Severe Thunderstorm Warning 27, NWS Bismarck, ND

338 
WWUS53 KBIS 312042
SVSBIS

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
242 PM MDT THU MAY 31 2018

NDC007-312051-
/O.CAN.KBIS.SV.W.0027.000000T0000Z-180531T2115Z/
Billings ND-
242 PM MDT THU MAY 31 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN BILLINGS COUNTY
IS CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out of 
the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled for 
Billings County.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM MDT for
southwestern North Dakota.

LAT...LON 4698 10307 4698 10303 4706 10304 4715 10300
      4695 10257 4676 10302 4683 10314
TIME...MOT...LOC 2041Z 216DEG 28KT 4690 10302 

$$

NDC025-089-312115-
/O.CON.KBIS.SV.W.0027.000000T0000Z-180531T2115Z/
Dunn ND-Stark ND-
242 PM MDT THU MAY 31 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 315 PM MDT
FOR SOUTHWESTERN DUNN AND NORTHWESTERN STARK COUNTIES...

At 241 PM MDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over South Heart, or
11 miles west of Dickinson, moving northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. This storm shows 
         signs of rotation, and a tornado is possible.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Dickinson, South Heart and New Hradec. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4698 10307 4698 10303 4706 10304 4715 10300
      4695 10257 4676 10302 4683 10314
TIME...MOT...LOC 2041Z 216DEG 28KT 4690 10302 

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

VINING

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
327 PM CDT Thu May 31 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 227 PM CDT Thu May 31 2018

Main forecast concern will be severe storms.

We continue to destabilize across western North Dakota this
afternoon. General showers and thunderstorm continue over
northeast Montana into far north west ND. Scattered thunderstorms
have recently developed near Dickinson and are expected to lift
northeast.

Cams continue to point at another round of thunderstorms
developing along the MT border later this afternoon. Increasing
bulk shear and strong lapse rates point to an increasing threat of
large hail and damaging winds. A tornado threat also remains,
especially along the stalled boundary from around Beach northeast
toward Minot.

Another round of thunderstorms is also possible late this evening
into the overnight hours as the low level jet increases across
the region.

A more significant storm threat is possible on Friday as the
shortwave trough moves through the area. Very large hail and
damaging winds in excess of 70 mph are possible again. HREF
updraft helicity to 150 m2/s2 are pegged over south central ND
around 00 UTC Saturday. Although there could be a quick transition
to a MCS, at least initially there could be a threat for a
tornado with any discrete cells before they transition. Convection
should push into eastern ND by late evening.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 227 PM CDT Thu May 31 2018

After thunderstorms exit the area cooler and drier air filters
into the region. Could be an isolated thunderstorm Saturday and
breezy to windy conditions. Otherwise no significant weather into
early next week when we enter into another active pattern with
systems moving through a zonal to southwest flow every 36 to 48
hours.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 227 PM CDT Thu May 31 2018

Thunderstorms and low VFR/possibly MVFR ceilings are the aviation
hazard for the 18Z TAF period. Thunderstorms in the west will
continue developing through the afternoon and push eastward through
the evening hours. Some storms in the west and in north central
areas may become severe with damaging winds and large hail. A few
tornadoes may be possible. Areas with thunderstorms should expect
gusty and erratic winds, along with low VFR/MVFR ceilings.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...TWH

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1235 PM CDT Thu May 31 2018

NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051-011745-
Divide-Burke-Renville-Bottineau-Rolette-Williams-Mountrail-Ward-
McHenry-Pierce-McKenzie-Dunn-Mercer-Oliver-McLean-Sheridan-Wells-
Foster-Golden Valley-Billings-Stark-Morton-Burleigh-Kidder-
Stutsman-Slope-Hettinger-Grant-Bowman-Adams-Sioux-Emmons-Logan-
La Moure-McIntosh-Dickey-
1235 PM CDT Thu May 31 2018 /1135 AM MDT Thu May 31 2018/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
North Dakota, northwest North Dakota, south central North Dakota,
southeast North Dakota, and southwest North Dakota.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

severe thunderstorms are expected to develop across western North
Dakota this afternoon, potentially between 1 and 3 PM MDT, from
Bowman through Watford City, Killdeer, and New Town. These storms
may form into one or two lines as they enter central North Dakota
this evening. The primary threats are large hail to around two
inches in diameter, damaging wind gusts in excess of 70 mph,
possibly a few tornadoes, and dangerous lightning. The greatest
threat is this afternoon across western North Dakota.

Additional thunderstorms, possibly strong to severe, may move
across western and central North Dakota late tonight from Montana.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

For Friday, a potentially significant severe weather event is
forecast, especially across central North Dakota. Severe thunderstorms
may develop between US Highway 83 and 85 by early Friday
afternoon, and quickly form into a squall line as they progress
east through the remainder of the afternoon and into the evening.
Threats are still a bit uncertain, and depend on how fast
individual storms form into a line. However, there is the
potential for very large hail in the afternoon. The threat may
quickly change to predominately wind with a squall line with
potential gusts over 70 mph. A few tornadoes are also possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters activation is likely today through Friday across most of
western and central North Dakota.

TWH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
108 PM MDT THU MAY 31 2018

NDZ018-033-311945-
Stark ND-Dunn ND-
108 PM MDT THU MAY 31 2018

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN DUNN AND
NORTH CENTRAL STARK COUNTIES UNTIL 145 PM MDT...

At 107 PM MDT, strong thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Manning to 5 miles northwest of Gladstone.
Movement was northeast at 30 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts to 50 mph will be possible with these
storms.

Locations impacted include...
Halliday, Dunn Center, Manning, Marshall and Hirschville.

Very heavy rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4754 10230 4703 10217 4688 10272 4725 10278
TIME...MOT...LOC 1907Z 232DEG 26KT 4722 10270 4692 10265

HAMILTON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
302 PM CDT THU MAY 31 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0300 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 NW MARSHALL           47.17N 102.38W
05/31/2018  E60 MPH          DUNN               ND   CO-OP OBSERVER

            STRONG WINDS AND HAIL....LARGEST HAIL STONES
            NICKELS.

&&