Alert archive / North Dakota / Special Weather Statements in 2018

Special Weather Statement, NWS Bismarck, ND

May 31, 2018McKenzie County, North Dakota

NWS Bismarck, ND issued this special weather statement at May 31, 2018, 4:13 PM CDT for McKenzie County, North Dakota. It was in force for 47 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: May 31, 2018, 4:13 PM CDT (21:13 UTC)
Expired: May 31, 2018, 5:00 PM CDT
In force: 47 min
Issued by: NWS Bismarck, ND

County McKenzie County, ND

The radar

The Minot AFB radar (KMBX), 208 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:15 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Bismarck Municip, ND (KBIS), launched 12:00Z, 9.2 hours before the alert went out and 227 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 1005 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 22 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 37 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 38 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

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What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Bismarck, ND wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at May 31, 3:27 PM CDT, 46 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, May 31, 3:27 PM CDT, 46 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
327 PM CDT Thu May 31 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 227 PM CDT Thu May 31 2018

Main forecast concern will be severe storms.

We continue to destabilize across western North Dakota this
afternoon. General showers and thunderstorm continue over
northeast Montana into far north west ND. Scattered thunderstorms
have recently developed near Dickinson and are expected to lift
northeast.

Cams continue to point at another round of thunderstorms
developing along the MT border later this afternoon. Increasing
bulk shear and strong lapse rates point to an increasing threat of
large hail and damaging winds. A tornado threat also remains,
especially along the stalled boundary from around Beach northeast
toward Minot.

Another round of thunderstorms is also possible late this evening
into the overnight hours as the low level jet increases across
the region.

A more significant storm threat is possible on Friday as the
shortwave trough moves through the area. Very large hail and
damaging winds in excess of 70 mph are possible again. HREF
updraft helicity to 150 m2/s2 are pegged over south central ND
around 00 UTC Saturday. Although there could be a quick transition
to a MCS, at least initially there could be a threat for a
tornado with any discrete cells before they transition. Convection
should push into eastern ND by late evening.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 227 PM CDT Thu May 31 2018

After thunderstorms exit the area cooler and drier air filters
into the region. Could be an isolated thunderstorm Saturday and
breezy to windy conditions. Otherwise no significant weather into
early next week when we enter into another active pattern with
systems moving through a zonal to southwest flow every 36 to 48
hours.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 227 PM CDT Thu May 31 2018

Thunderstorms and low VFR/possibly MVFR ceilings are the aviation
hazard for the 18Z TAF period. Thunderstorms in the west will
continue developing through the afternoon and push eastward through
the evening hours. Some storms in the west and in north central
areas may become severe with damaging winds and large hail. A few
tornadoes may be possible. Areas with thunderstorms should expect
gusty and erratic winds, along with low VFR/MVFR ceilings.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...TWH

Hazardous weather outlook, May 31, 3:42 PM CDT, 31 minutes before

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
342 PM CDT Thu May 31 2018

NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051-012045-
Divide-Burke-Renville-Bottineau-Rolette-Williams-Mountrail-Ward-
McHenry-Pierce-McKenzie-Dunn-Mercer-Oliver-McLean-Sheridan-Wells-
Foster-Golden Valley-Billings-Stark-Morton-Burleigh-Kidder-
Stutsman-Slope-Hettinger-Grant-Bowman-Adams-Sioux-Emmons-Logan-
La Moure-McIntosh-Dickey-
342 PM CDT Thu May 31 2018 /242 PM MDT Thu May 31 2018/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
North Dakota, northwest North Dakota, south central North Dakota,
southeast North Dakota, and southwest North Dakota.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Severe thunderstorms are expected across western North Dakota
this afternoon, from Bowman through Watford City, Killdeer, and
New Town. These storms may form into one or two lines as they
enter central North Dakota late afternoon and this evening. The
primary threats are large hail to around two inches in diameter,
damaging wind gusts in excess of 70 mph, possibly a few tornadoes,
and dangerous lightning. The greatest threat is this afternoon
across western North Dakota.

Additional thunderstorms, possibly strong to severe, may move
across western and central North Dakota late tonight from Montana.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

For Friday, a potentially significant severe weather event is
forecast, especially across central North Dakota. Severe thunderstorms
may develop between US Highway 83 and 85 by early Friday
afternoon, and quickly form into a squall line as they progress
east through the remainder of the afternoon and into the evening.
Threats are still a bit uncertain, and depend on how fast
individual storms form into a line. However, there is the
potential for very large hail in the afternoon. The threat may
quickly change to predominately wind with a squall line with
potential gusts over 70 mph. A few tornadoes are also possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters activation is likely today through Friday across most of
western and central North Dakota.

In the hours before

Special weather statement, May 31, 2:08 PM CDT, 2 hours 5 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
108 PM MDT THU MAY 31 2018

NDZ018-033-311945-
Stark ND-Dunn ND-
108 PM MDT THU MAY 31 2018

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN DUNN AND
NORTH CENTRAL STARK COUNTIES UNTIL 145 PM MDT...

At 107 PM MDT, strong thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Manning to 5 miles northwest of Gladstone.
Movement was northeast at 30 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts to 50 mph will be possible with these
storms.

Locations impacted include...
Halliday, Dunn Center, Manning, Marshall and Hirschville.

Very heavy rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4754 10230 4703 10217 4688 10272 4725 10278
TIME...MOT...LOC 1907Z 232DEG 26KT 4722 10270 4692 10265

HAMILTON

Local storm report, May 31, 3:02 PM CDT, 1 hour 11 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
302 PM CDT THU MAY 31 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0300 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 NW MARSHALL           47.17N 102.38W
05/31/2018  E60 MPH          DUNN               ND   CO-OP OBSERVER

            STRONG WINDS AND HAIL....LARGEST HAIL STONES
            NICKELS.

&&

Local storm report, May 31, 3:33 PM CDT, 40 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
333 PM CDT THU MAY 31 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0243 PM     TORNADO          4 NW HIRSCHVILLE        47.11N 102.62W
05/31/2018                   DUNN               ND   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

Special weather statement, May 31, 4:13 PM CDT, 0 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
413 PM CDT THU MAY 31 2018

NDZ017-312200-
McKenzie ND-
413 PM CDT THU MAY 31 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL MCKENZIE COUNTY UNTIL
500 PM CDT/400 PM MDT/...

At 413 PM CDT/313 PM MDT/, a strong thunderstorm was located 10 miles
west of Theodore Roosevelt National Park North Unit, or 18 miles
southwest of Watford City, moving northeast at 35 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Watford City, Arnegard and Theodore Roosevelt National Park North
Unit.

Very heavy rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT/900
PM MDT/ for northwestern North Dakota.

LAT...LON 4747 10355 4758 10366 4784 10347 4778 10318
      4764 10310
TIME...MOT...LOC 2113Z 226DEG 31KT 4758 10349

HAMILTON

The office that day

Everything else NWS Bismarck, ND issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 30, 9:27 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	BIS	Divide	48 min
May 30, 10:02 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Divide, Williams	58 min
May 30, 10:48 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	BIS	Burke	27 min
May 30, 11:07 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	BIS	Williams	38 min
May 30, 11:28 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	BIS	Renville	32 min
May 31, 12:26 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	BIS	McKenzie	49 min
May 31, 1:58 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	BIS	McKenzie	47 min
May 31, 2:34 AM CDT	Dense Fog Advisory	BIS	Burleigh, Emmons, Foster, Kidder, Logan, McHenry and 8 more	8 hr
May 31, 2:47 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	BIS	McKenzie	43 min
May 31, 3:00 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	McKenzie	41 min
May 31, 2:08 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	BIS	Dunn	37 min
May 31, 2:41 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Dunn, Stark	64 min
May 31, 2:45 PM CDT	Tornado Warning Tornado observed	BIS	Dunn	30 min
May 31, 3:13 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	BIS	Dunn, Mercer	32 min
May 31, 3:28 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Billings, Dunn, Stark	47 min
May 31, 3:47 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	BIS	Mercer, Oliver	28 min
May 31, 4:12 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Dunn, Stark	48 min
May 31, 4:17 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Mercer, Oliver	58 min
May 31, 4:40 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Hettinger, Slope, Stark	65 min
May 31, 5:23 PM CDT	Tornado Warning Tornado observed	BIS	Morton, Stark	22 min
May 31, 5:29 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Dunn, Mercer, Morton, Stark	46 min
May 31, 5:41 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Hettinger, Slope, Stark	64 min
May 31, 5:41 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	BIS	Dunn, Mercer, Stark	34 min
May 31, 6:19 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	BIS	Oliver	41 min
May 31, 6:28 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Morton, Oliver	62 min
May 31, 6:43 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Grant, Hettinger, Morton, Stark	62 min

Nearby

Special Weather Statements in North Dakota, 2018 Every special weather statement in 2018

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.