Severe Thunderstorm Warning 45, NWS Columbia, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
132 PM EDT Mon Jun 11 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper trough will remain over the eastern states through
Thursday. A back door front will slip slowly south into the
region tonight and stall over the CSRA and southern Midlands
Tuesday. The front will gradually become diffuse Wednesday. Our
region will remain between an upper ridge to our west, and an
upper low to our east, late this week into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Strong heating and convergence into a lee-side trough will help
support thunderstorms this afternoon. Coverage may be enhanced
with an h7 shortwave trough in the area. The HRRR has not been
consistent but has generally displayed the greatest coverage
late this afternoon and in the evening. The chance of
thunderstorms will continue through tonight because of
convergence along the front pushing into the area. There is
uncertainty with the coverage later tonight because much of the
instability may get released by previous convection. Strong
heating ahead of the approaching front should help support
moderate instability this afternoon into the evening.
Observation trends support lifted indices around minus 6, CAPE
2000 to 3000 J/kg, and precipitable water 1.7 to 2.0 inches.
Steep low-level lapse rates may support strong downburst winds
in the stronger cells. There may also be hail with considerable
CAPE forecast in the hail growth region. We leaned toward the
higher guidance general rainfall amounts of 0.4 south to 0.8 of
an inch south because of the moisture expected to pool ahead of
the approaching front. There will be areas with higher amounts
and the high precipitable water indicates a possibility of
localized flooding. The temperature guidance was close this
afternoon. Cloudiness and mixing along the front favors the
higher temperature guidance tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Weak upper troughiness will remain along the E CONUS. A moist
atmosphere will remain in place. The back door front is expected
to slip south and set up along the CSRA and S Midlands by
afternoon and stall. This is expected to be the main focusing
mechanism for convection. Cooler air and lingering low cloud
cover is expected to reduce convective coverage north into the
central. So, POPs Tuesday will be weighted higher to the south.
Little overall change Wednesday. Nearly stationary surface
boundary may gradually become diffuse. A moist atmosphere to
remain over the region. Scattered diurnal thunderstorms
expected.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Little change expected Thursday. Upper trough energy and a
moist atmosphere expected to promote at least scattered diurnal
thunderstorms. From Friday into early next week, the latest GFS
and EC indicate an upper ridge to develop to our west over the
Mississippi and Ohio valleys, with upper trough offshore the
east coast, with upper energy possibly cutting off the Mid
Atlantic coast. Some uncertainties regarding timing of upper
disturbances passing through from the north. Also some
questions on extent of atmospheric moisture, with some
indications of drier air possibly filtering into the region late
in the forecast period. Went with model blend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Strong heating and convergence into a lee-side trough should
help support thunderstorms this afternoon. Coverage may be
enhanced with an h7 shortwave trough in the area. The HRRR
has not been consistent but has generally displayed the greatest
coverage late this afternoon and in the evening. The chance of
thunderstorms will continue through tonight because of
convergence along the front pushing into the area. There is
uncertainty with the coverage later tonight because much of the
instability may get released by previous convection. Strong
heating ahead of the approaching front should help support
moderate instability this afternoon into the evening. There will
be a possibility of very strong wind and hail with the
thunderstorms. Expect low cloudiness behind the front tonight.
The GFS LAMP and NAM MOS supported an IFR ceiling developing
which may persist through much of Tuesday morning.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...There may be restrictions in
stratus and fog during the early morning hours and also in
mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Columbia SC
939 AM EDT Mon Jun 11 2018

GAZ040-063>065-077-SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041-121345-
Lincoln-McDuffie-Columbia-Richmond-Burke-Lancaster-Chesterfield-
McCormick-Newberry-Fairfield-Kershaw-Edgefield-Saluda-Lexington-
Richland-Lee-Aiken-Sumter-Barnwell-Orangeburg-Calhoun-Clarendon-
Bamberg-
939 AM EDT Mon Jun 11 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Midlands of South Carolina
and the Central Savannah River area of Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Numerous thunderstorms are forecast especially during the 600 pm to
900 pm time frame. Damaging wind and hail will be possible with the
thunderstorms. There may also be very heavy rainfall with possible
localized flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.
Thunderstorms will be possible, especially during the afternoons and
evenings. A few storms could contain strong wind and locally heavy
rain.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required this afternoon or evening.

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