Severe Thunderstorm Warning 18, NWS Birmingham, AL

856 
WWUS54 KBMX 200109
SVSBMX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
809 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2018

ALC055-200145-
/O.CON.KBMX.SV.W.0018.000000T0000Z-180320T0145Z/
Etowah AL-
809 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 845 PM CDT
FOR ETOWAH COUNTY...

At 809 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Noccalula
Falls, or near Gadsden, moving east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Golf ball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail 
         damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect wind 
         damage to roofs, siding, and trees. 

Locations impacted include...
Gadsden, Rainbow City, Attalla, Hokes Bluff, Glencoe, Steele,
Altoona, Walnut Grove, Reece City, Aurora, Ballplay, Gadsden Mall,
Noccalula Falls, Neely Henry Lake, Southside, Gadsden Steam Plant,
Rockledge, Cobb City, Gadsden Water Works and Reaves.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

A tornado watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for central,
northeastern and east central Alabama.

LAT...LON 3412 8579 3399 8574 3393 8574 3395 8588
      3394 8590 3391 8590 3392 8595 3386 8600
      3385 8605 3386 8610 3390 8611 3390 8614
      3399 8620 3397 8625 3399 8628 3394 8633
      3394 8637 3399 8633 3407 8632 3415 8624
TIME...MOT...LOC 0109Z 273DEG 37KT 3405 8600 

HAIL...1.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

87/GRANTHAM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
649 PM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018

.UPDATE...
For 00Z Aviation.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Confidence has increased in the potential for explosive supercell
thunderstorm development late this afternoon into tonight
especially along and north of a line from Tuscaloosa to Calera to
Wedowee. A dangerous environment will also be in place south of
this line, but initiation of storms and storm coverage is
questionable.

Currently, surface winds have veered to the southwest across most
of the area following the passage of a warm front. Normally this
would yield lower dewpoints and overall moisture quality, but this
does not appear to be the case. Dewpoints are holding in the mid
to upper 60s upstream across MS. Moisture quality should not be an
issue as this event progresses.

This event will hinge on evolution of the surface to 850mb wind
fields in response to the approaching upper-level trough. We are
already seeing this response across the northern half of MS where
winds are south to southeast near Tupelo and Columbus. Hi-res
models appear to be getting a better handle on the mesoscale
features and are slowly trending more aggressive with surface
pressure troughing and backing of winds in the 23-03z time frame.
HRRR guidance suggests the potential for 0-1km shear to exceed
40kts. This amount of shear combined with SBCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg,
supports a risk for a few long-track tornadoes. A violent tornado
cannot be ruled out. The best chance of these enhanced ingredients
coming together for long-track tornadoes appears to be from I-65
eastward and as far south as Shelby, Talladega, Clay, and Randolph
counties.

Balloon launches are planned for 330 PM, 6 PM, and 730 PM to sample
critical changes in the low-level wind environment.

87/Grantham

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF Discussion.

Trend with this set of TAFs will be in a bit more optimistic
direction, as the higher coverage of convection thus far has
remained well to the north of central Alabama terminals. Will
maintain a VCTS for a couple of hours at most locations, although
it did push this back an hour or two from the previous forecast
(based on radar trends). Still quite a bit of uncertainty on how
far south the convection will get overnight. If radar trends over
the next couple hours show the storms eventually expanding in
area, then we can update the TAFs where necessary.

Winds will shift around to a more westerly direction overnight,
and start to increase and be more gusty after sunrise on Tuesday.
The models were giving me mixed signals on the development of
lower clouds after the rain/storm threat ends overnight. Given the
lack of clouds back to the west, I am inclined to believe the more
optimistic of the model solutions. But once the winds kick up
Tuesday, the cumulus field should start to fill in as well.

/61/

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

After some storms tonight, light showers are possible Tuesday,
before dry conditions arrive by Wednesday. RH values will be
elevated the next couple days. There are no fire weather
concerns.

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/...
None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
403 PM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018

ALZ011>015-017>050-210015-
Marion-Lamar-Fayette-Winston-Walker-Blount-Etowah-Calhoun-Cherokee-
Cleburne-Pickens-Tuscaloosa-Jefferson-Shelby-St. Clair-Talladega-
Clay-Randolph-Sumter-Greene-Hale-Perry-Bibb-Chilton-Coosa-Tallapoosa-
Chambers-Marengo-Dallas-Autauga-Lowndes-Elmore-Montgomery-Macon-
Bullock-Lee-Russell-Pike-Barbour-
403 PM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the counties served by the
National Weather Service office in Birmingham.

.DAY ONE...Outlook Through Tonight.

Severe storms are expected late this afternoon into tonight These
storms will move from west to east, entering northwest Central
Alabama as early as 4 PM and exiting southeast Central Alabama as
late as 2 AM Tuesday morning. The greatest potential for strong
tornadoes is north of a line from Tuscaloosa to Calera to Wedowee.
However, tornadoes, very large large hail, and damaging winds are
possible area wide.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Cooler air moving in behind the system will result in the potential
for lows at or below freezing across parts of north central Alabama
Wednesday night into Thursday morning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of storm spotters and emergency management will be
needed through early Tuesday morning.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
410 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0359 PM     HAIL             FOSTERS CROSSROADS      33.42N 85.56W
03/19/2018  E1.50 INCH       RANDOLPH           AL   PUBLIC

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
645 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0630 PM     HAIL             1 NE DOUBLE SPRINGS     34.15N 87.40W
03/19/2018  E0.50 INCH       WINSTON            AL   PUBLIC

            A FEW REPORTS OF DIME SIZE HAIL IN AND
            AROUND DOUBLE SPRINGS.

&&

MAL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
724 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0710 PM     HAIL             1 SW STRAWBERRY         34.24N 86.50W
03/19/2018  E1.00 INCH       BLOUNT             AL   PUBLIC

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL REPORTED IN FAR NORTHERN
            BLOUNT COUNTY.

&&

MAL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
726 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0653 PM     HAIL             2 SSE HALEYVILLE        34.22N 87.60W
03/19/2018  E1.00 INCH       WINSTON            AL   PUBLIC

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL WAS REPORTED IN
            HALEYVILLE.

&&

MAL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
727 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0726 PM     HAIL             2 N BLOUNTSVILLE        34.11N 86.58W
03/19/2018  E1.75 INCH       BLOUNT             AL   PUBLIC

            GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL ON THE NORTH SIDE OF
            BLOUNTSVILLE.

&&

MAL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
742 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0726 PM     HAIL             2 N BLOUNTSVILLE        34.11N 86.58W
03/19/2018  E2.00 INCH       BLOUNT             AL   PUBLIC

            CORRECTS PREVIOUS HAIL REPORT FROM 2 N
            BLOUNTSVILLE. HAIL FROM PING BALL BALL TO
            EGG SIZE.

&&

MAL