Flash Flood Watch 5, NWS State College, PA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1051 PM EDT Fri Jun 1 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry air over the Great Lakes will attempt to push southeast
into Pennsylvania tonight. It will likely stall out half way
through the Commonwealth. The upper trough linked to the cold
front will become detached from the jet stream as a cut off low
over the Mid Atlantic region Sunday. The upper low will lift out
next week ahead of an anomalous upper trough building over the
northeast conus.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Heaviest rain now over Adams and Lancaster and filling in over
York. This is exactly how the CAMs from the last 1-2 hours have
been going - centering the heaviest rain there. Tropical
moisture is still present and the cap of earlier is moot. Cold
pool from earlier convection has added the lift to make it go.
The trouble appears to be the heavy rain also impinging on the
srn parts of those same counties from MD. This could shortly
lead to flooding with FFGs lowest in srn York Co, and more
headroom in Adams and Lanc Cos, but still less than 2.2"/hr.
Expect that area to get the most rain over the next 3 hrs, and
we will need to watch it carefully. Considering FFWatch for
those SErn-most Cos for the overnight.

Prev...
Convection fired all around the area where it remained
cool/stable the longest today - except in the SE - as of yet.
The cluster of storms over the scent counties is slinking away,
but has produced 1-3 inches of rain in a short amount of time.
Convection from NY also died for the most part as it moved into
the state. Cooling with loss of daylight will further detract
from the potency of the storms. However, the efficient rain
process will still leave a threat of minor flooding in mainly
the srn part of the state early tonight. Drier air not showing
up yet off to our NW, at least on this side of the ponds, as
dewpoints remain in the m60s in ERI and BUF.

Latest HRRR and RAP indicate that storms/showers may continue
through much of the night along the Mason-Dixon Line. HRRR even
suggests a flare up of convection over the Lower Susq Valley -
esp in York and Adams counties around midnight. The convergence
of storms occurring over the ern WV panhandle should stay to our
south, but will need to keep POPs high in the south and
continue to watch for isolated flooding problems.

Tweaks to temps/sky not necessary.

Prev...
Weak mid level capping inversion has been successful in
inhibiting initiation thus far this afternoon. CAMs show most
realistic development taking place along lake breeze front from
Lake Erie which is just now developing as per GOES-16 vis and
radar imagery.

Still dealing with rich subtropical moisture throughout the
area, as has been the case since Wednesday. Still expect
diurnal heating of high PW air mass to generate moderate CAPEs
over the NW and parts of the south. Convective evolution should
be close to Thu afternoon. CAMs weaken the lake breeze line as
it reaches into my CWA while any other diurnally driven
convection weakens into a larger area of light to moderate
showers after dark as it crosses central PA this evening. Weak
0-6km shear indicates convection will be pulse-type, with little
chance of organized severe weather. Given high PW, can't rule
out isolated rainfall amounts of 2+ inches, creating localized
flooding issues. Still in MRGL outlook for excessive rain from
WPC, with SLGT risk limited to south of Mason Dixon line.

Diffuse cold front pushes southeast across the region overnight,
with gradually diminishing band of showers accompanying it. Weak
wind shift to the north will be the other impact. Mins won't
drop off all that much, ranging from the upper 50s through the
upper 60s from north to south.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
Northern and central PA should enjoy drier conditions on
Saturday as the northerly flow shunts instability and high deep
layer moisture to the south. Models track a wave along stalled
boundary south of the Mason Dixon Line...brushing the south with
low chance POPs and cloudy skies. Expect at least partial
clearing central and north. highs will generally be in the mid
to upper 70s..except low 70s over the Alleghenies.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Model and ensemble guidance offer a reasonably similar large
scale pattern evolution over the Mid Atlantic region this
period. A cut off upper low over the Mid Atlantic on Sunday
will be absorbed by an anomalous upper level trough building
into the northeast conus the first half of next week. Under this
pattern, confidence is better than average in weather
conditions staying "unsettled" with repeated/daily rain chances
through early next week. Drier conditions appear likely by
Wednesday, as the upper trough axis passes east of Pa.

Temperatures will trend relatively cool, with the upper level
trough influence holding readings near to below average for
early June. However, a moderating trend is likely by late next
week, as upper trough begins to lift out.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

Showers will be relegated to the lower half of the state. VCTS
with brief periods of TSRA are still possible through the 08Z at
MDT and LNS. Another line of convection will be moving from the
south into Southeast PA. These storms are slow moving and are
slowing drifting to the southeast and will slowly weaken and end
by 09Z at the latest. Lower ceilings then work in again tonight
in NW/N flow. Have brought in IFR cigs to the western TAF sites,
with MVFR elsewhere. Given the moisture at the SFC and southerly
winds, IFR is possible at LNS. Cigs and vsbys will slowly
improve late tomorrow morning.

.Outlook...

Sat...AM low cigs possible Laurel Highlands and N Mtns.

Sun...AM low cigs possible, mainly KJST.

Mon...Patchy AM fog, then ceiling restrictions likely.

Tue...Patchy AM fog.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch until 8 AM EDT Saturday for PAZ064>066.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DeVoir/Fitzgerald
NEAR TERM...Dangelo
SHORT TERM...DeVoir/Fitzgerald
LONG TERM...Fitzgerald/Gartner
AVIATION...DeVoir/Ceru

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service State College PA
1041 PM EDT Fri Jun 1 2018

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056>059-063-030245-
Warren-McKean-Potter-Elk-Cameron-Northern Clinton-Clearfield-
Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Cambria-Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin-
Juniata-Somerset-Bedford-Fulton-Franklin-Tioga-Northern Lycoming-
Sullivan-Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-Montour-
Northumberland-Columbia-Perry-Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-Cumberland-
1041 PM EDT Fri Jun 1 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PAZ064>066-030245-
Adams-York-Lancaster-
1041 PM EDT Fri Jun 1 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to
weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more
information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to
weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more
information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
149 AM EDT SAT JUN 02 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0125 AM     FLASH FLOOD      WILLOW STREET           39.98N  76.27W
06/02/2018                   LANCASTER          PA   911 CALL CENTER

            NUMEROUS ROADS IMPASSABLE THORUGHOUT WILLOW STREET

&&

EVENT NUMBER CTP1801876

TYBURSKI

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