Coastal Flood Statement 4, NWS Boston/Norton, MA

880 
WHUS41 KBOX 051601
CFWBOX

Coastal Hazard Message
National Weather Service Taunton MA
1101 AM EST Mon Mar 5 2018

MAZ007-015-016-019-022-024-052000-
/O.CON.KBOX.CF.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-180305T2000Z/
Eastern Essex MA-Suffolk MA-Eastern Norfolk MA-
Eastern Plymouth MA-Barnstable MA-Nantucket MA-
1101 AM EST Mon Mar 5 2018

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* LOCATION...Massachusetts eastern coastline including Nantucket.

* TIDAL DEPARTURE...1.5 to 2 feet Boston and north, 2 to 2.5 feet
  south of Boston to Plymouth to Dennis, and 2.5 to 3 feet Chatham
  and Nantucket.

* TIMING...The afternoon high tide.

* COASTAL FLOOD IMPACTS...Minor coastal flooding and splash over
  are expected during the afternoon high tide cycle. The typical
  low lying areas will experience inundation less than a foot in
  vulnerable spots as well as locations that have received
  breaches in dunes and seawalls. For Nantucket, minor to moderate
  coastal flooding is expected this afternoon with inundation
  depths up to a little over a foot in spots. Some locations will
  be more vulnerable given the impacts from this long duration 
  event.

* SHORELINE IMPACTS...Moderate to severe erosion will persist
  along the Nantucket east side around the time of the afternoon
  high tide.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Coastal Flood Advisory is issued for minor coastal flooding of
the most vulnerable shore roads and/or basements due to the
height of storm tide or wave splashover. The majority of roads
remain passable with only isolated closures. There is no
significant threat to life...and impact on property is minimal.

&&

&&

Time of high total tides are approximate to the nearest hour.
Category thresholds are based on still water levels. Impacts 
may be greater, depending upon wave action.

Newburyport
MLLW Categories - Minor 11.0 FT, Moderate 12.5 FT, Major 14.0 FT
MHHW Categories - Minor 1.5 FT, Moderate 3.0 FT, Major 4.5 FT

             Total      Total    Departure
 Day/Time    Tide       Tide     from Norm   Waves    Flood
            ft MLLW    ft MHHW       ft       ft      Impact
 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  -------  --------
 05/02 PM   9.9/10.4   0.4/ 0.9   1.1/ 1.6   13-14     None
 06/02 AM  10.0/10.5   0.5/ 1.0   1.1/ 1.6     11      None
 06/03 PM   8.7/ 9.2  -0.9/-0.4   0.4/ 0.9    9-10     None
 07/03 AM   8.8/ 9.3  -0.8/-0.2   0.2/ 0.7     7       None
 07/04 PM   8.0/ 8.5  -1.6/-1.1   0.2/ 0.7    7-8      None
 08/04 AM   9.2/ 9.7  -0.3/ 0.2   0.9/ 1.4     12      None

Gloucester Harbor
MLLW Categories - Minor 12.0 FT, Moderate 14.5 FT, Major 15.5 FT
MHHW Categories - Minor 2.5 FT, Moderate 5.0 FT, Major 6.0 FT

             Total      Total    Departure
 Day/Time    Tide       Tide     from Norm   Waves    Flood
            ft MLLW    ft MHHW       ft       ft      Impact
 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  -------  --------
 05/02 PM  11.7/12.2   2.2/ 2.7   1.8/ 2.2     15     Minor
 06/02 AM  11.6/12.1   2.1/ 2.6   1.7/ 2.2     13     Minor
 06/02 PM  10.4/10.9   0.9/ 1.4   1.0/ 1.5     11      None
 07/03 AM  10.2/10.7   0.7/ 1.1   0.7/ 1.1     9       None
 07/03 PM   9.4/ 9.9  -0.2/ 0.3   0.6/ 1.1    8-9      None
 08/04 AM  10.6/11.1   1.1/ 1.6   1.5/ 2.0   14-15     None

Boston Harbor
MLLW Categories - Minor 12.5 FT, Moderate 15.0 FT, Major 16.0 FT
MHHW Categories - Minor 2.4 FT, Moderate 4.9 FT, Major 5.9 FT

             Total      Total    Departure
 Day/Time    Tide       Tide     from Norm   Waves    Flood
            ft MLLW    ft MHHW       ft       ft      Impact
 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  -------  --------
 05/02 PM  12.1/12.6   2.0/ 2.5   1.6/ 2.0     2      Minor
 06/02 AM  11.8/12.3   1.7/ 2.2   1.4/ 1.9     2       None
 06/03 PM  10.6/11.1   0.5/ 1.0   0.8/ 1.3    1-2      None
 07/03 AM  10.5/11.0   0.4/ 0.9   0.5/ 1.0     1       None
 07/03 PM   9.6/10.1  -0.6/-0.1   0.4/ 0.9     2       None
 08/04 AM  10.7/11.2   0.6/ 1.1   1.2/ 1.7     2       None

Revere
MLLW Categories - Minor 12.5 FT, Moderate 15.0 FT, Major 16.5 FT
MHHW Categories - Minor 2.6 FT, Moderate 5.1 FT, Major 6.6 FT

             Total      Total    Departure
 Day/Time    Tide       Tide     from Norm   Waves    Flood
            ft MLLW    ft MHHW       ft       ft      Impact
 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  -------  --------
 05/02 PM  12.2/12.7   2.2/ 2.7   1.8/ 2.2     11     Minor
 06/02 AM  12.0/12.5   2.1/ 2.6   1.7/ 2.2     10      None
 06/03 PM  10.7/11.2   0.8/ 1.3   1.0/ 1.5    8-9      None
 07/03 AM  10.5/11.0   0.6/ 1.1   0.7/ 1.1    6-7      None
 07/03 PM   9.7/10.2  -0.2/ 0.2   0.6/ 1.1    6-7      None
 08/04 AM  10.8/11.3   0.9/ 1.4   1.5/ 2.0   10-11     None

Scituate
MLLW Categories - Minor 11.5 FT, Moderate 14.0 FT, Major 16.0 FT
MHHW Categories - Minor 1.8 FT, Moderate 4.3 FT, Major 6.3 FT

             Total      Total    Departure
 Day/Time    Tide       Tide     from Norm   Waves    Flood
            ft MLLW    ft MHHW       ft       ft      Impact
 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  -------  --------
 05/02 PM  12.0/12.5   2.2/ 2.7   2.0/ 2.5   15-16    Minor
 06/02 AM  11.6/12.1   1.9/ 2.3   1.5/ 2.0     12     Minor
 06/03 PM  10.3/10.8   0.6/ 1.1   0.8/ 1.3   10-11     None
 07/03 AM  10.2/10.7   0.5/ 1.0   0.5/ 1.0     8       None
 07/03 PM   9.3/ 9.8  -0.5/ 0.0   0.4/ 0.9    7-8      None
 08/04 AM  10.5/11.0   0.8/ 1.3   1.2/ 1.7   11-12     None

Sandwich / Dennis
MLLW Categories - Minor 13.0 FT, Moderate 14.0 FT, Major 15.5 FT
MHHW Categories - Minor 2.7 FT, Moderate 3.7 FT, Major 5.2 FT

             Total      Total    Departure
 Day/Time    Tide       Tide     from Norm   Waves    Flood
            ft MLLW    ft MHHW       ft       ft      Impact
 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  -------  --------
 05/02 PM  12.6/13.1   2.2/ 2.7   2.2/ 2.7    9-10    Minor
 06/02 AM  12.1/12.6   1.8/ 2.2   1.8/ 2.2    6-7     Minor
 06/03 PM  10.7/11.2   0.4/ 0.9   1.1/ 1.6    4-5      None
 07/03 AM  10.5/11.0   0.2/ 0.7   0.7/ 1.1    2-3      None
 07/03 PM   9.6/10.1  -0.8/-0.2   0.6/ 1.1    3-4      None
 08/04 AM  10.9/11.4   0.6/ 1.1   1.5/ 2.0     4       None

Provincetown Harbor
MLLW Categories - Minor 12.5 FT, Moderate 13.5 FT, Major 15.0 FT
MHHW Categories - Minor 2.4 FT, Moderate 3.4 FT, Major 4.9 FT

             Total      Total    Departure
 Day/Time    Tide       Tide     from Norm   Waves    Flood
            ft MLLW    ft MHHW       ft       ft      Impact
 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  -------  --------
 05/02 PM  12.8/13.3   2.7/ 3.2   2.1/ 2.6     6      Minor
 06/02 AM  12.4/12.9   2.2/ 2.7   1.7/ 2.2    3-5      None
 06/03 PM  11.1/11.6   1.0/ 1.5   1.0/ 1.5    1-2      None
 07/03 AM  11.0/11.5   0.9/ 1.4   0.7/ 1.1     2       None
 07/04 PM  10.2/10.7   0.1/ 0.6   0.7/ 1.1    3-5      None
 08/04 AM  11.3/11.8   1.2/ 1.7   1.4/ 1.9    3-4      None

Chatham - East Coast
MLLW Categories - Minor 9.5 FT, Moderate 12.0 FT, Major 13.0 FT
MHHW Categories - Minor 1.8 FT, Moderate 4.3 FT, Major 5.3 FT

             Total      Total    Departure
 Day/Time    Tide       Tide     from Norm   Waves    Flood
            ft MLLW    ft MHHW       ft       ft      Impact
 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  -------  --------
 05/03 PM   8.5/ 9.0   0.8/ 1.3   2.7/ 3.2   14-17    Minor
 06/03 AM   7.7/ 8.2   0.0/ 0.5   1.8/ 2.2   12-13     None
 06/03 PM   6.5/ 7.0  -1.3/-0.8   1.0/ 1.5   10-11     None
 07/04 AM   6.5/ 7.0  -1.3/-0.8   0.7/ 1.1     8       None
 07/04 PM   5.9/ 6.4  -1.9/-1.4   0.7/ 1.1    7-10     None
 08/05 AM   6.9/ 7.4  -0.9/-0.4   1.3/ 1.8   10-11     None

Chatham - South Coast
MLLW Categories - Minor 9.0 FT, Moderate 10.5 FT, Major 11.5 FT
MHHW Categories - Minor 4.5 FT, Moderate 6.0 FT, Major 7.0 FT

             Total      Total    Departure
 Day/Time    Tide       Tide     from Norm   Waves    Flood
            ft MLLW    ft MHHW       ft       ft      Impact
 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  -------  --------
 05/03 PM   5.5/ 6.0   1.0/ 1.5   1.7/ 2.2     3       None
 06/03 AM   5.5/ 6.0   1.0/ 1.5   1.6/ 2.0     3       None
 06/04 PM   4.4/ 4.9  -0.2/ 0.3   0.9/ 1.4     2       None
 07/04 AM   4.5/ 5.0   0.0/ 0.5   0.7/ 1.1     2       None
 07/05 PM   4.0/ 4.5  -0.6/-0.1   0.7/ 1.1    2-4      None
 08/05 AM   5.2/ 5.7   0.7/ 1.1   1.5/ 2.0     3       None

Buzzards Bay - Woods Hole
MLLW Categories - Minor 5.5 FT, Moderate 7.0 FT, Major 8.5 FT
MHHW Categories - Minor 3.5 FT, Moderate 5.0 FT, Major 6.5 FT

             Total      Total    Departure
 Day/Time    Tide       Tide     from Norm   Waves    Flood
            ft MLLW    ft MHHW       ft       ft      Impact
 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  -------  --------
 05/11 AM   3.2/ 3.7   1.2/ 1.7   0.9/ 1.4     3       None
 05/11 PM   3.4/ 3.9   1.4/ 1.9   0.9/ 1.4     3       None
 06/11 AM   2.7/ 3.2   0.8/ 1.3   0.7/ 1.1    1-2      None
 07/12 AM   2.7/ 3.2   0.7/ 1.1   0.4/ 0.9     1       None
 07/12 PM   2.2/ 2.7   0.2/ 0.7   0.2/ 0.8    1-2      None
 08/01 AM   3.4/ 3.9   1.4/ 1.9   1.3/ 1.8    2-3      None

Wings Neck
MLLW Categories - Minor 6.5 FT, Moderate 9.0 FT, Major 11.5 FT
MHHW Categories - Minor 2.2 FT, Moderate 4.7 FT, Major 7.2 FT

             Total      Total    Departure
 Day/Time    Tide       Tide     from Norm   Waves    Flood
            ft MLLW    ft MHHW       ft       ft      Impact
 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  -------  --------
 05/10 AM   5.2/ 5.7   1.0/ 1.5   1.2/ 1.7     3       None
 05/11 PM   5.7/ 6.2   1.4/ 1.9   1.4/ 1.9     3       None
 06/11 AM   4.4/ 4.9   0.1/ 0.6   0.6/ 1.1    1-2      None
 07/12 AM   4.4/ 4.9   0.1/ 0.6   0.4/ 0.9     1       None
 07/12 PM   3.6/ 4.1  -0.8/-0.2   0.2/ 0.7     1       None
 08/12 AM   4.7/ 5.2   0.5/ 1.0   1.1/ 1.6    1-3      None

Nantucket Harbor
MLLW Categories - Minor 5.0 FT, Moderate 6.5 FT, Major 8.0 FT
MHHW Categories - Minor 1.4 FT, Moderate 2.9 FT, Major 4.4 FT

             Total      Total    Departure
 Day/Time    Tide       Tide     from Norm   Waves    Flood
            ft MLLW    ft MHHW       ft       ft      Impact
 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  -------  --------
 05/03 PM   5.9/ 6.4   2.2/ 2.7   2.7/ 3.2    4-5    Minor-Mdt
 06/03 AM   5.0/ 5.5   1.4/ 1.9   1.7/ 2.2    5-6     Minor
 06/04 PM   3.9/ 4.4   0.2/ 0.8   1.0/ 1.5     4       None
 07/04 AM   3.7/ 4.2   0.2/ 0.7   0.6/ 1.1     4       None
 07/05 PM   3.4/ 3.9  -0.2/ 0.2   0.7/ 1.1    4-6      None
 08/05 AM   4.5/ 5.0   0.9/ 1.4   1.4/ 1.9     4       None

Nantucket East Coast - Erosion Impacts

             Total      Total    Departure
 Day/Time    Tide       Tide     from Norm   Waves    Flood
            ft MLLW    ft MHHW       ft       ft      Impact
 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  -------  --------
 05/03 PM   6.2/ 6.8   2.2/ 2.7   2.7/ 3.2   14-19   Moderate
 06/03 AM   5.5/ 6.0   1.4/ 1.9   1.8/ 2.2     10     Minor
 06/03 PM   4.5/ 5.0   0.4/ 0.9   1.1/ 1.6     9       None
 07/04 AM   4.2/ 4.7   0.2/ 0.7   0.7/ 1.1     8       None
 07/04 PM   4.0/ 4.5  -0.2/ 0.3   0.8/ 1.3    7-9      None
 08/05 AM   4.7/ 5.2   0.7/ 1.1   1.3/ 1.8     9       None

Nantucket - Madaket Area Erosion Impacts

             Total      Total    Departure
 Day/Time    Tide       Tide     from Norm   Waves    Flood
            ft MLLW    ft MHHW       ft       ft      Impact
 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  -------  --------
 05/02 PM   4.5/ 5.0   3.1/ 3.6   2.0/ 2.5     6       None
 06/03 AM   4.2/ 4.7   2.7/ 3.2   1.7/ 2.2    5-6      None
 06/03 PM   3.2/ 3.7   1.9/ 2.3   1.0/ 1.5     5       None
 07/04 AM   3.1/ 3.6   1.7/ 2.2   0.7/ 1.1     4       None
 07/04 PM   2.8/ 3.4   1.5/ 2.0   0.7/ 1.1    4-6      None
 08/04 AM   3.7/ 4.2   2.3/ 2.8   1.5/ 2.0    6-7      None

$$

RIZ004>007-051715-
/O.CON.KBOX.CF.S.0004.000000T0000Z-180305T1700Z/
Eastern Kent RI-Bristol RI-Washington RI-Newport RI-
1101 AM EST Mon Mar 5 2018

...Splashover During Today's High Tides|...

* LOCATION...Rhode Island south coast and Narragansett Bay 
  communities.

* TIDAL DEPARTURE...Storm Surge of 1.5 feet.

* TIMING...The mid-morning high tide and possibly again for the
  evening high tide.

* COASTAL FLOOD IMPACTS...Minor coastal flooding is possible
  within low lying regions of Narragansett Bay. Some splashover is
  likely along ocean exposed facing shorelines facing southeast.

* SHORELINE IMPACTS...Some beach erosion may persist along some
  southeast facing shorelines.

&&

Time of high total tides are approximate to the nearest hour.
Category thresholds are based on still water levels. Impacts 
may be greater, depending upon wave action.

Narragansett Bay - Conimicut Point
MLLW Categories - Minor 7.0 FT, Moderate 8.5 FT, Major 10.0 FT
MHHW Categories - Minor 2.4 FT, Moderate 3.9 FT, Major 5.4 FT

             Total      Total    Departure
 Day/Time    Tide       Tide     from Norm   Waves    Flood
            ft MLLW    ft MHHW       ft       ft      Impact
 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  -------  --------
 05/10 AM   5.9/ 6.4   1.3/ 1.8   1.6/ 2.0     3       None
 05/11 PM   6.2/ 6.8   1.7/ 2.2   1.7/ 2.2    2-3      None
 06/11 AM   4.5/ 5.0  -0.2/ 0.3   0.6/ 1.1     1       None
 07/12 AM   4.6/ 5.1   0.0/ 0.5   0.4/ 0.9     1       None
 07/12 PM   3.7/ 4.2  -0.9/-0.4   0.2/ 0.7     1       None
 08/12 AM   5.1/ 5.6   0.5/ 1.0   1.3/ 1.8     2       None

Narragansett Bay - Quonset Point
MLLW Categories - Minor 5.0 FT, Moderate 6.0 FT, Major 7.5 FT
MHHW Categories - Minor 0.9 FT, Moderate 1.9 FT, Major 3.4 FT

             Total      Total    Departure
 Day/Time    Tide       Tide     from Norm   Waves    Flood
            ft MLLW    ft MHHW       ft       ft      Impact
 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  -------  --------
 05/10 AM   5.4/ 5.9   1.3/ 1.8   1.5/ 2.0     3       None
 05/11 PM   5.7/ 6.2   1.6/ 2.0   1.6/ 2.0    2-3     Minor
 06/11 AM   4.0/ 4.5   0.0/ 0.5   0.5/ 1.0     1       None
 07/12 AM   4.0/ 4.5   0.0/ 0.5   0.2/ 0.8     1       None
 07/12 PM   3.6/ 4.1  -0.6/-0.1   0.2/ 0.8     1       None
 08/12 AM   4.9/ 5.4   0.8/ 1.3   1.4/ 1.9    1-3      None

Point Judith
MLLW Categories - Minor 8.0 FT, Moderate 9.5 FT, Major 11.0 FT
MHHW Categories - Minor 4.5 FT, Moderate 6.0 FT, Major 7.5 FT

             Total      Total    Departure
 Day/Time    Tide       Tide     from Norm   Waves    Flood
            ft MLLW    ft MHHW       ft       ft      Impact
 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  -------  --------
 05/10 AM   4.5/ 5.0   1.0/ 1.5   1.4/ 1.9     7       None
 05/11 PM   4.7/ 5.2   1.2/ 1.7   1.4/ 1.9     6       None
 06/11 AM   3.4/ 3.9  -0.2/ 0.3   0.6/ 1.1     5       None
 06/11 PM   3.4/ 3.9  -0.2/ 0.3   0.4/ 0.9     4       None
 07/12 PM   2.7/ 3.2  -0.8/-0.2   0.2/ 0.8    4-5      None
 08/12 AM   4.2/ 4.7   0.7/ 1.1   1.4/ 1.9     7       None

Westerly
MLLW Categories - Minor 5.0 FT, Moderate 8.0 FT, Major 9.5 FT
MHHW Categories - Minor 1.9 FT, Moderate 4.9 FT, Major 6.4 FT

             Total      Total    Departure
 Day/Time    Tide       Tide     from Norm   Waves    Flood
            ft MLLW    ft MHHW       ft       ft      Impact
 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  -------  --------
 05/11 AM   4.2/ 4.7   1.1/ 1.6   1.5/ 2.0    4-5      None
 06/12 AM   4.2/ 4.7   1.1/ 1.6   1.4/ 1.9     4       None
 06/12 PM   3.1/ 3.6   0.0/ 0.5   0.6/ 1.1     3       None
 07/01 AM   3.0/ 3.5  -0.2/ 0.3   0.4/ 0.9     3       None
 07/01 PM   2.6/ 3.1  -0.6/-0.1   0.4/ 0.9    3-5      None
 08/01 AM   4.0/ 4.5   0.9/ 1.4   1.6/ 2.0     5       None

Newport Harbor
MLLW Categories - Minor 6.6 FT, Moderate 9.0 FT, Major 10.5 FT
MHHW Categories - Minor 2.5 FT, Moderate 5.9 FT, Major 6.4 FT

             Total      Total    Departure
 Day/Time    Tide       Tide     from Norm   Waves    Flood
            ft MLLW    ft MHHW       ft       ft      Impact
 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  -------  --------
 05/10 AM   5.6/ 6.1   1.5/ 2.0   1.7/ 2.2     3       None
 05/11 PM   5.7/ 6.2   1.7/ 2.2   1.7/ 2.2    2-3      None
 06/11 AM   4.0/ 4.5   0.0/ 0.5   0.6/ 1.1     1       None
 07/12 AM   4.0/ 4.5   0.0/ 0.5   0.4/ 0.9     1       None
 07/12 PM   3.5/ 4.0  -0.7/-0.2   0.2/ 0.8     1       None
 08/12 AM   4.7/ 5.2   0.7/ 1.1   1.4/ 1.9    2-3      None

$$

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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
1256 AM EST Mon Mar 5 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A fast moving disturbance will bring a period of snow to much
of the region late tonight into early Monday morning with minor
accumulations possible. Drier weather then moves in for late
Monday into Tuesday. A winter storm is looking more likely
Wednesday into early Thursday with significant snow and wind,
then a trend toward drier but colder weather follows later
Thursday into Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

* Minor snow accumulations overnight especially across southeast MA

Cut-off 500 mb low continues to dive southeastward very early
this morning. This low will drag an inverted mid-level trough
through southern New England resulting in sct showers across the
area. Current radar imagery shows snow showers coming to an end
across the CT valley. This is most likely because the focus is
shifting to what is occurring north and east of the region.
However, still cannot rule out isolated snow showers but overall
trend should be diminishing.

Through the overnight hours, passing wave from the Gulf of
Mexico will push through on the backside of the 500 mb low.
Increasing low level RH between 0-1 km combined with steepening
low level lapse rates and good QG forcing will help trigger more
widespread precip after 1or 2 am. You can already see this
precip focus across the NH and southern ME. As the night goes
on, good 850 mb WAA and increasing mid-level moisture as noted
at the 700 mb level will help increase precip rate between
06-12z. This may result in a coasting to 2 inches on the ground.
Have noticed some of the guidance shows a bit of an enhancement
across Plymouth county/upper Cape, but with temperatures in the
33-35 range and dewpoints closer to the low 30s will limit
snowfall from accumulating. However, if precip rates are
intense enough then it will overcome the marginal temperature
profile. Will fine tune the SPS here to focus on eastern MA but
feel the trend in 3 inches is down.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
* Wind headlines posted Monday for the Cape/Islands

Monday...

Any lingering snow showers should come to an end across the
southeast New England coast by mid to late Monday morning.
Otherwise...main story will be another round of strong winds across
the Cape/Islands as the ocean storm temporarily retrogrades
increasing the pressure gradient.  Northerly wind gusts of 40 to 50
mph are expected for the Cape and Islands where a wind advisory has
been posted.  Further inland across the coastal plain it will not be
quite as windy...but still expect some gusts around 35 mph.

Otherwise, after any lingering snow showers end by late Monday
morning along the southeast New England coast mainly dry weather is
on tap for Monday.  We will once again see an abundance of
clouds...but a few peeks of sunshine are also expected.  High
temperatures will mainly be in the upper 30s to the lower 40s.

Monday night...

The ocean storm will once again begin to move slowly east allowing
the strong winds to gradually diminish along the southeast New
England coast.  A bit more colder air will filter into the region
from northern New England than we have seen in recent days...so
expect overnight low temps to drop into the 20s to the lower 30s.
NNE low level flow and 850T between -8C and -10C may allow for
scattered flurries/light snow showers along the eastern MA
coast...but not expecting anything more than a dusting at this
time.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Highlights...

* Temperatures at or cooler than normal this period
* Tuesday - pick of the week with light winds and sunshine
* Significant Snow and Wind Possible Wednesday into early Thursday
* Cool but with improvement toward the weekend

Overview and model preferences...
Examining both teleconnections and H5 GPH anomalies continues
to favor a gradual breakdown in the amplification and blocking
pattern through the late week. AO/NAO/PNA all continue to trend
toward neutral from their strongly negative magnitude this
weekend. This results and gradually diminishing positive height
anomalies within the block as it retrogrades into QC from
Labrador. However, as this gradual transition occurs, it also
allows Pacific energy to get caught up with arctic influenced PV
anomaly diving S along the W periphery of the weakening block,
shifting from Hudsons Bay S toward the Great Lakes. How
efficiently these phase, if at all, will help to determine the
track of a secondary coastal low pres, which will develop as the
energy from the parent Great Lakes mid week. This is the
potential storm that has been advertised over the last 48 hours,
and will be the feature to watch this coming week. There
remains enough spread in final track of the coastal low between
both operational and ensemble guidance to continue leaning on an
overall mean between ensembles (most weight) and operational
guidance (less weight). Will continue with this blend throughout
the remainder of the long term forecast.

Details...

Tuesday...
Overall a pleasant March day. H92 temps hover in the -2C to
-3C range with mixing likely reaching just beyond, which should
yield high temps in the low-mid 40s. Agree with previous
forecaster that there is likely to be some clouds around to
spoil the sunshine at times given we are wedged between the
strong offshore storm from this weekend and a parent low pres
over the Great lakes. However, dry wx will prevail.

Wed into Thu...
Some of the necessary players continue to fall in line for a
typical S New England coastal storm with accumulating snowfall,
some strong winds and potential for p-type issues across SE
portions of the forecast area. Given the overall pattern becomes
more progressive, PWAT plume is unable to tap Gulf of Mexico
moisture like this previous system did, and as such PWATs only
rise to 1 standard deviation above normal, or around 0.75in.
Even though this moisture plume is not overly impressive, as the
coastal low deepens toward 980hPa and makes its closest pass
overnight Wed night, there will be strong dynamic forcing to
make up the difference. Noting that within a well defined trowal
resides an strong Ely LLJ, 50-60 kt (3 std deviations above
climatology) which will shift toward S New England as the low
passes. Also, noting that as the low deepens, low-mid lvl
heights cutoff, suggesting a good setup for banding. While these
all suggest the possibility of a high QPF event, (and indeed
ensemble probabilities still support final liquid totals over
1.00), the actual track will define the SLRs, where the banding
sets up, and whether a change to rain is imminent across the E
third of S New England. 12Z Operational GFS remains a W outlier,
bringing the low pres well inside the 40/70 benchmark and even
over Cape Cod. Of the operational models, CMC is now well S of
the benchmark, with a miss. ECMWF and several ensemble members
are in between, but this will have to be watched.

All in all, taking a mean approach still supports a good setup
for interior MA/RI/CT, especially in the higher terrain where
some upslope under E flow is enhanced. With QPF still ranging
between 0.75-1.50in (similar to last couple of runs), the risk
for warning level snow is rising as even if lower 10 to 1 SLRs
are observed and this could include the I-95 corridor if the
clustering toward the 40/70 benchmark continues. The key is the
introduction of temps of +2C or higher along this area, which
could force a change to rain. Expect totals to become more
refined with time.

Strong winds are also a risk especially across the E/SE
assuming the core of the LLJ does not push too far SE given
50-60kt at H92. The better news, is that given this is a more
progressive system, and astro-tides will be much lower, coastal
flooding looks to be a low risk at this point. Only caveat may
be areas that are left vulnerable and/or of the low pres slows.
Something to watch, but a much lower risk.

Fri...
Although improvement from late Thu into early Fri is expected,
the coastal low pres is likely to Fujiwhara somewhat as it
encounters the remnants of the storm from the last 48 hours
offshore. This may actually force a slight retrograde as the
upper lvls show signs of cutting off. Dry slot will be wrapping
into the system with time however, which could help prevent it
from being too significant in the long run, but will have to
watch this process and help trap some of the milder air aloft
initially. Again, will need to watch this as it could yield more
snow even well after the initial impacts have passed. Temps mid
30s to low 40s.

Next weekend...
Cutoff should begin a slow slide into the Maritimes which will
finally allow the core of a modified arctic airmass to move into
New England. H92 temps dip as low as -6C as a mean, so expect
highs to be limited in the 30s most likely. However, noting
enough subsidence and influence of high pres to suggest mainly
dry conditions.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Tuesday/...

Overnight...Moderate confidence.
Areas of light -SN/RA continue through early AM hours, but trend
toward -SN everywhere. Overall, vsbys in the -SN should remain
generally VFR to higher end MVFR. Between the hours of 03Z and
10Z and especially E MA/RI, -SN could yield predominantly MVFR
vsbys, along with MVFR CIGS all sites. Coating to about 2 inches
mainly on the grass with mostly just wet runways. The -SN tapers
off between 09Z-12Z. Otherwise N-NW winds increase overnight
with sustained winds 10-15 kt most terminals (20-25 kt outer
Cape/Islands) and gusts 20-30 kt most terminals (35-45 outer
Cape/Islands) peaking during the early morning.

Monday...Moderate to high confidence. No significant changes
for Mon with 00Z TAF update. MVFR conditions in the morning
should improve to mainly VFR by afternoon. Some lingering light
snow showers across the Cape/Islands should end by mid to late
morning. NNE wind gusts around 30 knots along the coastal
plain...but 35 to 45 knots across the Cape/Islands.

Monday night...Moderate to high confidence. Mainly VFR conditions
but some marginal MVFR cigs may develop along the coast with NNE
flow. Strong NNE wind gusts along the southeast New England coast
should gradually diminish after as the night wears along.

KBOS Terminal...High confidence in overall TAF trends. Timing
may be off a bit. Mainly VFR in -SN through about 03Z with
occasional MVFR vsbys and dominant MVFR CIGS through 10Z with
slightly heavier SN. Accumulations mainly on grass rather than
runways, which should remain mostly wet. SN/CIGS taper through
the morning.

KBDL Terminal...Moderate confidence. SHSN linger through about
04Z before ending for the most part. However, MVFR conditions
linger as lower CIGS remain in place through early AM.

Outlook /Tuesday Night through Friday/...

Tuesday: Mainly VFR.

Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR.

Wednesday: IFR with LIFR conditions possible. Windy with local
gusts to 30 kt. SN with some rain possible mainly southeast.

Wednesday Night: Mainly IFR, with local LIFR possible. Windy
with gusts to 30 kt. SN, RA.

Thursday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Windy with local gusts
to 30 kt. Lingering SN changing to RA.

Thursday Night: Mainly VFR. Breezy. Slight chance SHSN.

Friday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy. Slight
chance SHRA, slight chance SHSN.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Tuesday/...

Tonight and Monday...High confidence.  Retrograding ocean storm will
once again increase the pressure gradient late tonight and Monday.
The result will be NNE wind gusts increasing to between 35 to 45
knots over most waters and Gale Headlines are in effect.  Seas also
will not be able to subside and remain at 10 to 15+ feet across our
eastern waters.

Monday night...High confidence.  Gale force wind gusts will slowly
subside from west to east Monday night as the ocean storm begins to
move east of the region again.  Nonetheless...still expect northerly
wind gusts of 25 to 30 knots by daybreak Tuesday across most
waters.

Outlook /Tuesday Night through Friday/...

Tuesday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up
to 25 kt. Rough seas up to 16 ft.

Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Rough seas up to 14 ft.
Small craft advisories continue.

Wednesday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with local
gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 12 ft. Rain. Visibility 1
to 3 nm.

Wednesday Night: Gale force winds with gusts up to 35 kt. Rough
seas up to 17 ft. Rain, snow. Local visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Thursday: Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt.
Rough seas up to 17 ft. Chance of rain. Local visibility 1 to 3
nm.

Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Rough seas up to 12 ft.
Small craft advisories remain in place for seas.

Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Slight
chance of rain showers.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Minor flooding continues along the Pawcatuck, Taunton
and Pawtuxet Rivers. Please see our latest Flood Warnings for
more information on these rivers.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
* Coastal Flood Advisory Overnight Across Eastern MA

Although astronomical tides continue to lower persistent strong NNE
winds gusts and 10 to 15+ foot seas offshore will likely result in
pockets of minor coastal flooding during the overnight high tide
cycle across the eastern MA coast.  Impacts certainly much less than
Friday or Saturday...but some shoreline roads will be impacted and
areas that have experienced damage may see things exacerbated.  The
Monday afternoon and the late Monday night high tide may also
experience some minor impacts.

For the work week...Seas and surge will slowly subside through
Tuesday. The astronomical high tide continues to slowly decline.
In fact, the tide will be low enough to mitigate impacts from
another, albeit probably more progressive, nor'easter which
looks affect our region during mid week.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 AM EST early this morning for
     MAZ007-016-019-022-024.
     Wind Advisory from 5 AM early this morning to 6 PM EST this
     evening for MAZ022>024.
RI...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 9 PM EST this evening for ANZ232.
     Gale Warning until 9 PM EST this evening for ANZ231-233>235-
     237-251-256.
     Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EST this evening for ANZ230-
     236.
     Gale Warning until 1 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ250.
     Gale Warning until 4 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ254-255.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Frank/Doody
NEAR TERM...Dunten
SHORT TERM...Frank
LONG TERM...Doody
AVIATION...Doody/Dunten
MARINE...Frank
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Taunton MA
407 PM EST Sun Mar 4 2018

CTZ002>004-MAZ002>006-008>015-017-018-020-021-026-RIZ001>008-052115-
Hartford CT-Tolland CT-Windham CT-Western Franklin MA-
Eastern Franklin MA-Northern Worcester MA-Central Middlesex MA-
Western Essex MA-Western Hampshire MA-Western Hampden MA-
Eastern Hampshire MA-Eastern Hampden MA-Southern Worcester MA-
Western Norfolk MA-Southeast Middlesex MA-Suffolk MA-
Northern Bristol MA-Western Plymouth MA-Southern Bristol MA-
Southern Plymouth MA-Northern Middlesex MA-Northwest Providence RI-
Southeast Providence RI-Western Kent RI-Eastern Kent RI-Bristol RI-
Washington RI-Newport RI-Block Island RI-
407 PM EST Sun Mar 4 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Connecticut, central
Massachusetts, eastern Massachusetts, northeastern Massachusetts,
southeastern Massachusetts, western Massachusetts, and Rhode Island.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Potential for significant snow and wind early Wednesday into early
Thursday. Uncertainty remains on where the rain-snow line will
setup, thus too early to say where (inland vs the coast) exactly the
greatest risk for significant snow will occur.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

MAZ007-016-019-052115-
Eastern Essex MA-Eastern Norfolk MA-Eastern Plymouth MA-
407 PM EST Sun Mar 4 2018

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM
EST MONDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern Massachusetts,
northeastern Massachusetts and southeastern Massachusetts.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Coastal Flood Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Potential for significant snow and wind early Wednesday into early
Thursday. Uncertainty remains on where the rain-snow line will
setup, thus too early to say where (inland vs the coast) exactly the
greatest risk for significant snow will occur.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

MAZ022-024-052115-
Barnstable MA-Nantucket MA-
407 PM EST Sun Mar 4 2018

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM
EST MONDAY...
...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TO 6 PM EST MONDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeastern Massachusetts.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Coastal Flood Advisory.
   Wind Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.

Potential for significant snow and wind early Wednesday into early
Thursday. Uncertainty remains on where the rain-snow line will
setup, thus too early to say where (inland vs the coast) exactly the
greatest risk for significant snow will occur.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

MAZ023-052115-
Dukes MA-
407 PM EST Sun Mar 4 2018

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TO 6 PM EST MONDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeastern Massachusetts.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.

Potential for significant snow and wind early Wednesday into early
Thursday. Uncertainty remains on where the rain-snow line will
setup, thus too early to say where (inland vs the coast) exactly the
greatest risk for significant snow will occur.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

ANZ234-052115-
Buzzards Bay-
407 PM EST Sun Mar 4 2018

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 9 PM EST MONDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Massachusetts coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Warning.

Potential for significant wind early Wednesday into early Thursday
with a second coastal storm.  Northeasterly Gales are likely.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

ANZ231-233-235-237-251-256-052115-
Cape Cod Bay-Vineyard Sound-Rhode Island Sound-Block Island Sound-
Massachusetts Bay and Ipswich Bay-
Coastal Waters from Montauk NY to Marthas Vineyard extending out to
20 nm South of Block Island-
407 PM EST Sun Mar 4 2018

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 9 PM EST MONDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Massachusetts coastal waters
and Rhode Island coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Warning.

Potential for significant wind early Wednesday into early Thursday
with a second coastal storm.  Northeasterly Gales are likely.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

ANZ254-255-052115-
Coastal waters from Provincetown MA to Chatham MA to Nantucket MA
out 20 nm-
Coastal Waters extending out to 25 nm South of Marthas Vineyard and
Nantucket-
407 PM EST Sun Mar 4 2018

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
TUESDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Massachusetts coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Warning.
Potential for significant wind early Wednesday into early Thursday
with a second coastal storm.  Northeasterly Gales are likely.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

ANZ250-052115-
Coastal waters east of Ipswich Bay and the Stellwagen Bank National
Marine Sanctuary-
407 PM EST Sun Mar 4 2018

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Massachusetts coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Warning.

Potential for significant wind early Wednesday into early Thursday
with a second coastal storm.  Northeasterly Gales are likely.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

ANZ230-236-052115-
Boston Harbor-Narragansett Bay-
407 PM EST Sun Mar 4 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Massachusetts coastal waters
and Rhode Island coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Potential for significant wind early Wednesday into early Thursday
with a second coastal storm. Northeasterly Gales are possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

ANZ232-052115-
Nantucket Sound-
407 PM EST Sun Mar 4 2018

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 PM EST
MONDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Massachusetts coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Warning.

Potential for significant wind early Wednesday into early Thursday
with a second coastal storm.  Northeasterly Gales are likely.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

For the latest updates, please visit our webpage at:
www.weather.gov/boston

You can follow us on Facebook at
www.facebook.com/NWSBoston

You can follow us on Twitter at
@NWSBoston

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Taunton MA
1022 PM EST Sun Mar 4 2018

CTZ004-MAZ004>007-012>023-026-RIZ001>007-050800-
Windham CT-Northern Worcester MA-Central Middlesex MA-
Western Essex MA-Eastern Essex MA-Southern Worcester MA-
Western Norfolk MA-Southeast Middlesex MA-Suffolk MA-
Eastern Norfolk MA-Northern Bristol MA-Western Plymouth MA-
Eastern Plymouth MA-Southern Bristol MA-Southern Plymouth MA-
Barnstable MA-Dukes MA-Northern Middlesex MA-
Northwest Providence RI-Southeast Providence RI-Western Kent RI-
Eastern Kent RI-Bristol RI-Washington RI-Newport RI-
Including the cities of Putnam, Willimantic, Barre, Fitchburg,
Framingham, Lowell, Lawrence, Gloucester, Milford, Worcester,
Foxborough, Norwood, Cambridge, Boston, Quincy, Taunton,
Brockton, Plymouth, Fall River, New Bedford, Mattapoisett,
Chatham, Falmouth, Provincetown, Vineyard Haven, Ayer, Foster,
Smithfield, Providence, Coventry, West Greenwich, East Greenwich,
Warwick, West Warwick, Bristol, Narragansett, Westerly,
and Newport
1022 PM EST Sun Mar 4 2018

...A coating to 2 inches of snow expected overnight with localized
3 inch amounts possible across southeast MA mainly on grassy
surfaces...

Scattered snow showers are expected this evening which may be in
the form of rain at the onset. The steady snow is generally
expected to fall between midnight and 6 am and over by 7 or 8 am
Monday. Snow accumulations of a coating to 2 inches are
possible...but localized 3 inch amounts are possible across
southeast Massachusetts onto the upper Cape.

Given temperatures near freezing many roadways will be wet or
perhaps a bit slushy with the bulk of the accumulations on grassy
surfaces. Nonetheless...if the snow comes down hard enough roadways
could become briefly snow covered and slippery impacting the
first part of the morning commute. Any snow that is able to
accumulate on the roadways will melt by mid morning.