Flash Flood Watch 15, NWS State College, PA

Adams County, PA, Bedford County, PA, Blair County, PA, Cambria County, PA, Centre County, PA, Clinton County, PA, Columbia County, PA, Cumberland County, PA, Dauphin County, PA, Franklin County, PA, Fulton County, PA, Huntingdon County, PA, Juniata County, PA, Lancaster County, PA, Lebanon County, PA, Lycoming County, PA, Mifflin County, PA, Montour County, PA, Northumberland County, PA, Perry County, PA, Schuylkill County, PA, Snyder County, PA, Somerset County, PA, Sullivan County, PA, Tioga County, PA, Union County, PA, York County, PA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
848 PM EDT Sun Aug 12 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A cut off upper low over Lake Erie will slowly lift east across
Pennsylvania Monday and Tuesday. A ridge of high pressure will
build into the region on Wednesday, followed by the arrival of
a weak cold front late in the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
Heavy rain showers are slowly decresing in intensity this
evening. As conditions begin to improve, have allowed FLS and
FFW products to expire upon coordination with emergency
officials. While the area of heavy caused issues this evening,
about 95% of the forecast area enjoyed pleasant and dry
conditions.

Lift in the favored left exit region of potent upper jet streak
will keep slgt chc showers going overnight over the eastern
half of the state. Short term, high res HRRR shows another bout
of heavy rain over Schuylkill county overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
Upper low becomes centered over central PA on Monday. With cool
air aloft, combined with diurnal heating and sufficient low
level and deep layer moisture, we should see a marked increase
in diurnally- driven convection Monday afternoon. Keeping POPs
in the likely to categorical ranges for Monday afternoon and
evening as a result. Some discussion of locally heavy rainfall
threat and while eastern areas appear more prone based on
synoptic setup and recent heavy rainfall, want to hold off on
any headline issuance to better place a Watch box in the 24 to
30 hour timeframe. The plume of anomalous pwats remain well
east of Pa, so the flash flood risk is on the lower side for
central and western PA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Not much signal for any large pattern change. Looking at a
tendency to semi-phase 3 bundles of energy with time. New 12Z
GFS trending toward recent runs of the EC. Same trends all
season.

Anyway, not a lot of change.

For next Sunday, went with mainly the superblend, but lower
POPS.

Otherwise mainly small changes.

Still looking at showers and storms Monday night into Tuesday
evening. I did up POPS some across the south central areas
Monday night, given POPs, location of the upper lvl low, trends
this wet summer season, and to fit in better with others.

Wednesday into Thursday still look mainly dry, as weak ridging
occurs over western PA. There could be a shower across the far
northwest late Wednesday into Thursday morning. Showers and
storms more likely late Thursday evening into Friday, as warm
advection sets up.

Weak cold front moves across the region late Friday, so I still
think Saturday will be mainly dry.

For Sunday, highest chc of showers and storms looks to be
across the south, based on the 00Z EC and comparison of recent
runs of several models.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions generally prevail across central PA this evening.
While there are some pretty heavy showers and thunderstorms
around likely reducing visibilities likely into the IFR range,
these have avoided TAF locations.

Light winds and low level moisture expected to produce
widespread fog and low stratus overnight at most airfields.
Problem for Monday is how quickly and efficiently these lower
clouds and fog will dissipate, with very light wind flow.

Short term guidance suggests that MVFR fog could prevail in the
east much of the day. Based on guidance and grids (official
forecast) have bumped up all TAFs to include VCSH during the
afternoon, with categorical SHRA in KMDT and KLNS in the
afternoon.

For Monday, convection expected to be more widespread that
Sunday.

.Outlook...

Mon-Tue...AM cig/vsby restrictions likely with slow improvement.
Additionally, SHRA/TSRA with associated restrictions especially
in the afternoon.

Wed...AM fog. Otherwise no six wx.

Thu-Fri...AM fog. Otherwise, scattered showers/tstms will bring
local restrictions.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DeVoir/Martin
NEAR TERM...DeVoir/Tyburski
SHORT TERM...DeVoir
LONG TERM...Martin
AVIATION...Jung

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service State College PA
615 AM EDT Sun Aug 12 2018

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056>059-063>066-131015-
Warren-McKean-Potter-Elk-Cameron-Northern Clinton-Clearfield-
Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Cambria-Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin-
Juniata-Somerset-Bedford-Fulton-Franklin-Tioga-Northern Lycoming-
Sullivan-Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-Montour-
Northumberland-Columbia-Perry-Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-Cumberland-
Adams-York-Lancaster-
615 AM EDT Sun Aug 12 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

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