Alert archive / Montana / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2018

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 167, NWS Billings, MT

August 3, 2018Big Horn County, Carbon County, Yellowstone County, Montana

NWS Billings, MT issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Aug 3, 2018, 4:51 PM MDT for Big Horn County, Carbon County, Yellowstone County, Montana. It was in force for 39 min. 1 report came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued
Aug 3, 2018, 4:51 PM MDT (22:51 UTC)
Expired
Aug 3, 2018, 5:30 PM MDT
In force
39 min
Issued by
NWS Billings, MT
Area
Storm-based polygon
Hail
0.75 in
Wind
70.0 mph

Counties Big Horn County, MT, Carbon County, MT, Yellowstone County, MT

The radar

The Billings radar (KBLX), 76 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:52 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

TimeReportWhereRemark
Aug 3, 5:23 PM MDTTSTM WND GST 605 Ene Fort Smith, MTESTIMATED 60 MPH WINDS. BRANCHES AND SMALL LIMBS DOWN.

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

Did it verify

Verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow matched one storm report to this severe thunderstorm warning; the first came 32 minutes after it went out.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Riverton, WY (KRIW), launched 12:00Z, 10.9 hours before the alert went out and 292 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Riverton, WY at 12:00Z on 2018-08-03Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 25 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Riverton, WY at 12:00Z on 2018-08-03The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 73 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
25 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-283 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
2423 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
21 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
73 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
96 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

943 
WUUS55 KBYZ 032251
SVRBYZ
MTC003-009-111-032330-
/O.NEW.KBYZ.SV.W.0167.180803T2251Z-180803T2330Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Billings MT
451 PM MDT FRI AUG 3 2018

The National Weather Service in Billings has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  Western Big Horn County in south central Montana...
  Southeastern Carbon County in south central Montana...
  South central Yellowstone County in south central Montana...

* Until 530 PM MDT.

* At 451 PM MDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
  extending from 17 miles southeast of Ballantine to 14 miles south
  of Pryor, moving east at 55 mph.

  HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated.

  IMPACT...Expect considerable tree damage. Damage is likely to 
           mobile homes, roofs, and outbuildings.

* Locations impacted include...
  Hardin, Fort Smith, Crow Agency, Pryor, St. Xavier, Bighorn Lake
  and Crow Indian Reservation.

This warning does not include the city of Billings.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with these storms, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4514 10880 4576 10809 4596 10737 4595 10718
      4591 10717 4591 10705 4587 10705 4513 10761
TIME...MOT...LOC 2251Z 249DEG 47KT 4573 10799 4523 10862 

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...70MPH
 
$$

Arthur
1 follow-up statement
852 
WWUS55 KBYZ 032311
SVSBYZ

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Billings MT
511 PM MDT FRI AUG 3 2018

MTC009-032319-
/O.CAN.KBYZ.SV.W.0167.000000T0000Z-180803T2330Z/
Carbon MT-
511 PM MDT FRI AUG 3 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN CARBON COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

The storms which prompted the warning have moved out of the warned 
area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

LAT...LON 4522 10843 4576 10809 4596 10737 4595 10718
      4591 10717 4591 10705 4587 10705 4522 10755
TIME...MOT...LOC 2309Z 249DEG 47KT 4581 10769 4531 10833 

$$

MTC003-111-032330-
/O.CON.KBYZ.SV.W.0167.000000T0000Z-180803T2330Z/
Big Horn MT-Yellowstone MT-
511 PM MDT FRI AUG 3 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 530 PM MDT
FOR CENTRAL BIG HORN AND SOUTH CENTRAL YELLOWSTONE COUNTIES...

At 509 PM MDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 6 miles northwest of Hardin to 12 miles southeast of
Pryor, moving east at 50 mph.

HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect considerable tree damage. Damage is likely to mobile 
         homes, roofs, and outbuildings.

Locations impacted include...
Hardin, Crow Agency, Fort Smith, St. Xavier, Bighorn Lake and Crow
Indian Reservation.

This warning does not include the City of Billings.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with these storms, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4522 10843 4576 10809 4596 10737 4595 10718
      4591 10717 4591 10705 4587 10705 4522 10755
TIME...MOT...LOC 2309Z 249DEG 47KT 4581 10769 4531 10833 

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...70MPH
 
$$

Arthur

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Billings, MT wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Aug 3, 2:44 PM MDT, 2 hours 7 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Aug 3, 2:44 PM MDT, 2 hours 7 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
244 PM MDT Fri Aug 3 2018

.SHORT TERM...valid for Sat and Sun...

A similar setup to last nights for thunderstorms this evening,
with just a bit more moisture and organization. Upper trof swings
through the area tonight triggering convection from modest
instability but decent shear profiles. Precipitable water values a
bit higher tonight and combined with more organized forcing should
bring better coverage of storms and more precipitation with storms
that do form. Already have report of small hail with storms over
Park county, due to lower freezing level with cooler air aloft
accompanying the trof. CAM models suggest some organization of the
cold pool that could push storms and strong wind gusts all the way
to the Dakotas by the early morning hours. By late evening should
start seeing clearing over western zones, translating through
central areas in the early morning hours. Eastern zones may
still isolated convection past sunrise tomorrow.

Behind the trof tomorrow looks about 5 degrees cooler than today.
Drier air and general downslope gradient look to keep the area
mainly dry with just an isolated aft/eve thunderstorm over the
mountains/foothills.

Another trof drops in from the northwest on Sunday bringing a
chance for showers and thunderstorms back to the area. Highs
Sunday may stay in the 70s for most locations.

Smoke conditions look to greatly improve over the weekend as flow
turns more west-northwest. However there are still a several
fires in Washington, Idaho, and British Columbia so will not
completely clear it out. Chambers

.LONG TERM...valid for Mon...Tue...Wed...Thu...Fri...

Kept the extended forecast mostly dry and warm. Ensembles and
deterministic models were in decent agreement through the period.
Noticed tropical activity was projected to decrease in the E.
Pacific which would boost model confidence.

Had isolated thunderstorms in SE MT and Sheridan County Monday
morning as models lingered some vorticity and moisture in this
area. Otherwise the only PoPs were in the high elevations of the
Beartooths and NE Bighorns through Wednesday evening when high-
level moisture and some energy will be over these areas. A weak NW
flow will be over the area Monday through Tuesday, before a strong
ridge amplifies over the region through Friday. The ridge will
bring dry conditions with a warming trend. By Thursday and Friday,
the area will have highs in the mid to upper 90s. Went above model
blends for temperatures in these periods due to the strength of
the ridge and 700 mb temperatures approaching +16 degrees C. Winds
looked light through the period which will keep fire weather
concerns at bay. Arthur

&&

.AVIATION...

Thunderstorms will develop over the mountains and spread E through
KBIL, KSHR and KMLS by mid afternoon. The threats from storms
will be strong erratic wind gusts to around 50 kt, hail and
localized heavy downpours. MVFR conditions are possible in
thunderstorms with heavy rain. The storms will affect the area
through 06Z, then become isolated overnight. A few storms may
linger in the SE corner of MT Saturday morning. Areas of mountain
obscuration this afternoon and evening will decrease overnight.
Expect localized mountain obscuration Sat. afternoon. Arthur

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu     Fri
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 056/085 056/081 055/085 058/090 060/092 061/095 062/096
    41/U    23/T    21/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U
LVM 046/080 047/077 047/084 048/088 051/090 052/094 053/095
    21/U    34/T    20/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U
HDN 056/085 055/084 054/087 057/092 058/094 060/096 060/098
    51/U    23/T    21/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U
MLS 058/085 057/084 058/087 059/092 062/094 062/096 063/097
    31/U    12/T    21/U    10/U    00/U    00/U    00/U
4BQ 059/086 057/086 057/087 057/092 059/093 061/096 062/097
    52/T    23/T    22/T    10/U    00/U    00/U    00/U
BHK 058/086 055/084 055/085 056/089 058/091 059/093 059/092
    32/T    12/T    21/U    10/U    01/U    00/U    00/U
SHR 054/083 052/081 050/084 052/089 054/091 055/094 056/095
    42/T    23/T    31/B    10/U    10/U    00/U    00/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...Red Flag Warning in effect until midnight MDT tonight FOR
      ZONE 117.
WY...None.

&&

weather.gov/billings
Hazardous weather outlook, Aug 3, 3:25 AM MDT, 13 hours 26 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Billings MT
325 AM MDT Fri Aug 3 2018

MTZ028>042-056>058-063>068-WYZ098-099-040600-
Southern Wheatland-Musselshell-Treasure-Northern Rosebud-Custer-
Fallon-Northern Stillwater-Yellowstone-Powder River-Carter-
Southern Big Horn-Eastern Carbon-Northern Park-
Northern Sweet Grass-Golden Valley-Red Lodge Foothills-
Northern Big Horn-Southern Rosebud-Judith Gap-Paradise Valley-
Livingston Area-Beartooth Foothills-Absaroka/Beartooth Mountains-
Crazy Mountains-Northeast Bighorn Mountains-Sheridan Foothills-
325 AM MDT Fri Aug 3 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Montana...south central Montana...southeast Montana and north
central Wyoming.

* WHAT...the potential for strong and erratic wind gusts from
  showers and thunderstorms.

* WHERE...South Central Montana, along with Sheridan county
  Wyoming.

* WHEN...This afternoon and evening.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Storms are expected in the afternoon and
  evening, which could impact outdoor events. Brief downpours are
  possible.

* ADDITIONAL HAZARD CONCERNS...Erratic wind gusts could pose a
  problem for existing fires, or any new fires caused by the
  lightning activity.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Be sure to stay tuned for future updates as locations, timing, and
impacts could change. Begin preparations to mitigate any impacts
that could result from strong winds and local downpours.

&&

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Aug 3, 4:13 PM MDT, 38 minutes before
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Special weather statement, Aug 3, 4:18 PM MDT, 33 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Billings MT
418 PM MDT FRI AUG 3 2018

MTZ034-035-038-039-056-032300-
Yellowstone MT-Red Lodge Foothills MT-Eastern Carbon MT-
Southern Big Horn MT-Northern Stillwater MT-
418 PM MDT FRI AUG 3 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

At 417 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Laurel to 7 miles southwest of Bridger.
Movement was northeast at 40 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph are possible with these
storms.

Locations impacted include...
Billings, Laurel, Bridger, Joliet, Fromberg, Pryor, Billings West
End, Edgar, Rockvale and Silesia.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 4571 10832 4536 10842 4513 10915 4584 10879
TIME...MOT...LOC 2217Z 241DEG 33KT 4569 10883 4524 10905

Arthur
Local storm report, Aug 3, 4:28 PM MDT, 23 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
428 PM MDT FRI AUG 03 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0207 PM     HAIL             5 ESE LIVINGSTON        45.64N 110.43W
08/03/2018  M0.50 INCH       PARK               MT   PUBLIC

&&

WALSH
Special weather statement, Aug 3, 4:31 PM MDT, 20 minutes before
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Special weather statement, Aug 3, 4:34 PM MDT, 17 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Billings MT
434 PM MDT FRI AUG 3 2018

MTZ038-WYZ098-099-032315-
Southern Big Horn MT-Sheridan Foothills WY-
Northeast Big Horn Mountains WY-
434 PM MDT FRI AUG 3 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

At 434 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles northeast of Granite Pass, or 22 miles west of Sheridan, moving
northeast at 50 mph.

Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Sheridan, Ranchester, Dayton, Granite Pass, Big Horn, Banner, Burgess
Junction and Story.

LAT...LON 4460 10738 4460 10742 4461 10743 4461 10747
      4464 10749 4464 10751 4478 10759 4509 10692
      4456 10655 4456 10737
TIME...MOT...LOC 2234Z 242DEG 43KT 4476 10741

Arthur
Local storm report, Aug 3, 4:48 PM MDT, 3 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
448 PM MDT FRI AUG 03 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0404 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 NW BURGESS JUNCTION   44.79N 107.54W
08/03/2018  M56.00 MPH       SHERIDAN           WY   MESONET

&&

WALSH

The office that day

Everything else NWS Billings, MT issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Aug 2, 6:52 PM MDTSpecial Weather StatementBYZGolden Valley38 min
Aug 2, 7:26 PM MDTSpecial Weather StatementBYZGolden Valley34 min
Aug 2, 7:51 PM MDTSpecial Weather StatementBYZYellowstone39 min
Aug 2, 7:59 PM MDTSpecial Weather StatementBYZTreasure46 min
Aug 2, 10:05 PM MDTSpecial Weather StatementBYZRosebud, Treasure55 min
Aug 2, 11:02 PM MDTSpecial Weather StatementBYZCuster58 min
Aug 3, 12:08 AM MDTSpecial Weather StatementBYZCuster52 min
Aug 3, 1:34 PM MDTSpecial Weather StatementBYZPark41 min
Aug 3, 2:14 PM MDTSpecial Weather StatementBYZPark, Sweet Grass46 min
Aug 3, 2:58 PM MDTSpecial Weather StatementBYZStillwater47 min
Aug 3, 2:59 PM MDTSpecial Weather StatementBYZPark46 min
Aug 3, 3:44 PM MDTSpecial Weather StatementBYZPark46 min
Aug 3, 3:52 PM MDTSpecial Weather StatementBYZStillwater23 min
Aug 3, 4:13 PM MDTSpecial Weather StatementBYZYellowstone47 min
Aug 3, 4:18 PM MDTSpecial Weather StatementBYZCarbon42 min
Aug 3, 4:31 PM MDTSpecial Weather StatementBYZStillwater29 min
Aug 3, 5:27 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBYZBig Horn, Custer, Powder River, Rosebud, Treasure63 min
Aug 3, 5:45 PM MDTSpecial Weather StatementBYZYellowstone30 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Montana, 2018Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2018

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.