Special Weather Statement, NWS Charleston, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
558 PM EDT Sat Jun 2 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm and humid air mass will linger across the region through
the rest of this weekend. A cold front is forecast to sweep
across southeast South Carolina and Georgia late Sunday night
into Monday morning. In the wake of the front, a drier air mass
is expected to build across the Southeast U.S. through early
next week. During the mid to late week, conditions are expected
to see gradual increases in deep moisture.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Yet another update to cut back the Severe Thunderstorm Watch in
areas where the storms have moved through.

Radar shows the line of showers and thunderstorms moving through
the easternmost portion of our area, trying to tap into the
remaining instability and the inland moving sea breeze. Some
strong and severe storms can still be expected during the watch
box time period.

We adjusted the POPs to match up with the current radar trends
and the CAMs. Also, adjusted the temperatures as areas where
it's raining and immediately around it are in the 70s. So we
have much cooler hourly temperatures, that generally maintain
into this evening. Then, slowly trend downward into the
overnight. Lows will range from the lower 70s inland to the mid
70s at the beaches, but rain-cooled air could push lows down
even further.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Northwesterly flow aloft will prevail through the period as a deep
upper low develops across New England.

Sunday: In the wake of a upper level trough that will be situated
over the western Atlantic, sinking motion, lower amounts of
tropospheric moisture, and downslope low level flow off the
Appalachians should severely limit rain chances for much of the day.
All of the available guidance has trended drier on Sunday and have
lowered rain chances some but current thinking is that mention of
precipitation might not even be needed on Sunday. As a decent cold
front advances toward the area Sunday night any convection that
develops well northwest of the area with the front Sunday may be
able to move into especially northern areas. Maintained low end
chance of precipitation for most areas Sunday night. Highs on Sunday
should reach into the lower and mid 90s in many area as the sea
breeze will likely be pinned to the coast for much of the day. Mild
lows are expected Sunday night, mainly in the lower to mid 70s.

Monday and Tuesday: Surface high pressure will build into the area
and this will result in lower temperatures and dewpoints compared to
those from Sunday. Limited moisture in the mid and upper level,
modest moisture in the low levels, downslope flow, general sinking
motion in the wake of the western Atlantic trough and limited low
level focus preclude the mention of precipitation in the forecast.
Highs will be near 90 on Monday and mid to upper 80s on Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A broad trough will ripple over the region Wednesday through the
rest of the work week. GFS indicates that a S/W will amplify over
the southern Appalachians on Saturday. At the sfc, weak return flow
should supply the region with gradual increases in moisture and
instability. I will forecast diurnal SCHC PoPs through the late work
week. However, chances are expected to increase on Saturday as a
weak warm front lifts across the forecast area. High temperatures on
Saturday will feature near 90s across SE GA.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
KCHS: Radar indicates thunderstorms near the airport, so we're
maintaining VCTS until 01Z and the TEMPO for MVFR until 00Z.
Though, it's likely both of these times could be moved sooner.
Later this evening, storms will move offshore and dissipate,
allowing conditions to improve and VFR to prevail.

KSAV: Radar indicates the worst of the showers and
thunderstorms have passed by the airport. We amended to improve
the conditions. Based on radar trends and hi-res models we
expect -SHRA with VCTS until ~2330Z. Though, this might be a
little too long and may needed to be amended again, at least to
remove TS sooner. Regardless, conditions will continue to
improve into this evening with VFR prevailing overnight.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Mainly VFR conditions expected through
late next week. A brief period of sub VFR conditions is possible
Sunday afternoon and/or Sunday evening if any showers or
thunderstorms immediately impact the terminals. Also, a brief period
of fog or ground fog is possible during the pre-dawn hours each
morning, especially Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Into this Evening: There is a Severe Thunderstorms Watch for our
waters out 20 nm until 8 PM this evening. Thunderstorms will
produce gusty winds exceeding 34 kt with maybe even some small
hail.

Tonight: Thunderstorms will dissipate across the waters. Expect
SW winds 10-15 kt to prevail with seas 2-4 ft.

Sunday through Wednesday: In advance of a cold front, winds on
Sunday will be from the southwest. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are expected, mainly Sunday night as the cold front
approaches and then moves through. Winds will turn northwest and
perhaps north behind the front Monday morning and then fairly
quickly become light and variable by later Monday and Monday night
and persist into mid week. Seas will mainly be 2 to 3 feet Sunday
and Sunday night then decreasing to mainly 1 to 2 feet through mid
week.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
535 PM EDT SAT JUN 02 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0454 PM     MARINE TSTM WIND 3 WNW FORT SCREVEN      32.03N  80.90W
06/02/2018  M61 MPH          CHATHAM            GA   TIDE GAGE

            FORT PULASKI NOS TIDE GAGE GUSTED TO 40 MPH AT 454 PM,
            PEAK GUST 61 MPH AT 500 PM.

&&

EVENT NUMBER CHS1800399

JRL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston SC
539 PM EDT SAT JUN 2 2018

SCZ047>051-022230-
Coastal Colleton-Inland Jasper-Coastal Jasper-Charleston-Beaufort-
539 PM EDT SAT JUN 2 2018

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF BEAUFORT...
CHARLESTON...COLLETON AND JASPER COUNTIES...

At 539 PM EDT, National Weather Service doppler radar indicated
strong thunderstorms along a line extending from near Gardens Corner
to near Lemon Island, and moving southeast at 30 mph.

  HAZARD...strong winds 45 to 55 mph and excessive cloud to ground
           lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light, unsecured objects. All outdoor activities should
           cease. Move indoors immediately.

Some locations in the path of these storms include...
Hilton Head Island, Beaufort, Port Royal, Edisto Beach, Clarendon,
Seabrook Island, Kiawah Island and Rockville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to flooding of low lying and poor drainage areas. Do not drive your
vehicle through flooded roadways.

Excessive cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 15 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

Report damage directly to the Charleston National Weather Service at
1-888-383-2024 when it is safe to do so. You can also email your
report to nws.charlestonsc@noaa.gov.

&&

LAT...LON 3255 8008 3252 8016 3253 8021 3245 8032
      3241 8034 3244 8041 3230 8041 3224 8059
      3213 8076 3238 8093 3268 8073 3267 8068
      3266 8067 3268 8062 3263 8002
TIME...MOT...LOC 2139Z 295DEG 27KT 3262 8071 3238 8085

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
542 PM EDT SAT JUN 02 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0527 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 S RIDGELAND           32.45N  80.98W
06/02/2018                   JASPER             SC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SCHP REPORTS A TREE DOWN ON BEES CREEK RD NEAR SCARLETT
            IBIS DR.

&&

EVENT NUMBER CHS1800400

JRL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
556 PM EDT SAT JUN 02 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0519 PM     HEAVY RAIN       1 S GUYTON              32.33N  81.39W
06/02/2018  M2.98 INCH       EFFINGHAM          GA   MESONET

            MESONET STATION REPORTED 2.98 INCHES OF RAIN IN LESS
            THAN ONE HOUR.

&&

EVENT NUMBER CHS1800401

JRL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston SC
613 PM EDT SAT JUN 2 2018

SCZ043>045-050-052-022245-
Inland Berkeley-Tidal Berkeley-Charleston-Inland Colleton-Dorchester-
613 PM EDT SAT JUN 2 2018

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF CHARLESTON...
COLLETON...BERKELEY AND DORCHESTER COUNTIES...

At 613 PM EDT, National Weather Service doppler radar indicated
strong thunderstorms along a line extending from 7 miles west of
Givhans Ferry State Park to near Wadmalaw Island, and moving east at
20 mph.

  HAZARD...strong winds 45 to 55 mph, up to penny sized hail and
           excessive cloud to ground lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light, unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to plants,
           trees and crops is possible. Damage to windshields is
           unlikely. All outdoor activities should cease. Move
           indoors immediately.

Some locations in the path of these storms include...
Charleston, North Charleston, Mount Pleasant, Summerville, Goose
Creek, Hanahan, Middleton Place and Downtown Charleston.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Excessive cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 15 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

Report damage directly to the Charleston National Weather Service at
1-888-383-2024 when it is safe to do so. You can also email your
report to nws.charlestonsc@noaa.gov.

&&

LAT...LON 3278 7975 3273 7985 3267 7986 3263 7991
      3264 8020 3313 8063 3316 8024
TIME...MOT...LOC 2213Z 275DEG 17KT 3306 8050 3266 8012