River Flood Warning 18, NWS Birmingham, AL

008 
WGUS84 KBMX 160216
FLSBMX
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED 
Flood Statement 
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
916 PM CDT Sun Apr 15 2018


...The flood warning is cancelled for the Cahaba River Near Cahaba 
Heights...

.The river point crested in minor flood Monday afternoon and is 
sharply falling. The Cahaba River near Cahaba Heights is now below 
minor flood stage and will continue to fall.

This will be the last statement issued for this event.

&&

ALC007-073-117-160246-
/O.CAN.KBMX.FL.W.0018.000000T0000Z-180417T0000Z/
/CHGA1.1.ER.180415T1358Z.180415T1845Z.180415T2304Z.UU/
916 PM CDT Sun Apr 15 2018

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  The Cahaba River Near Cahaba Heights.
* AT  8:30 PM Sunday the stage was 12.6 feet. 
* Fell below flood stage at  6:04 PM Sunday.
* Flood stage is 14.0 feet. 
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to 3.4 feet by Tuesday 
  morning.
* Impact...At 17.0 feet...Flooding of some commercial property in the 
  area begins as stages continues to rise.

&&

LAT...LON 3341 8673 3337 8677 3333 8684 3335 8684
          3340 8677 3342 8674         

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
546 AM CDT Sun Apr 15 2018

.UPDATE...
For Updated Wind Advisory Start Time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Today and Tonight

The cold front is now beginning to work through the area.
Temperatures behind the front are in the 40s with 50s and 60s
ahead the front. Meanwhile, ahead of the front, moderate to heavy
rainfall will continue across the eastern half of the area. The
rain is almost done in the flash flood area and will let that
expire at 5 AM. The line of showers and storms are now moving at
enough of a pace to keep the rest of the area from receiving the
amount of rain the western half did. Most of the rain will move
out of the area by Noon as the upper low begins to swing through.
This will help aide in the increase of winds and could generate a
few light showers or drizzle across the north and east. Will go
ahead and issue a wind advisory through 3Z for portions of the
area in response to the increased winds. Winds will calm down
some by 10pm but will stay up to around 7 to 10 mph overnight as
the cold air filters into the region. Temperatures tonight will
fall into the middle 30s in the north and upper 30s/low 40s in the
south. Dewpoints will be in the 30s as well. With the winds
staying up tonight, we will likely not have patchy or even
widespread frost. Can not rule out protected areas dropping even
further and could see isolated pockets of frost but not enough to
issue any advisory at this time.

16

.LONG TERM...
Monday through Sunday

High pressure will build Monday and remain through Tuesday night.
Lows on Tuesday morning will be chilly as well with 30s and 40s
possible. Will need to monitor this morning for potential frost as
winds will be calmer, but too early to issue any advisories here.

By Wednesday afternoon a cold front will begin to enter the area.
There should be just enough return to allow for some isolated to
scattered showers along and ahead of the front, but overall the
front will be moisture starved so amounts will be minimal at best.
Will stick with 20 to 30 PoPs for the front. High pressure then
builds back into the area for Thursday through Saturday. Our next
weather system should arrive sometime Saturday night into Sunday.
Models continue to flip flop on the strength of this system as
they have a hard time determining the depth of the cold air and
impact of the trough over the area. Would expect a few more days
of uncertainty until they begin to hopefully have a better
agreement or at least run to run consistency.

16

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF Discussion.

Generally MVFR/IFR cigs behind the rain as it moves out. Some
improvement is not expected after 15Z. Main concern after 18Z
will be the strong winds as the main upper low moves through.
Winds reduce some to generally 8 to 10 kts after 3Z.

16

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Decreasing rain shower coverage during the morning, then windy in
the afternoon and evening hours. Drier Monday and Tuesday,
although windy on Monday as well. Fog should not be an issue on
Monday and Tuesday. There are no fire weather concerns at this
time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     56  35  58  38  74 /  70  10   0   0   0
Anniston    58  35  59  39  74 /  80  10   0   0   0
Birmingham  57  39  61  42  77 /  40   0   0   0   0
Tuscaloosa  57  38  63  42  77 /  10   0   0   0   0
Calera      58  38  61  42  75 /  40   0   0   0   0
Auburn      61  39  60  42  73 / 100   0   0   0   0
Montgomery  61  39  64  43  77 /  60   0   0   0   0
Troy        62  40  64  43  76 /  80   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/...
Wind Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for the following
counties: Autauga...Barbour...Blount...Bullock...Calhoun...
Chambers...Cherokee...Chilton...Clay...Cleburne...Coosa...
Elmore...Etowah...Jefferson...Lee...Macon...Montgomery...Pike...
Randolph...Russell...Shelby...St. Clair...Talladega...Tallapoosa.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
545 AM CDT Sun Apr 15 2018

ALZ011>015-017>050-161345-
Marion-Lamar-Fayette-Winston-Walker-Blount-Etowah-Calhoun-Cherokee-
Cleburne-Pickens-Tuscaloosa-Jefferson-Shelby-St. Clair-Talladega-
Clay-Randolph-Sumter-Greene-Hale-Perry-Bibb-Chilton-Coosa-Tallapoosa-
Chambers-Marengo-Dallas-Autauga-Lowndes-Elmore-Montgomery-Macon-
Bullock-Lee-Russell-Pike-Barbour-
545 AM CDT Sun Apr 15 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the counties served by the
National Weather Service office in Birmingham.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Winds will be brisk through tonight as an upper level low swings
through. Winds of 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph can be
expected this afternoon through 10 pm.

Due to heavy rainfall across the area, minor river flooding is
expected in the Tombigbee and Sucarnoochee River basins. Please
refer to river flood statements for the latest information.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Due to heavy rainfall, minor river flooding is expected through
Wednesday in the Tombigbee and Sucarnoochee River basins.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of storm spotters and emergency management is not
expected
at this time.