Flash Flood Warning 8, NWS Billings, MT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
337 PM MDT Fri Jul 27 2018

.SHORT TERM...valid for Sat and Sun...

The northwesterly upper flow from the previous few days continues
this afternoon. Disturbances moving within this flow should
continue to cause scattered showers and thunderstorms this evening
through Sunday night. In addition...for this afternoon and
evening, the strong mid-level northwesterly flow aloft is
yielding appreciable effective bulk shear over the area.
Instability combined with the shear is sufficient for a few severe
thunderstorms to occur over far southeastern Montana and north
central Wyoming. The thunderstorms in this area could produce
large hail and damaging wind gusts.

Very weak shortwave ridging looks to move over northeastern
Montana later tonight, which should help to lessen shower and
thunderstorm coverage, especially for northeastern Montana
extending to northern Rosebud, Custer, and Fallon Counties. The
weak ridging should exit the region by Saturday afternoon,
allowing showers and thunderstorms to occur over much of central
and eastern Montana for Saturday afternoon and evening.

Temperatures will continue to be a few degrees below normal this
weekend thanks to cooler air over south central Canada and the
northern Plains flowing westward to Montana/northern Wyoming.
High temperatures will generally be in the upper 70s to lower 80s
on both Saturday and Sunday. RMS/borsum

.LONG TERM...valid for Mon...Tue...Wed...Thu...Fri...

The ridge expected to move into the area Monday into Tuesday is
surging a bit weaker than previously expected and looks to have a
bunch of monsoonal moisture trapped in it. This dirty ridge is not
looking as warm or dry as before so have lowered temperatures but
not introduced precip in these periods yet. The breakdown of this
ridge looks more dramatic on Wednesday/Wednesday night which may
bring a Pacific Front through the region on Thursday. Models have
been showing a slowing trend on the breakdown of the ridge so how
warm Wednesday is and how strong frontal push is are two
uncertainties to yet play out. Friday and beyond looks to be
zonal flow with seasonal temperatures and mainly dry conditions.
borsum

&&

.AVIATION...

Bands of showers and thunderstorms will move across the region
this afternoon favoring higher terrain and mainly areas north of a
Billings to Harlowtown line. Mostly VFR conditions will prevail
with brief ceiling reductions in stronger cell. Activity
dissipates late tonight with additional convection expected
Saturday. borsum

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu     Fri
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 056/080 057/081 056/088 059/091 061/092 062/090 059/087
    43/T    32/T    10/U    00/B    11/B    11/U    00/U
LVM 048/078 048/079 048/085 051/087 053/088 054/085 050/081
    44/T    32/T    10/U    01/B    11/B    11/U    11/U
HDN 056/082 056/082 053/088 057/091 058/093 060/090 059/089
    43/T    33/T    10/U    00/U    11/B    10/U    00/U
MLS 056/081 057/081 056/087 059/091 058/089 062/089 061/088
    42/T    22/T    10/U    00/U    11/U    11/B    10/U
4BQ 055/080 055/080 055/085 058/089 059/090 062/091 061/090
    43/T    34/T    21/U    00/U    11/B    11/U    10/U
BHK 052/078 053/077 053/085 057/087 054/084 057/088 059/086
    31/B    34/T    21/U    00/U    11/U    11/B    11/U
SHR 052/079 051/078 049/084 052/087 055/089 057/089 056/087
    45/T    33/T    20/U    00/B    11/B    11/U    10/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

weather.gov/billings

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Billings MT
1042 AM MDT Fri Jul 27 2018

MTZ036>038-058-WYZ098-099-281645-
Powder River-Carter-Southern Big Horn-Southern Rosebud-
Northeast Bighorn Mountains-Sheridan Foothills-
1042 AM MDT Fri Jul 27 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central
Montana...southeast Montana and north central Wyoming.

* WHAT...Severe Thunderstorms.

* WHERE...North central Wyoming and portions of southeastern
  Montana.

* WHEN...This afternoon and evening.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Storm activity is expected during the late
  afternoon hours which could impact outdoor events.

* ADDITIONAL HAZARD CONCERNS...Storms will be fast moving and
  capable of producing strong winds, hail, and frequent lightning.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Hazardous Weather Outlook is issued when hazardous weather could
impact the region within the next week. Be sure to stay tuned for
future updates as locations, timing, and impacts could change.
Begin preparations to mitigate any impacts that could result from
the hazardous weather.

&&

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
433 PM MDT FRI JUL 27 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0427 PM     HAIL             4 WSW BILLINGS          45.76N 108.61W
07/27/2018  M1.25 INCH       YELLOWSTONE        MT   PUBLIC

0429 PM     HAIL             4 W BILLINGS            45.78N 108.59W
07/27/2018  M1.00 INCH       YELLOWSTONE        MT   PUBLIC

0431 PM     HAIL             4 SW BILLINGS           45.75N 108.57W
07/27/2018  M1.50 INCH       YELLOWSTONE        MT   CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

RMS