flood Warning	CTP	Columbia, Lycoming	6 hr
Aug 13, 7:22 AM EDT	River Flood Warning	CTP	Lebanon, Schuylkill	32 hr
Aug 13, 8:12 AM EDT	Areal Flood Advisory	CTP	Schuylkill	3 hr
Aug 13, 10:01 AM EDT	Areal Flood Advisory	CTP	Lycoming, Sullivan	4 hr
Aug 13, 10:39 AM EDT	Areal Flood Warning	CTP	Columbia, Dauphin, Lebanon, Northumberland, Schuylkill	6 hr
Aug 13, 11:10 AM EDT	Areal Flood Advisory	CTP	Somerset	3 hr
Aug 13, 11:23 AM EDT	Flash Flood Warning	CTP	Lycoming, Sullivan	3 hr
Aug 13, 11:58 AM EDT	Areal Flood Warning	CTP	Sullivan	6 hr
Aug 13, 12:03 PM EDT	Areal Flood Advisory	CTP	Cambria	3 hr
Aug 13, 12:05 PM EDT	Areal Flood Advisory	CTP	Somerset	3 hr
Aug 13, 12:51 PM EDT	Areal Flood Warning	CTP	Columbia, Lycoming, Montour	6 hr
Aug 13, 1:05 PM EDT	Areal Flood Advisory	CTP	Bedford, Franklin, Fulton, Somerset	3 hr
Aug 13, 4:03 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	CTP	Cambria	27 min
Aug 13, 4:32 PM EDT	Areal Flood Warning	CTP	Columbia, Dauphin, Lebanon, Northumberland, Schuylkill	3 hr
Aug 13, 5:19 PM EDT	Areal Flood Advisory	CTP	Centre, Clearfield, Huntingdon	3 hr
Aug 13, 5:53 PM EDT	Areal Flood Advisory	CTP	Cumberland, Franklin, Fulton, Huntingdon, Perry	3 hr
Aug 13, 6:15 PM EDT	Areal Flood Warning	CTP	Sullivan	12 hr
Aug 13, 6:45 PM EDT	Areal Flood Warning	CTP	Columbia, Lycoming, Montour	12 hr
Aug 13, 7:17 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	CTP	Lancaster	58 min
Aug 13, 7:29 PM EDT	Areal Flood Warning	CTP	Columbia, Dauphin, Lebanon, Northumberland, Schuylkill	3 hr

Nearby

River Flood Warnings in Pennsylvania, 2018 Every river flood warning in 2018

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive; the gauge from the NWS water service and the USGS.