Special Weather Statement, NWS Billings, MT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
244 PM MDT Fri Aug 3 2018

.SHORT TERM...valid for Sat and Sun...

A similar setup to last nights for thunderstorms this evening,
with just a bit more moisture and organization. Upper trof swings
through the area tonight triggering convection from modest
instability but decent shear profiles. Precipitable water values a
bit higher tonight and combined with more organized forcing should
bring better coverage of storms and more precipitation with storms
that do form. Already have report of small hail with storms over
Park county, due to lower freezing level with cooler air aloft
accompanying the trof. CAM models suggest some organization of the
cold pool that could push storms and strong wind gusts all the way
to the Dakotas by the early morning hours. By late evening should
start seeing clearing over western zones, translating through
central areas in the early morning hours. Eastern zones may
still isolated convection past sunrise tomorrow.

Behind the trof tomorrow looks about 5 degrees cooler than today.
Drier air and general downslope gradient look to keep the area
mainly dry with just an isolated aft/eve thunderstorm over the
mountains/foothills.

Another trof drops in from the northwest on Sunday bringing a
chance for showers and thunderstorms back to the area. Highs
Sunday may stay in the 70s for most locations.

Smoke conditions look to greatly improve over the weekend as flow
turns more west-northwest. However there are still a several
fires in Washington, Idaho, and British Columbia so will not
completely clear it out. Chambers

.LONG TERM...valid for Mon...Tue...Wed...Thu...Fri...

Kept the extended forecast mostly dry and warm. Ensembles and
deterministic models were in decent agreement through the period.
Noticed tropical activity was projected to decrease in the E.
Pacific which would boost model confidence.

Had isolated thunderstorms in SE MT and Sheridan County Monday
morning as models lingered some vorticity and moisture in this
area. Otherwise the only PoPs were in the high elevations of the
Beartooths and NE Bighorns through Wednesday evening when high-
level moisture and some energy will be over these areas. A weak NW
flow will be over the area Monday through Tuesday, before a strong
ridge amplifies over the region through Friday. The ridge will
bring dry conditions with a warming trend. By Thursday and Friday,
the area will have highs in the mid to upper 90s. Went above model
blends for temperatures in these periods due to the strength of
the ridge and 700 mb temperatures approaching +16 degrees C. Winds
looked light through the period which will keep fire weather
concerns at bay. Arthur

&&

.AVIATION...

Thunderstorms will develop over the mountains and spread E through
KBIL, KSHR and KMLS by mid afternoon. The threats from storms
will be strong erratic wind gusts to around 50 kt, hail and
localized heavy downpours. MVFR conditions are possible in
thunderstorms with heavy rain. The storms will affect the area
through 06Z, then become isolated overnight. A few storms may
linger in the SE corner of MT Saturday morning. Areas of mountain
obscuration this afternoon and evening will decrease overnight.
Expect localized mountain obscuration Sat. afternoon. Arthur

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu     Fri
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 056/085 056/081 055/085 058/090 060/092 061/095 062/096
    41/U    23/T    21/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U
LVM 046/080 047/077 047/084 048/088 051/090 052/094 053/095
    21/U    34/T    20/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U
HDN 056/085 055/084 054/087 057/092 058/094 060/096 060/098
    51/U    23/T    21/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U
MLS 058/085 057/084 058/087 059/092 062/094 062/096 063/097
    31/U    12/T    21/U    10/U    00/U    00/U    00/U
4BQ 059/086 057/086 057/087 057/092 059/093 061/096 062/097
    52/T    23/T    22/T    10/U    00/U    00/U    00/U
BHK 058/086 055/084 055/085 056/089 058/091 059/093 059/092
    32/T    12/T    21/U    10/U    01/U    00/U    00/U
SHR 054/083 052/081 050/084 052/089 054/091 055/094 056/095
    42/T    23/T    31/B    10/U    10/U    00/U    00/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...Red Flag Warning in effect until midnight MDT tonight FOR
      ZONE 117.
WY...None.

&&

weather.gov/billings

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Billings MT
325 AM MDT Fri Aug 3 2018

MTZ028>042-056>058-063>068-WYZ098-099-040600-
Southern Wheatland-Musselshell-Treasure-Northern Rosebud-Custer-
Fallon-Northern Stillwater-Yellowstone-Powder River-Carter-
Southern Big Horn-Eastern Carbon-Northern Park-
Northern Sweet Grass-Golden Valley-Red Lodge Foothills-
Northern Big Horn-Southern Rosebud-Judith Gap-Paradise Valley-
Livingston Area-Beartooth Foothills-Absaroka/Beartooth Mountains-
Crazy Mountains-Northeast Bighorn Mountains-Sheridan Foothills-
325 AM MDT Fri Aug 3 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Montana...south central Montana...southeast Montana and north
central Wyoming.

* WHAT...the potential for strong and erratic wind gusts from
  showers and thunderstorms.

* WHERE...South Central Montana, along with Sheridan county
  Wyoming.

* WHEN...This afternoon and evening.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Storms are expected in the afternoon and
  evening, which could impact outdoor events. Brief downpours are
  possible.

* ADDITIONAL HAZARD CONCERNS...Erratic wind gusts could pose a
  problem for existing fires, or any new fires caused by the
  lightning activity.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Be sure to stay tuned for future updates as locations, timing, and
impacts could change. Begin preparations to mitigate any impacts
that could result from strong winds and local downpours.

&&

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