Winter Weather Advisory 49, NWS Buffalo, NY

130 
WWUS41 KBUF 062126
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
426 PM EST Tue Feb 6 2018

NYZ006>008-070530-
/O.EXT.KBUF.WW.Y.0048.000000T0000Z-180207T0300Z/
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.W.0002.180207T0900Z-180208T0900Z/
Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-
Including the cities of Oswego, Watertown, and Lowville
426 PM EST Tue Feb 6 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING...
...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM WEDNESDAY TO
4 AM EST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Snow occurring. Heavy snow expected. An additional 2 to 
  4 inches expected through this evening. Then another 6 to 12 
  inches expected early Wednesday morning through late Wednesday 
  night. Travel will be very difficult to impossible, including 
  during the evening commute on Wednesday.

* WHERE...The Eastern Lake Ontario Region.

* WHEN...For the Winter Storm Warning, from 4 AM Wednesday to 4 
  AM EST Thursday. For the Winter Weather Advisory, until 10 PM 
  EST this evening.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Be prepared for significant reductions in 
  visibility at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Widespread accumulating snow will create dangerous travel
conditions.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

Periods of snow will result in snow covered roads and limited
visibilities. Slow down and use caution while driving.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ003>005-012>014-020-021-070530-
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.W.0002.180207T0900Z-180208T0900Z/
Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Wyoming-Livingston-Ontario-
Cattaraugus-Allegany-
Including the cities of Rochester, Newark, Fair Haven, Warsaw, 
Geneseo, Canandaigua, Olean, and Wellsville
426 PM EST Tue Feb 6 2018

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM WEDNESDAY TO
4 AM EST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Plan on difficult travel 
  conditions, including during the morning commute on Wednesday. 
  Total snow accumulations of 6 to 10 inches are expected.

* WHERE...Monroe, Wayne, Northern Cayuga, Wyoming, Livingston, 
  Ontario, Cattaraugus, and Allegany counties.

* WHEN...From 4 AM Wednesday to 4 AM EST Thursday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Be prepared for significant reductions in 
  visibility at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Widespread accumulating snow will create dangerous travel
conditions.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ001-002-010-011-019-085-070530-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0049.180207T0900Z-180208T0900Z/
Niagara-Orleans-Northern Erie-Genesee-Chautauqua-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Buffalo, Batavia, 
Jamestown, Orchard Park, and Springville
426 PM EST Tue Feb 6 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM WEDNESDAY
TO 4 AM EST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Plan on difficult travel conditions, 
  including during the morning commute on Wednesday. Total snow 
  accumulations of 4 to 8 inches are expected.

* WHERE...Niagara, Orleans, Erie, Genesee, and Chautauqua 
  counties.

* WHEN...From 4 AM Wednesday to 4 AM EST Thursday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Be prepared for reduced visibilities at 
  times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Periods of snow will result in snow covered roads and limited
visibilities. Slow down and use caution while driving.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

285 
WWUS41 KBUF 070255
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
955 PM EST Tue Feb 6 2018

NYZ006>008-071100-
/O.CAN.KBUF.WW.Y.0048.000000T0000Z-180207T0300Z/
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.W.0002.180207T0900Z-180208T0900Z/
Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-
Including the cities of Oswego, Watertown, and Lowville
955 PM EST Tue Feb 6 2018

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM WEDNESDAY TO
4 AM EST THURSDAY...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Plan on difficult travel 
  conditions. Total snow accumulations of 6 to 10 inches are 
  expected.

* WHERE...The Eastern Lake Ontario Region.

* WHEN...From 4 AM Wednesday to 4 AM EST Thursday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Be prepared for significant reductions in 
  visibility at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Widespread accumulating snow will create dangerous travel
conditions.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ003>005-012>014-020-021-071100-
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.W.0002.180207T0900Z-180208T0900Z/
Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Wyoming-Livingston-Ontario-
Cattaraugus-Allegany-
Including the cities of Rochester, Newark, Fair Haven, Warsaw, 
Geneseo, Canandaigua, Olean, and Wellsville
955 PM EST Tue Feb 6 2018

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM WEDNESDAY TO
4 AM EST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Plan on difficult travel 
  conditions. Total snow accumulations of 6 to 10 inches are 
  expected.

* WHERE...Monroe, Wayne, Northern Cayuga, Wyoming, Livingston, 
  Ontario, Cattaraugus, and Allegany counties.

* WHEN...From 4 AM Wednesday to 4 AM EST Thursday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Be prepared for significant reductions in 
  visibility at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Widespread accumulating snow will create dangerous travel
conditions.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ001-002-010-011-019-085-071100-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0049.180207T0900Z-180208T0900Z/
Niagara-Orleans-Northern Erie-Genesee-Chautauqua-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Buffalo, Batavia, 
Jamestown, Orchard Park, and Springville
955 PM EST Tue Feb 6 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM WEDNESDAY
TO 4 AM EST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Plan on difficult travel conditions, 
  including during the morning commute on Wednesday. Total snow 
  accumulations of 4 to 8 inches are expected.

* WHERE...Niagara, Orleans, Erie, Genesee, and Chautauqua 
  counties.

* WHEN...From 4 AM Wednesday to 4 AM EST Thursday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Be prepared for reduced visibilities at 
  times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Periods of snow will result in snow covered roads and limited
visibilities. Slow down and use caution while driving.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

842 
WWUS41 KBUF 070849
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
349 AM EST Wed Feb 7 2018

NYZ003>008-012>014-020-021-071700-
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.W.0002.180207T0900Z-180208T0900Z/
Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-Wyoming-
Livingston-Ontario-Cattaraugus-Allegany-
Including the cities of Rochester, Newark, Fair Haven, Oswego, 
Watertown, Lowville, Warsaw, Geneseo, Canandaigua, Olean, 
and Wellsville
349 AM EST Wed Feb 7 2018

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Plan on difficult travel conditions.
  Total snow accumulations of 6 to 10 inches are expected.

* WHERE...Monroe, Wayne, Northern Cayuga, Oswego, Jefferson, 
  Lewis, Wyoming, Livingston, Ontario, Cattaraugus, and Allegany 
  counties.

* WHEN...Until 4 AM EST Thursday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The period of heaviest snowfall will be
  from this morning through early to mid afternoon. Snowfall rates
  are expected to peak around 1 inch per hour for a few hours
  during this period, which will result in very difficult travel
  and poor visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Widespread accumulating snow will create dangerous travel
conditions.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ001-002-010-011-019-085-071700-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0049.180207T0900Z-180208T0900Z/
Niagara-Orleans-Northern Erie-Genesee-Chautauqua-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Buffalo, Batavia, 
Jamestown, Orchard Park, and Springville
349 AM EST Wed Feb 7 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Plan on difficult travel conditions, 
  including during the morning commute. Total snow accumulations 
  of 4 to 8 inches are expected.

* WHERE...Niagara, Orleans, Erie, Genesee, and Chautauqua 
  counties.

* WHEN...Until 4 AM EST Thursday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The period of heaviest snowfall will be
  between 7 AM and noon. Snowfall rates are expected to peak near
  1 inch per hour for a few hours during this period, which will
  result in very difficult travel and poor visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Periods of snow will result in snow covered roads and limited
visibilities. Slow down and use caution while driving.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

Church

161 
WWUS41 KBUF 071633
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1133 AM EST Wed Feb 7 2018

NYZ003>008-012>014-020-021-080045-
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-180208T0900Z/
Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-Wyoming-
Livingston-Ontario-Cattaraugus-Allegany-
Including the cities of Rochester, Newark, Fair Haven, Oswego, 
Watertown, Lowville, Warsaw, Geneseo, Canandaigua, Olean, 
and Wellsville
1133 AM EST Wed Feb 7 2018

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Plan on difficult travel 
  conditions. Total snow accumulations of 6 to 10 inches are 
  expected.

* WHERE...Monroe, Wayne, Northern Cayuga, Oswego, Jefferson, 
  Lewis, Wyoming, Livingston, Ontario, Cattaraugus, and Allegany 
  counties.

* WHEN...Until 4 AM EST Thursday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The period of heaviest snowfall will be through
  early to mid afternoon. Snowfall rates are expected to peak 
  around 1 inch per hour for a few hours during this period, which
  will result in very difficult travel and poor visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Widespread accumulating snow will create dangerous travel
conditions.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ001-002-010-011-019-085-080045-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0049.000000T0000Z-180208T0900Z/
Niagara-Orleans-Northern Erie-Genesee-Chautauqua-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Buffalo, Batavia, 
Jamestown, Orchard Park, and Springville
1133 AM EST Wed Feb 7 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Plan on difficult travel conditions, 
  including during the morning commute. Total snow accumulations 
  of 4 to 8 inches are expected.

* WHERE...Niagara, Orleans, Erie, Genesee, and Chautauqua 
  counties.

* WHEN...Until 4 AM EST Thursday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The period of heaviest snowfall will be
  through noon. Snowfall rates are expected to peak near 1 inch 
  per hour for a few hours during this period, which will result 
  in very difficult travel and poor visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Periods of snow will result in snow covered roads and limited
visibilities. Slow down and use caution while driving.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

345 
WWUS41 KBUF 071953
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
253 PM EST Wed Feb 7 2018

NYZ001-002-010-011-019-085-072100-
/O.CAN.KBUF.WW.Y.0049.000000T0000Z-180208T0900Z/
Niagara-Orleans-Northern Erie-Genesee-Chautauqua-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Buffalo, Batavia, 
Jamestown, Orchard Park, and Springville
253 PM EST Wed Feb 7 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

Moderate to heavy snow has ended. Light snow will continue through
the afternoon. An additional dusting to a half inch is possible. 

$$

NYZ006>008-080400-
/O.NEW.KBUF.LE.W.0005.180208T1500Z-180209T1800Z/
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-180208T0900Z/
Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-
Including the cities of Oswego, Watertown, and Lowville
253 PM EST Wed Feb 7 2018

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST
THURSDAY...
...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THURSDAY TO 1 PM
EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow occurring. Plan on difficult travel
  conditions, including during the evening commute. Additional
  snow accumulations of 3 to 5 inches are expected. Total snow
  accumulations of 6 to 10 inches through tonight. Heavy lake
  effect snow expected Thursday into Friday. Total snow
  accumulations of 8 to 15 inches are expected in the 
  most persistent lake snows.

* WHERE...The Eastern Lake Ontario Region.

* WHEN...For the Winter Storm Warning, until 4 AM EST Thursday. 
  For the Lake Effect Snow Warning, from 10 AM Thursday to 1 PM 
  EST Friday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Be prepared for significant reductions in
  visibility at times. Widespread snow will taper off tonight and
  will transition to lake effect snow showers by Thursday morning.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Widespread accumulating snow will create dangerous travel
conditions.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

Heavy snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If traveling, be
prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities.

&&

Experimental content below...do not use operationally
Please see below links for more information on this experiment
http://www.weather.gov/buf/polygon_pdd
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/notification/
pns15lake_effect_snowaaa.htm
To view the experimental polygons please see:
http://www.weather.gov/buf/lespolygon
COORD...4372 7544 4388 7570 4383 7626 4361 7623 
        4345 7659 4346 7561 
TIME Y18M02D09T0300Z-Y18M02D09T1200Z

$$

NYZ012>014-020-021-080400-
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-180208T0900Z/
Wyoming-Livingston-Ontario-Cattaraugus-Allegany-
Including the cities of Warsaw, Geneseo, Canandaigua, Olean, 
and Wellsville
253 PM EST Wed Feb 7 2018

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow occurring. Plan on difficult travel 
  conditions. Additional snow accumulations of 1 to 2 inches are 
  expected.

* WHERE...Wyoming, Livingston, Ontario, Cattaraugus, and 
  Allegany counties.

* WHEN...Until 4 AM EST Thursday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Be prepared for significant reductions in
  visibility at times. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Widespread accumulating snow will create dangerous travel
conditions.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ003>005-080400-
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-180208T0900Z/
Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-
Including the cities of Rochester, Newark, and Fair Haven
253 PM EST Wed Feb 7 2018

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow occurring. Plan on difficult travel 
  conditions. Additional snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches are 
  expected.

* WHERE...Monroe, Wayne, and Northern Cayuga counties.

* WHEN...Until 4 AM EST Thursday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Be prepared for significant reductions in
  visibility at times. Widespread snow will transition to lake
  effect snow tonight and continue into Thursday morning.
  Accumulating snow is expected within the most persistent lake
  snows.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Widespread accumulating snow will create dangerous travel
conditions.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1244 PM EST Tue Feb 6 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Widespread light snow will taper off this morning as a weak storm
system shifts east. Lake effect snow will remain east of Lake
Ontario through today and weakening tonight as high pressure briefly
shifts over our region. A more significant storm will move up the
Appalachians and into the Northeast on Wednesday, spreading more
snow across the region. Lake effect snow will return east of Lake
Ontario for the remainder of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Band of lake effect snow off the east end of Lake Ontario has
lingered a bit further north than earlier thinking. Have slowed
the southward sag of the band slightly. The coverage of the most
intense snowfall has decreased in coverage but still could see
another 2 to maybe 4 inches where the bands persist.

Otherwise only made minor changes to the sky cover and pop
grids to cover current trends.

Previous Discussion...
Regional radar mosaic shows widespread snow continues to shift
across New York this morning with the back edge approaching Buffalo
near 7am. This snow is occurring ahead of a surface trough and
weakening mid-level shortwave trough shifting across Lake Erie. Mid
and upper level GOES-16 water vapor channels depict the weakening
trend. Snow totals from this weak system will run an inch or two
before ending this morning. Upslope areas/higher terrain could
possibly see a little more while the Genesee Valley gets a little
less from southwest downslope flow. East of Lake Ontario, a band of
lake effect snow remains embedded within the widespread synoptic
snowfall. The lake band extends between the Saint Lawrence River and
Watertown near 7am.

Through today, the weakening surface trough and mid-level shortwave
will exit east into New England. The widespread light snow will
taper off from west to east leaving the band of lake effect snow
across and east of Lake Ontario. Veering steering flow from
southwest to west in the wake of the surface trough will shift the
snow band from near Watertown/SLV south over the Tug Hill. BUFKIT
profiles from the 00z NAM continue to indicate a shallow lake band
with lake induced equilibrium level only peaking around 6kft midday
before falling back below 5kft by this evening. This shallow band is
still forecast to bring an additional 3-7 inches of snow during the
daylight hours. 00z HREF guidance also agrees with this. The higher
amounts should lie across the Tug Hill. A Winter Weather Advisory
continues through 6pm. High temperatures should remain below normal
ranging through the 20s today.

Tonight, a narrow area of high pressure should build across the
eastern Great Lakes squashing the lake effect band with subsidence
aloft. Late tonight, chances for some more widespread snow increase
ahead of our next storm system wrapping up over the southern
Appalachians. Temps will dip into the low teens for most with single
digits east of lake Ontario and in the western Southern Tier.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Moderate to potentially heavy snowfall event continuing to shape up
Wednesday into Wednesday evening, as a southern stream shortwave
ejects out of the rockies and gets absorbed into the next northern
stream impulse digging toward the Great Lakes region. This will
allow a strung out surface reflection to move east-northeast from
the Tennessee Valley through the Appalachians during the day
Wednesday, then into eastern New England Wednesday night. This
system will be fairly progressive with a relatively short period
when strong isentropic lift and frontogenesis will focus across
western and north central New York.

The snow will start early Wednesday morning and increase in
intensity by mid day and continue through Wednesday afternoon.
General model consensus suggests that about a quarter to a half of
an inch of liquid equivalent is likely across the area. Snow ratios
will be variable, with higher ratios further north. The most
efficient accumulations will be during the late morning and
afternoon as strong lift intersects the dendritic growth zone. Far
western New York will likely see the lesser snowfall amounts on the
order of several inches, with more significant amounts likely east
of Lake Ontario and across the Finger Lakes.

Most of the synoptic snow will over by midnight Wednesday night with
only some leftover light snow. However, behind the exiting system
colder air will flood the region on a northwesterly flow. There will
still be sufficient moisture to keep some upslope/lake enhanced
snows going with additional accumulations likely southeast of the
lakes.

High pressure will slide south of the area Thursday as the upper
trough crosses the lower Great Lakes. Nuisance lake snows will shift
northward off Lake Erie, while the potential for more organized
accumulating lake snows is likely east of Lake ontario.

The passage of a weak frontal boundary Thursday night will then
promote additional snow showers, with the lake snows east of Lake
Ontario being shut down in its wake.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
On Friday...a general westerly flow of sufficiently cold air will
maintain at least some lake effect snows east of Lake Ontario...while
the combination of a quasi-stationary frontal boundary and passing
weak wave of low pressure should bring some additional light synoptic
snows to areas south of Lake Ontario. Will carry likely PoPs for
both...with temperatures otherwise seasonably chilly and ranging
from the lower 20s east of Lake Ontario to the mid and upper 20s
elsewhere.

Friday night the frontal boundary/wave will depart to our southeast...
while slow but steady warming will take place aloft. Together all
of this will result in both the synoptic and lake snows winding
down...and have left chance PoPs in place to cover these as they
diminish. On Saturday some disagreement develops with respect to
how quickly the aforementioned frontal boundary returns northward
out ahead of the next low pressure system...with the 12Z GFS much
faster/more aggressive with this compared to the GEM/ECMWF...which
keep the area dry. For now have kept some lower-end chance PoPs
in the forecast to cover this possibility.

Saturday night and Sunday another area of low pressure looks to
track northeastward across the mid-Atlantic and northeastern
states...with some differences in track noted in the available
guidance. The eventual track of this low will be rather important
to the forecast as this system appears more likely to drag a slug
of warmer air northward with it...with both the GFS/ECMWF suggesting
that at least some of this will make it into our area between
Saturday night and Sunday...thereby raising issues with both temps
and ptype. Given the distant time frame...have kept PoPs for this
system in the chance range for now...while also introducing a general
rain/snow mix to highlight the potential for mixed precipitation.
into the
evening hours. A
This system should quickly exit to our east by late Sunday...with
high pressure and drier air then building across our area to close
out the period Sunday night and Monday. With temps aloft looking
to be too warm to support lake effect...this period should be
largely dry...along with seasonable temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Generally VFR conditions this afternoon, aside from lake effect
snow band affecting KART for a few more hours before shifting
south. Visibility reductions to IFR expected to continue with
this band. Some low VFR to MVFR ceilings are possible later this
afternoon into the evening before dissipating.

Tonight, VFR through most of the night. Light snow with IFR VIS will
begin to shift into western NY toward 11-12z Wednesday ahead of the
next more widespread and significant snow storm.

Outlook...

Wednesday....IFR in -SN or SN.
Thursday...VFR, with local MVFR/IFR in lake effect -SHSN.
Friday...MVFR/IFR in -SN.
Saturday...VFR-->IFR, as another system moves in.

&&

.MARINE...
Southwest winds will become west later today as a weak trough passes
the eastern Great Lakes. Winds/Waves will remain below advisory
level through today. Low pressure will pass well to the southeast on
Wednesday and will cause the flow to become easterly. The flow will
flip back to the west on Thursday as the low exits to the east and
another high builds in from the southwest. There may be another
period of Advisory worthy winds/waves with the west flow Thursday.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for
     NYZ006>008.
     Winter Storm Watch from Wednesday morning through late
     Wednesday night for NYZ003>008-012>014-020-021.
MARINE...None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
525 AM EST Tue Feb 6 2018

NYZ006>008-071030-
Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-
525 AM EST Tue Feb 6 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING...
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Storm Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ003>005-012>014-020-021-071030-
Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Wyoming-Livingston-Ontario-Cattaraugus-
Allegany-
525 AM EST Tue Feb 6 2018

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Storm Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ001-002-010-011-019-085-071030-
Niagara-Orleans-Northern Erie-Genesee-Chautauqua-Southern Erie-
525 AM EST Tue Feb 6 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

A storm passing southeast of the region will bring widespread
accumulating snow late tonight into Wednesday evening. The heaviest
snow is likely just to the east but a shift in the storm track could
bring potentially significant snow into parts of western New York.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-071030-
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
Lower Niagara River-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River-
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis-
525 AM EST Tue Feb 6 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the New York waters of Lake
Erie, Lake Ontario, and the Saint Lawrence River.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
Issued by National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1002 AM EST TUE FEB 6 2018

NYZ006-007-061700-
Jefferson-Oswego-
1002 AM EST TUE FEB 6 2018

...A BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN JEFFERSON AND
NORTH CENTRAL OSWEGO COUNTIES...

At 957 AM EST, A band of lake effect snow producing snow fall rates
of 2 to 3 inches per hour was located along a line extending from
Ellisburg to Watertown. This band of lake effect snow is slowly
moving south through the remainder of the morning.

Locations impacted include...
Watertown, Sandy Island Beach State Park, Fort Drum, Stony Point,
Adams, Dexter, Glen Park, Adams Center, Henderson Harbor, Southwick
Beach State Park, Sackets Harbor, Henderson, Black River,
Smithville, Rodman, Brownville, Lorraine, Sandy Creek, Evans Mills
and Lacona.

A winter weather advisory is in effect for the area. Please monitor
local media outlets and the national weather service for further
statements.

LAT...LON 4412 7563 4389 7574 4388 7584 4380 7585
      4379 7579 4368 7589 4360 7620 4361 7625
      4381 7626 4386 7633 4395 7613 4395 7625
      4409 7594
TIME...MOT...LOC 1457Z 260DEG 4KT 4398 7585 4362 7635