Special Weather Statement, NWS Cleveland, OH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
312 PM EDT Thu Jul 26 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front over lower Michigan will move southeast across the
local area tonight. High pressure will build over the region
from the north Friday through the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Things have been slow to get going and have actually noted a
decrease in intensity of the storms approaching the west end of
the area. Still expecting a broken line of storms to develop and
move across the local area this evening. The line should reach
the I-71 corridor between 6 and 7 pm. Most areas can expect a 2
to 4 hour period of possible showers and storms. Things will dry
out quickly behind the front with TOL area dry by 00z. Dynamics
are pretty marginal today with very weak mid level lapse rates.
Surface winds have picked up today so low level mixing has
occurred which has lowered dewpoints slightly and held
instability back. The radar will need monitoring this evening
but probably will see no more than a couple severe storms if
that. There could be a few residual showers downwind of the lake
overnight. Coverage should be limited. Better chances for
showers occur Friday afternoon and evening at the east end of
the area as 850 mb temps dip to around 10 degrees. Local schemes
and the cu rule show skies becoming SCT-BKN tomorrow afternoon
most areas. By early Saturday most of the clouds will be gone
as high pressure wins out for good.

Temps kind of tricky with a distinct airmass change expected
during the period. Because of that have not strayed too far from
guidance.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A great weekend is in store for the area as zonal flow remains
dominant over the region. Daytime high temperatures are expected
to remain in the mid to upper 70s...around 5 to 8 degrees below
normal.

A warm front will slowly move north toward southern Ohio Sunday into
Monday. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible ahead of the warm
front...especially during the day on Monday. Temperatures are
expected to warm a few degrees between Sunday afternoon and Monday
afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Deep upper level troughiness and low pressure will move northeast
out of the Mississippi Valley region.  As this transition occurs,
the low pressure will weaken and the trough will begin to weaken as
well by the time it reaches the forecast area Thursday.  Eventually,
high pressure over the western Atlantic Ocean will build back west
into the forecast area by Friday.

Surface low pressure in association with the upper level low
pressure will track northeast toward the western Great Lakes.  This
will keep warm air advection over the eastern half of the United
States through much of the forecast period.  The surface low
pressure system will move northeast through the Great Lakes region
forcing a cold front east across the area Wednesday night.

Models are all suggesting copious amounts of moisture associated
with the surface low pressure will stream north into the local area
out of the Gulf of Mexico.  This will set-up a potential for some
fairly good rainfall amounts Tuesday night into Wednesday. Soundings
will be nearly saturated during the day Wednesday with precipitable
water values approaching 2 inches.

As the warm air advection takes place ahead of the low pressure
system, expecting temperatures to climb back into the lower 80s
Wednesday and Thursday with lows in the lower to middle 60s.
Dewpoint temperatures will peak out in the middle to upper 60s
Wednesday afternoon and evening.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Thursday THROUGH Tuesday/...
Storms continue to the fire to the west and northwest of the
area. That activity is ahead of an approaching cold front. Have
timed the storms into the TOL area around 19z. The activity
will reach the I-71 corridor around 22z. Have had hit MFD and
CLE pretty hard and will mention IFR vsbys and gusty winds for a
couple of hours. By 00z the storms should be to the PA border.
The line that forms may be broken so it is possible that some
areas could miss the storms. Will give all areas a 2 hour tempo
group. Skies may briefly scatter out behind the cold front
tonight before cold air advection clouds return most areas on
Friday. Gusty SW flow will become W right behind the front with
speeds diminishing overnight.

OUTLOOK...VFR conditions expected Friday and into the weekend
with high pressure building over the area.

&&

.MARINE...
A cold front is expected to move east across the lake tonight
resulting in thunderstorms...a few possibly severe late this
afternoon into this evening. These thunderstorms may generate waves
up to 3 feet and gusty winds for a short time. Over the
weekend...winds are expected to remain below 15 knots and waves 1 to
3 feet at most through Monday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Kubina
NEAR TERM...Kubina
SHORT TERM...Riley
LONG TERM...Lombardy
AVIATION...Kubina
MARINE...Riley

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
315 PM EDT Thu Jul 26 2018

LEZ061-142>149-162>169-OHZ003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-
089-PAZ001>003-271915-
Lake Erie open waters from Ripley to Buffalo NY-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Maumee Bay to Reno Beach OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Reno Beach to The Islands OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from The Islands to Vermilion OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Vermilion to Avon Point OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Avon Point to Willowick OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Willowick to Geneva-on-the Lake OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Geneva-on-the-Lake to Conneaut OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Conneaut OH to Ripley NY-
Lake Erie open waters from Maumee Bay to Reno Beach OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Reno Beach to The Islands OH-
Lake Erie open waters from The Islands to Vermilion OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Vermilion to Avon Point OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Avon Point to Willowick OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Willowick to Geneva-on-the-Lake OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Geneva-on-the-Lake to Conneaut OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Conneaut OH to Ripley NY-Lucas-Wood-
Ottawa-Sandusky-Erie-Lorain-Cuyahoga-Lake-Geauga-Ashtabula Inland-
Hancock-Seneca-Huron-Medina-Summit-Portage-Trumbull-Wyandot-Crawford-
Richland-Ashland-Wayne-Stark-Mahoning-Marion-Morrow-Holmes-Knox-
Ashtabula Lakeshore-Northern Erie-Southern Erie-
315 PM EDT Thu Jul 26 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Lake Erie, north central
Ohio, northeast Ohio, northwest Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

There is a slight chance for severe thunderstorms late this afternoon
and evening as a cold front crosses the area. The main severe weather
threats are damaging straight line winds and large hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
405 PM EDT THU JUL 26 2018

OHZ003-007-262030-
Ottawa-Lucas-
405 PM EDT THU JUL 26 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT OTTAWA AND NORTHEASTERN LUCAS
COUNTIES...

At 405 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 10 miles east of
Oregon, or 17 miles southeast of Monroe, moving east at 65 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Kelleys Island, Put-In-Bay, Catawba Island, Marblehead, Reno Beach,
Bono and Williston.

LAT...LON 4170 8332 4165 8318 4176 8311 4176 8308
      4172 8309 4165 8317 4155 8293 4174 8280
      4170 8275 4158 8280 4164 8273 4163 8267
      4157 8267 4158 8279 4150 8269 4160 8334
TIME...MOT...LOC 2005Z 276DEG 55KT 4169 8322

LaPlante