Small Craft Advisory 83, NWS Boston/Norton, MA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
1002 PM EDT Tue Jun 12 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will trigger scattered showers Wednesday into Wednesday
evening.  This will be followed by mainly dry weather along with
pleasant temperatures and low humidity for the rest of the week.
Summerlike heat and humidity returns Sunday and especially Monday. A
few showers and thunderstorms are possible sometime early next
week...but timing remains highly uncertain.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
10pm update...

Winds have weakened a bit this evening, but remain elevated
thanks to strong pres gradient which will likely continue to
some extent for the remainder of the overnight hours. This will
keep overnight mins a bit milder than previous nights, but still
comfortable, in the low-mid 50s.

Otherwise, am holding off POPs for some time as upstream
moisture will be slow to load through the column. Do not
introduce even chance POPS across CT/W MA until after 12Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Wednesday...Much of the 12/12Z guidance, and particularly the
higher resolution guidance such as the WRFs and the HREF,
indicate a swath of showers during the morning hours. These
showers look to be associated with a weak mid level shortwave
and a warm front. Both this front and shortwave should be
offshore by evening. Plenty of clouds should keep temperatures
in the 60s and 70s, right around normal.

While stronger convection remains possible, especially across
western MA late in the day, am not overly concerned about it.
Low level lapse rates should be poor from lack of sunshine. Mid
level lapse rates should be close to moist adiabatic. Not
expecting thunderstorms to develop in our region, but a few
could move into southern New England from the west late in the
day. Should the morning showers be more widespread, or even
linger longer, the result should be an even lower risk for
thunderstorms.

Wednesday night...A mid level cold pool and surface low
pressure should move across northern New England. This surface
low pressure pushes its cold front across southern New England.
This means a gradual drying out, especially after midnight.
Not expecting min temperatures to be as low as tonight, as there
is just not as much time to radiate and dewpoints should still
be higher.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Highlights...

* Mainly dry Thu/Fri/Sat with pleasant temps/low humidity
* Exception may be a few brief showers Thu night/Fri am
* Summer heat+humidity expected Sun and especially Mon
* A few showers/t-storms possible sometime early next week

Details...

Thursday through Saturday...

Upper trough sets up over New England resulting in mainly dry
weather along with pleasant temperatures and low humidity
Thu/Fri/Sat.  Highs should mainly be well up into the 70s to near
80...although a bit warmer than that by Sat.  Low temps mainly in
the upper 40s and 50s.

Mainly dry weather expected Thu/Fri/Sat...but there is a pretty
dynamic but moisture starved shortwave that moves through the region
Thu night/Fri am. It may be enough to trigger a few brief showers
with the greatest risk across eastern MA.  Even if this happens
should be short lived and not expecting appreciable rainfall.

Sunday through Tuesday...

Building upper level ridge over the central U.S. will allow a more
summerlike airmass with increasing humidity Sun and especially Mon.
Highs should be well up into the 80s to near 90 Sun and possibly
lower to middle 90s Mon...away from any marine influences.  EC/GFS
indicate 850T near +20C on Mon so decent potential for 90s...but
that is still 6 days in the future so that certainly can change. We
also will be on the southern edge of the westerlies...so the risk
for a few showers/thunderstorms are possible with highest potential
associated with a cold frontal passage. If this front follows most
guidance will see some relief from the heat/humidity sometime
Tue...but timing can certainly change at this point.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Wednesday Night/...

Tonight...High confidence. VFR and dry.

Wednesday...Moderate confidence. Mainly VFR. Although
occasional MVFR CIGS/vsbys possible in SHRA. Very low risk for
TSRA especially during the late evening.

Wednesday night...Moderate confidence.
Mainly VFR across the western half of southern New England,
with MVFR in SHRA. Becoming VFR from NW to SE farther east.
Local IFR possible, especially towards south coast. Slight
chance SHRA. Patchy BR.

Outlook /Thursday through Sunday/...

Thursday: VFR. Breezy.

Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy.
Slight chance SHRA.

Friday through Sunday: VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Wednesday Night/...

Tonight...
SW winds continue to gust to around 25-30 kt as a high pressure
moves farther offshore. Building seas across the outer coastal
waters. Will continue Small Craft Advisories.

Wednesday... Although winds will diminish some, will continue
Small Craft Advisories. Not enough confidence in timing of any
significant Windows of wind gusts below 25 kt. Do not want to
drop advisories, just to have to put them back up a few hours
later. Am expecting a lull across the nearshore waters. Rough
seas likely to continue across most of the outer coastal waters.

Wednesday Night...Winds diminish to less than 25 kt. Areas of
rough seas across the outer coastal waters will take more time
to subside.

Outlook /Thursday through Sunday/...

Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft.

Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight
chance of rain showers.

Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

Friday Night through Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ232>235-
     237.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ230.
     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ231.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ250-254.
     Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT Wednesday night for
     ANZ251.
     Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Wednesday to 7 AM EDT Thursday
     for ANZ255-256.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Belk/Frank
NEAR TERM...Doody
SHORT TERM...Belk
LONG TERM...Frank
AVIATION...Belk/Frank
MARINE...Belk/Frank

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
336 PM EDT Tue Jun 12 2018

CTZ003-004-MAZ004>007-012>024-026-RIZ001>008-131945-
Tolland CT-Windham CT-Northern Worcester MA-Central Middlesex MA-
Western Essex MA-Eastern Essex MA-Southern Worcester MA-
Western Norfolk MA-Southeast Middlesex MA-Suffolk MA-
Eastern Norfolk MA-Northern Bristol MA-Western Plymouth MA-
Eastern Plymouth MA-Southern Bristol MA-Southern Plymouth MA-
Barnstable MA-Dukes MA-Nantucket MA-Northern Middlesex MA-
Northwest Providence RI-Southeast Providence RI-Western Kent RI-
Eastern Kent RI-Bristol RI-Washington RI-Newport RI-Block Island RI-
336 PM EDT Tue Jun 12 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Connecticut, central
Massachusetts, eastern Massachusetts, northeastern Massachusetts,
southeastern Massachusetts, and Rhode Island.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

..SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT......

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256-131945-
Boston Harbor-Cape Cod Bay-Nantucket Sound-Vineyard Sound-
Buzzards Bay-Rhode Island Sound-Narragansett Bay-Block Island Sound-
Coastal waters east of Ipswich Bay and the Stellwagen Bank National
Marine Sanctuary-Massachusetts Bay and Ipswich Bay-
Coastal waters from Provincetown MA to Chatham MA to Nantucket MA
out 20 nm-
Coastal Waters extending out to 25 nm South of Marthas Vineyard and
Nantucket-
Coastal Waters from Montauk NY to Marthas Vineyard extending out to
20 nm South of Block Island-
336 PM EDT Tue Jun 12 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Massachusetts and Rhode
Island coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

..SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT......

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

CTZ002-MAZ002-003-008>011-131945-
Hartford CT-Western Franklin MA-Eastern Franklin MA-
Western Hampshire MA-Western Hampden MA-Eastern Hampshire MA-
Eastern Hampden MA-
336 PM EDT Tue Jun 12 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Connecticut and
western Massachusetts.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

There is the low risk for a strong thunderstorm or two with gusty
winds Wednesday evening. This threat is mainly near and west of a
Hartford CT, to Springfield MA, to Orange MA line.

..SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT......

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

Belk/Frank

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