Heat Advisory 3, NWS State College, PA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
203 PM EDT Wed Jul 4 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Heat and humidity will continue through at least Friday morning
before a cold front pushes Souheast through the region late
Thursday into early Friday. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms
with locally heavy downpours are possible this afternoon and
again Thursday before the cold front generates widespread storms
Thursday night. Cooler and less humid air moving in behind the
cold front will last all weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A wavy, quasi-stnry low-level frontal boundary over the
northern tier of PA late this morning has fired and maintained
rather deep updrafts (and slow, very heavy rain producing TSRA)
during the otherwise convective min period of the day.

Recently issued a FLash Flood Watch for 5 of our Northern Tier
Counties through 03Z Thu, and WPC followed up by upgrading
their Day 1 ERO to a Slight Risk for approx the NE third of PA.

Localized radar estimates of around 3 inches within a 90 minute
period have occurred across portions of Potter and Mckean
Counties over the past few hours and have been covered with
Flood Advisories so far, as the new convective development  has
been sagging slowly to SSE along the still relatively tight
outflow boundaries.

The best cape begins to focus across Central PA and the Laurel
Highlands this afternoon and some near term high res models show
a distinct, elongated cold pool just south of I-80 at 21Z today in
response to the deep convection initiated along the slowly
drifting front/outflow boundary from the present late morning
convection up north.

PWATs off the 04/14Z RAP are at, or slightly above 2 inches
across the entire CWA, so any locations that sees training TSRA
could pick up a quick 1-2.5 inches of rain within an hour and
experience at least minor flooding concerns. May need to extend
the FlasH Flood Watch further south based on upcoming CAMs
runs.

Temps and apparent temps will tickle heat Advisory Criteria once
again across our SE zones. However, more in the way of clouds
than recent days with scattered-areas of more widespread
convection will trim max temps in most places to the mid-upper
80s across the southern valleys, and low-mid 80s elsewhere.

Therefore, we will stay away from a heat advy at this point.
But, further collaboration and thought could change this course.

Main point for an advy is that a great percentage of people
will be outdoors at some point today, and should be aware of the
dangers of the heat and humidity. An advy might keep it in
their mind to take precautions to protect against heat-related
illness.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As the preponderance of guidance has seemed to indicate over the
last few days, we should see lots of the convection die down in
the early evening. This would bode well for many fireworks
displays.

However, some storms will linger like this evening. Again,
overall coverage will make it very difficult to tell anyone that
it will not rain on their specific display at 9 PM. But, will
drop PoPs from likely (60) to low chance (30) percentages at 8
PM (00Z). NAM and GFS both push the last of the convection out
to the fringes of the CWA during the early evening. But, the
CAMs keep some in the middle of the CWA then. Will keep with the
operational guidance and consistency on this matter. The rest
of the night seems dry. A mention of fog is not a bad idea,
either. Persistence is a friend in stretches like this.

The sfc wind becomes more SWrly in the west for the day on
Thursday and should help to focus some increase in moisture
there. A lake breeze in the NW and the terrain elsewhere along
the Alleghenies could provide focal points for convection. Upper
heights slowly lower a few decameters thru the day and Thursday
night as a weak pre-frontal trough moves in from the NW. So, it
should be easier to get more convection going. Day2 outlook from
SPC does indicate that slightly stronger winds aloft on Thurs
PM could support isolated wind damage. Thursday night looks
very disorganized, but could be the time to put the highest PoPs
in for the NW half of the area. The front nears the NW around
12Z Fri, and moves through with some alacrity on Friday morning.
All guidance pushes the front thru all but the far SE by the
middle of the afternoon. Therefore, it would be tough to see
strong convection without the benefit of daytime/peak heating
for all but the SE on Friday. But, the PoPs should be OK at
categorical for the morning and early aftn for the central and
srn zones.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
*Cooler and less humid air will arrive this weekend

The cold front should be well to our south at 00Z Sat. Drier and
There is some question as to how much upper ridging can rebound
into early next week. Relief from the relentlessly hot/humid
weather will arrive this weekend as cooler and less humid air
sweeps southeast from Canada.

Showers may drop in from the Great Lakes in mid-week, but Sat-
Mon look dry with seasonable temps.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Cluster of showers and thunderstorms over central Pennsylvania
will sag to the south and east this afternoon and evening. HRRR
has had a good handle on the general movement of this area so
have used current radar along with HRRR movement for the short
term segment.

Similar set up tomorrow as today so used persistence from last
night and early today for the extended portion of the forecast.

.Outlook...

Fri...Shower or thunderstorm impacts possible, mainly in the
morning.

Sat-Mon...No sig wx expected.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch until 11 PM EDT this evening for PAZ004>006-
010>012-017>019-024>027-037-041-042-045-046-049>053.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Lambert
NEAR TERM...Lambert
SHORT TERM...Dangelo
LONG TERM...Gartner/Steinbugl
AVIATION...Tyburski

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