Special Weather Statement, NWS Birmingham, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1235 PM CDT Thu Jun 28 2018

.UPDATE...
Aviation and Fire Weather Update.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
Through Tonight.

Watching a MCS moving south southeastward through the Tennessee
Valley this morning, that has prompted a Severe Thunderstorm
Watch and many warnings so far. Have noted strong winds just off
at low levels per HTX radar - 60+ kts at 2400ft. The airmass over
Central Alabama is characterized by high cape (around 5000 J/kg
per the latest surface analysis) and increasing shear with the
MCS. Mid level lapse rates are supportive of continued
thunderstorm growth as the MCS advances southward this afternoon
and early evening. The limiting factor to the west and southwest
is slightly warmer temperatures aloft and height mid level
heights.

Latest radar trends show strong to severe thunderstorms moving
into northeast Central Alabama around 115-130 PM CDT. Will need
to watch the southward progression of the line and whether storms
begin to develop westward. It might become necessary to add
counties along the I-65 corridor to the Severe Thunderstorm Watch,
including the Birmingham metro. Along those same lines, as storms
progress southward near and along the Georgia state line, will
consider adding to the southern extent of the watch. Frequent
lightning and torrential rainfall are also expected with these
thunderstorms.

Hi-res guidance shows this system moving out of southeast Central
Alabama this evening, by 7-8PM. Another weak impulse and boundary
interactions might continue storm development overnight across the
south and will leave low pops in for now.

14

.LONG TERM...
Friday through Wednesday.

A relatively wet pattern may continue during the extended part of
the forecast period. An upper-level ridge centered to our north
will open the door for easterly flow and embedded disturbances to
move westward across the Deep South for Friday through Monday.
This should enhance rain chances, and POPs generally range from 40
to 60 percent each afternoon with the highest chances focused
across the southern half of the CWA. With no real sign of a
suppressive ridge developing over the region, this scenario could
continue beyond Monday as well.

87/Grantham

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF Discussion.

A line of strong to severe storms is pushing SSE into east Central
Alabama, and could produce damaging winds. Have timed out the
arrival of thunderstorms at ANB and ASN based on current radar
trends. Torrential rainfall and frequent lightning are also
expected. The westward extent of the severe storms is more
uncertain, but do expect thunderstorm at all other northern
terminals before 29/00Z. Hi-res guidance shows this system pushing
through MGM and TOI after 28/22Z.  Will likely need updates to
adjust timing of strongest storms through the afternoon.

Guidance is inconsistent regarding the potential for additional
showers and storms overnight as boundaries continue to interact.
Most likely the airmass will not be conducive for overnight activity
behind the exiting storms this afternoon. Patchy fog is possible,
depending on where heaviest rainfall occurs and how quickly cloud
cover clears.

14

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Strong to severe storms are expected this afternoon and evening,
moving southward through much of the area. It is possible additional
convection might redevelop overnight, but confidence is low. As
skies clear and winds become calm, patchy fog is possible, but
locations and extent are uncertain at this time.

Very warm temperatures with triple digit heat indices will be the
biggest issue for crews. With humidity values remaining high, Heat
Advisories might be necessary each day through the weekend. There
are no fire weather concerns at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     92  71  91  72  91 /  80  30  40  10  40
Anniston    90  72  92  73  91 /  80  30  40  20  40
Birmingham  93  74  92  74  93 /  80  30  40  20  40
Tuscaloosa  95  76  94  75  93 /  40  30  50  20  50
Calera      91  73  91  73  91 /  70  40  50  20  50
Auburn      89  74  90  74  89 /  70  50  40  30  60
Montgomery  93  76  92  75  92 /  60  60  50  30  60
Troy        92  75  92  74  91 /  60  60  50  30  60

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for the following
counties: Autauga...Barbour...Bibb...Bullock...Chilton...Coosa...
Dallas...Elmore...Fayette...Greene...Hale...Jefferson...Lamar...
Lowndes...Macon...Marengo...Marion...Montgomery...Perry...
Pickens...Pike...Russell...Shelby...Sumter...Tuscaloosa...
Walker...Winston.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
447 AM CDT Thu Jun 28 2018

ALZ011>015-017>050-291300-
Marion-Lamar-Fayette-Winston-Walker-Blount-Etowah-Calhoun-Cherokee-
Cleburne-Pickens-Tuscaloosa-Jefferson-Shelby-St. Clair-Talladega-
Clay-Randolph-Sumter-Greene-Hale-Perry-Bibb-Chilton-Coosa-Tallapoosa-
Chambers-Marengo-Dallas-Autauga-Lowndes-Elmore-Montgomery-Macon-
Bullock-Lee-Russell-Pike-Barbour-
447 AM CDT Thu Jun 28 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the counties served by the
National Weather Service office in Birmingham.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Heat indices will may reach 105 degrees for portions of Central
Alabama this afternoon.

Strong to severe thunderstorms along with heavy rainfall, are
possible this afternoon through 10 pm, for portions of Central
Alabama. The main concern will be damaging winds up to 60 miles per
hour.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Heat indices will may reach 105 degrees for portions of Central
Alabama each afternoon Friday through Saturday. Overall coverage will
decrease each afternoon, so confidence remains low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of storm spotters and emergency management may be needed
this afternoon through 10 pm.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
502 PM CDT THU JUN 28 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0400 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 NNE AUBURN            32.63N 85.47W
06/28/2018                   LEE                AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            A TREE WAS BLOWN DOWN ON SHELTON MILL ROAD,
            AT SHELTON MILL TOWN HOMES.

&&

JW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
506 PM CDT THU JUN 28 2018

ALZ022-030>033-039-040-282230-
Greene AL-Hale AL-Pickens AL-Sumter AL-Marengo AL-Dallas AL-Perry AL-
506 PM CDT THU JUN 28 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PICKENS...NORTHEASTERN MARENGO...
SOUTHWESTERN PERRY...GREENE...SOUTHWESTERN HALE...SOUTHWESTERN DALLAS
AND CENTRAL SUMTER COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM CDT...

At 505 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Reform to Sawyerville to near Vaiden.
Movement was south at 40 mph.

Pea size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with these
storms.

Locations impacted include...
Demopolis, Eutaw, Greensboro, Aliceville, Linden, Uniontown,
Carrollton, Pickensville, Jefferson, Forkland, Thomaston, Akron,
Boligee, Union, Gainesville, Epes, Newbern, Faunsdale, Dayton and
McMullen.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3312 8833 3346 8812 3280 8769 3250 8721
      3216 8730 3220 8732 3220 8736 3224 8739
      3224 8741 3227 8744 3227 8750 3225 8752
      3213 8752 3213 8759 3232 8790 3238 8795
      3301 8834
TIME...MOT...LOC 2205Z 019DEG 37KT 3335 8811 3276 8772 3250 8731

05

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
510 PM CDT THU JUN 28 2018

ALZ012-282245-
Lamar AL-
510 PM CDT THU JUN 28 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN LAMAR COUNTY UNTIL
545 PM CDT...

At 509 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Detroit, or near Sulligent, moving south at 15 mph.

Pea size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Vernon, Sulligent, Detroit, Beaverton, Lamar County Airport, Crews,
Bedford, Henson Springs and Pine Springs.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3406 8821 3406 8812 3402 8800 3377 8812
      3379 8824
TIME...MOT...LOC 2209Z 018DEG 15KT 3399 8813

05

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