Special Weather Statement, NWS Columbia, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
506 PM EDT Mon Jun 11 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper trough will remain over the eastern states through
Thursday. A back door front will slip slowly south into the
region tonight and stall over the CSRA and southern Midlands
Tuesday. The front will gradually become diffuse Wednesday. Our
region will remain between an upper ridge to our west, and an
upper low to our east, late this week into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
This evening, outflow boundaries and abundant low level
moisture will support areas of thunderstorms. Convection may be
enhanced with an h7 shortwave trough in the area. The chance of
thunderstorms will continue through tonight because of
convergence along a backdoor front pushing into the area from
the north. There is uncertainty with the coverage later tonight
because much of the instability may get released by previous
convection.

Steep low-level lapse rates will support strong downburst winds
in the stronger cells. There may also be hail with considerable
convective instability in the hail growth region. Cloudiness
and mixing along the front favors the higher temperature
guidance for tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Weak upper troughiness will remain along the E CONUS. A moist
atmosphere will remain in place. The back door front is expected
to slip south and set up along the CSRA and S Midlands by
afternoon and stall. This is expected to be the main focusing
mechanism for convection. Moderate instability, steep mid-
level lapse rates and a predominant surface boundary support a
chance of severe weather in the southern FA. LI values around -6
suggest stronger cells may be capable of producing damaging
downburst winds and large hail. Shear values remain weak which
limits the threat of organized thunderstorms. Cooler, drier air
and mostly cloudy skies are expected to reduce convective
coverage to the north of the front.

Little overall change Wednesday. Nearly stationary surface
boundary may gradually become diffuse. A moist atmosphere to
remain over the region. Scattered diurnal thunderstorms
expected.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Little change expected Thursday. Upper trough energy and a
moist atmosphere expected to promote at least scattered diurnal
thunderstorms. From Friday into early next week, the latest GFS
and EC indicate an upper ridge to develop to our west over the
Mississippi and Ohio valleys, with upper trough offshore the
east coast, with upper energy possibly cutting off the Mid
Atlantic coast. Some uncertainties regarding timing of upper
disturbances passing through from the north. Also some
questions on extent of atmospheric moisture, with some
indications of drier air possibly filtering into the region late
in the forecast period. Went with model blend.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Strong heating and convergence into a lee-side trough should
help support thunderstorms this afternoon. Coverage may be
enhanced with an h7 shortwave trough in the area. The HRRR
has not been consistent but has generally displayed the greatest
coverage late this afternoon and in the evening. The chance of
thunderstorms will continue through tonight because of
convergence along the front pushing into the area. There is
uncertainty with the coverage later tonight because much of the
instability may get released by previous convection. Strong
heating ahead of the approaching front should help support
moderate instability this afternoon into the evening. There will
be a possibility of very strong wind and hail with the
thunderstorms. Expect low cloudiness behind the front tonight.
The GFS LAMP and NAM MOS supported an IFR ceiling developing
which may persist through much of Tuesday morning.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...There may be restrictions in
stratus and fog during the early morning hours and also in
mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Columbia SC
939 AM EDT Mon Jun 11 2018

GAZ040-063>065-077-SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041-121345-
Lincoln-McDuffie-Columbia-Richmond-Burke-Lancaster-Chesterfield-
McCormick-Newberry-Fairfield-Kershaw-Edgefield-Saluda-Lexington-
Richland-Lee-Aiken-Sumter-Barnwell-Orangeburg-Calhoun-Clarendon-
Bamberg-
939 AM EDT Mon Jun 11 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Midlands of South Carolina
and the Central Savannah River area of Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Numerous thunderstorms are forecast especially during the 600 pm to
900 pm time frame. Damaging wind and hail will be possible with the
thunderstorms. There may also be very heavy rainfall with possible
localized flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.
Thunderstorms will be possible, especially during the afternoons and
evenings. A few storms could contain strong wind and locally heavy
rain.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required this afternoon or evening.

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>