Severe Thunderstorm Warning 25, NWS Birmingham, AL

630 
WWUS54 KBMX 040328
SVSBMX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1028 PM CDT TUE APR 3 2018

ALC057-040345-
/O.CON.KBMX.SV.W.0025.000000T0000Z-180404T0345Z/
Fayette AL-
1028 PM CDT TUE APR 3 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1045 PM CDT
FOR FAYETTE COUNTY...

At 1027 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Belk to near Glen Allen, moving east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and penny size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees. 

Locations impacted include...
Fayette, Berry, Glen Allen, Belk, Bankston, Boley Springs, Stone
Wall, Bazemore, Richard Arthur Field, Fayette County Public Lake,
Bevill State College Fayette, Hubbertville and Fowlers Crossroads.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3383 8789 3391 8775 3391 8764 3387 8763
      3387 8753 3369 8753 3369 8742 3360 8743
      3361 8763 3358 8765 3358 8767 3355 8766
      3352 8768 3354 8795 3371 8795
TIME...MOT...LOC 0327Z 282DEG 33KT 3362 8791 3387 8770 

HAIL...0.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

17/KLAWS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
647 PM CDT Tue Apr 3 2018

.UPDATE...
Aviation Discussion.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Through Tonight.

Very warm southerly flow today has pushed surface temperatures
into the lower 80s across most of Central Alabama. A strong
capping inversion has suppressed convection this afternoon with
the cumulus not showing much vertical development. A pre-frontal
line of convection has developed across western Arkansas and
north Texas. A separate area of thunderstorms over east Texas has
been expanding northeast. It is likely this cluster of storms
will eventually form a line of storms later this afternoon that
moves into northwest Alabama this evening. The air mass over west
Alabama will be untapped as the squall line moves into the area.
CAPE values across northwest Alabama will be near 1500 j/kg with
0-3Km SRH values around 350 k/kg. The northwest counties of
central Alabama have been upgraded to an enhanced risk of severe
storms, where the tornado threat will also be highest. Straight-
line winds will be the primary threat as the line accelerates
eastward. A gradual weakening of the line is expected as it
approaches the I-59 corridor, but still potent enough for isolated
wind damage. Gradient winds ahead the the squall line will be in
the 15-20 mph range with gusts to 35 mph at times.

58/rose

.LONG TERM...
Wednesday through Monday.

Behind the front, we'll notice roughly a 20 degree drop in
temperatures fairly quickly Wednesday morning as cold air advection
pushes into the area. Expect a mild day overall on Wednesday as high
pressure builds in across the area. Clear skies and calm winds
Wednesday night into Thursday will lead to effective radiational
cooling with temperatures dropping into the 30s for most of Central
AL. Counties in the north could drop near or below freezing, so will
add mention for cold weather impacts in the HWO for Thursday
morning.

Our frontal passage looks to be Friday evening into Saturday as a
cold front slides across the area, increasing our rain chances.
Moisture return ahead of the system isn't overly impressive, which
will limit the instability and any severe potential for the weekend.
Another system approaches for early next week, but models vary
substantially on timing, instability, and available moisture.
Therefore, will continue monitoring model trends to determine any
severe potential, but the significant differences between the GFS
and ECMWF lead to too low of confidence to add anything into the HWO
for early next week.

25/Owen

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF Discussion.

A potent storm system will sweep across the Central Gulf Coast
region tonight. South winds 12-22 kts with higher gusts will prevail
this evening ahead of a fast-moving squall line. Made minor changes
to adjust for arrival timing of the squall line; near a KTCL-KBHM
line by 04z, near KEET by 05z, and near KASN-KANB by 06Z. Portions
of the line will contain large hail and wind gusts in excess of 50
mph. A gradual weakening trend is expected after 06Z. Widespread
MVFR cigs expected behind the squall line, but rapid drying in the
low levels will bring clearing skies to the northern TAFS between
09z and 12z.

Winds behind the squall line become westerly, then northwesterly
just before sunrise, with sustained wind up to 12kts with higher
gusts.

14

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Scattered showers are possible this afternoon before wetting
rains will be possible for tonight into Wednesday with the
arrival of the next frontal system. Much colder weather expected
Wednesday into Thursday. There are no fire weather concerns at
this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     47  58  32  67  45 /  90  10   0   0  10
Anniston    49  59  34  68  46 /  90  20   0   0  10
Birmingham  48  60  35  70  48 /  90  10   0   0  10
Tuscaloosa  49  62  36  70  48 /  90  10   0   0  10
Calera      49  60  36  70  48 /  90  20   0   0  10
Auburn      57  62  38  69  46 /  90  40   0   0  10
Montgomery  56  65  37  72  46 /  90  30   0   0   0
Troy        59  64  37  71  45 /  80  50   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/...
None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1133 AM CDT Tue Apr 3 2018

ALZ011>015-017>050-041945-
Marion-Lamar-Fayette-Winston-Walker-Blount-Etowah-Calhoun-Cherokee-
Cleburne-Pickens-Tuscaloosa-Jefferson-Shelby-St. Clair-Talladega-
Clay-Randolph-Sumter-Greene-Hale-Perry-Bibb-Chilton-Coosa-Tallapoosa-
Chambers-Marengo-Dallas-Autauga-Lowndes-Elmore-Montgomery-Macon-
Bullock-Lee-Russell-Pike-Barbour-
1133 AM CDT Tue Apr 3 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the counties served by the
National Weather Service office in Birmingham.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Severe storms are possible tonight generally along and north of
I-85, with a higher threat for areas north of I-59. Damaging winds,
large hail, and a few brief tornadoes are possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Cold weather expected Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Areas
in the North Central Alabama could drop to near or below freezing.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of storm spotters and emergency management will likely be
needed tonight.