Special Weather Statement, NWS Birmingham, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1235 PM CDT Thu Jun 28 2018

.UPDATE...
Aviation and Fire Weather Update.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
Through Tonight.

Watching a MCS moving south southeastward through the Tennessee
Valley this morning, that has prompted a Severe Thunderstorm
Watch and many warnings so far. Have noted strong winds just off
at low levels per HTX radar - 60+ kts at 2400ft. The airmass over
Central Alabama is characterized by high cape (around 5000 J/kg
per the latest surface analysis) and increasing shear with the
MCS. Mid level lapse rates are supportive of continued
thunderstorm growth as the MCS advances southward this afternoon
and early evening. The limiting factor to the west and southwest
is slightly warmer temperatures aloft and height mid level
heights.

Latest radar trends show strong to severe thunderstorms moving
into northeast Central Alabama around 115-130 PM CDT. Will need
to watch the southward progression of the line and whether storms
begin to develop westward. It might become necessary to add
counties along the I-65 corridor to the Severe Thunderstorm Watch,
including the Birmingham metro. Along those same lines, as storms
progress southward near and along the Georgia state line, will
consider adding to the southern extent of the watch. Frequent
lightning and torrential rainfall are also expected with these
thunderstorms.

Hi-res guidance shows this system moving out of southeast Central
Alabama this evening, by 7-8PM. Another weak impulse and boundary
interactions might continue storm development overnight across the
south and will leave low pops in for now.

14

.LONG TERM...
Friday through Wednesday.

A relatively wet pattern may continue during the extended part of
the forecast period. An upper-level ridge centered to our north
will open the door for easterly flow and embedded disturbances to
move westward across the Deep South for Friday through Monday.
This should enhance rain chances, and POPs generally range from 40
to 60 percent each afternoon with the highest chances focused
across the southern half of the CWA. With no real sign of a
suppressive ridge developing over the region, this scenario could
continue beyond Monday as well.

87/Grantham

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF Discussion.

A line of strong to severe storms is pushing SSE into east Central
Alabama, and could produce damaging winds. Have timed out the
arrival of thunderstorms at ANB and ASN based on current radar
trends. Torrential rainfall and frequent lightning are also
expected. The westward extent of the severe storms is more
uncertain, but do expect thunderstorm at all other northern
terminals before 29/00Z. Hi-res guidance shows this system pushing
through MGM and TOI after 28/22Z.  Will likely need updates to
adjust timing of strongest storms through the afternoon.

Guidance is inconsistent regarding the potential for additional
showers and storms overnight as boundaries continue to interact.
Most likely the airmass will not be conducive for overnight activity
behind the exiting storms this afternoon. Patchy fog is possible,
depending on where heaviest rainfall occurs and how quickly cloud
cover clears.

14

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Strong to severe storms are expected this afternoon and evening,
moving southward through much of the area. It is possible additional
convection might redevelop overnight, but confidence is low. As
skies clear and winds become calm, patchy fog is possible, but
locations and extent are uncertain at this time.

Very warm temperatures with triple digit heat indices will be the
biggest issue for crews. With humidity values remaining high, Heat
Advisories might be necessary each day through the weekend. There
are no fire weather concerns at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     92  71  91  72  91 /  80  30  40  10  40
Anniston    90  72  92  73  91 /  80  30  40  20  40
Birmingham  93  74  92  74  93 /  80  30  40  20  40
Tuscaloosa  95  76  94  75  93 /  40  30  50  20  50
Calera      91  73  91  73  91 /  70  40  50  20  50
Auburn      89  74  90  74  89 /  70  50  40  30  60
Montgomery  93  76  92  75  92 /  60  60  50  30  60
Troy        92  75  92  74  91 /  60  60  50  30  60

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for the following
counties: Autauga...Barbour...Bibb...Bullock...Chilton...Coosa...
Dallas...Elmore...Fayette...Greene...Hale...Jefferson...Lamar...
Lowndes...Macon...Marengo...Marion...Montgomery...Perry...
Pickens...Pike...Russell...Shelby...Sumter...Tuscaloosa...
Walker...Winston.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
447 AM CDT Thu Jun 28 2018

ALZ011>015-017>050-291300-
Marion-Lamar-Fayette-Winston-Walker-Blount-Etowah-Calhoun-Cherokee-
Cleburne-Pickens-Tuscaloosa-Jefferson-Shelby-St. Clair-Talladega-
Clay-Randolph-Sumter-Greene-Hale-Perry-Bibb-Chilton-Coosa-Tallapoosa-
Chambers-Marengo-Dallas-Autauga-Lowndes-Elmore-Montgomery-Macon-
Bullock-Lee-Russell-Pike-Barbour-
447 AM CDT Thu Jun 28 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the counties served by the
National Weather Service office in Birmingham.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Heat indices will may reach 105 degrees for portions of Central
Alabama this afternoon.

Strong to severe thunderstorms along with heavy rainfall, are
possible this afternoon through 10 pm, for portions of Central
Alabama. The main concern will be damaging winds up to 60 miles per
hour.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Heat indices will may reach 105 degrees for portions of Central
Alabama each afternoon Friday through Saturday. Overall coverage will
decrease each afternoon, so confidence remains low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of storm spotters and emergency management may be needed
this afternoon through 10 pm.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
352 PM CDT THU JUN 28 2018

ALZ023-032>035-040-041-282115-
Chilton AL-Hale AL-Autauga AL-Bibb AL-Dallas AL-Perry AL-
Tuscaloosa AL-
352 PM CDT THU JUN 28 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN AUTAUGA...CHILTON...
SOUTHERN TUSCALOOSA...NORTHEASTERN PERRY...NORTHEASTERN HALE...BIBB
AND NORTHEASTERN DALLAS COUNTIES UNTIL 415 PM CDT...

At 352 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 6 miles north of Deerlick Creek Campgrounds to
near Talladega National Forest to near Clanton. Movement was
southwest at 40 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Tuscaloosa, Northport, Clanton, Brent, Centreville, Jemison, Holt,
Thorsby, Brookwood, Coaling, Vance, West Blocton, Autaugaville,
Maplesville, Billingsley, Parnell, McFarland Mall, Tuscaloosa
Amphitheater, Tuscaloosa Regional Airport and Lake Wildwood.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3344 8747 3300 8698 3287 8648 3241 8662
      3266 8720 3315 8774
TIME...MOT...LOC 2052Z 030DEG 34KT 3335 8745 3296 8701 3285 8660

05

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
354 PM CDT THU JUN 28 2018

ALZ011>013-022-023-282130-
Fayette AL-Pickens AL-Tuscaloosa AL-Marion AL-Lamar AL-
354 PM CDT THU JUN 28 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN TUSCALOOSA...WESTERN
MARION...NORTHEASTERN PICKENS...FAYETTE AND LAMAR COUNTIES UNTIL 430
PM CDT...

At 354 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 6 miles north of Weston to near Deerlick Creek
Campgrounds. Movement was southwest at 35 mph.

Pea size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with these
storms.

Locations impacted include...
Northport, Hamilton, Winfield, Fayette, Vernon, Sulligent, Gordo,
Millport, Guin, Berry, Coker, Brilliant, Glen Allen, Kennedy,
Detroit, Belk, Beaverton, Gu-
Win, Samantha and Lake Lurleen State Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3432 8817 3431 8797 3343 8742 3310 8774
      3380 8824
TIME...MOT...LOC 2054Z 050DEG 33KT 3425 8800 3334 8742

05

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
358 PM CDT THU JUN 28 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0320 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 E BENT BROOK GOLF CLU 33.33N 86.95W
06/28/2018                   JEFFERSON          AL   PUBLIC

            TREES DOWN BLOCKING DICKEY SPRINGS ROAD,
            NEAR BESSEMER.

&&

JW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
404 PM CDT THU JUN 28 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0340 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 WSW LAKE VIEW         33.27N 87.16W
06/28/2018                   TUSCALOOSA         AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            LARGE TREE BLOWN DOWN ON HEPZIBAH CHURCH
            ROAD.

&&

JW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
405 PM CDT THU JUN 28 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0400 PM     TSTM WND DMG     WETUMPKA                32.55N 86.20W
06/28/2018                   ELMORE             AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES DOWN IN MULTIPLE LOCATIONS IN THE
            SOUTHERN PART OF ELMORE COUNTY.

&&

JW

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