Special Weather Statement, NWS Bismarck, ND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
147 AM CDT Sun May 27 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 146 AM CDT Sun May 27 2018

Update to extend severe thunderstorm watch until 4 am CDT/3am
MDT.

UPDATE Issued at 1208 AM CDT Sun May 27 2018

Line of thunderstorms now moving into northwest and west central
North Dakota. Current forecast trends well with this line. Expect
the line to progress southeastward with the into the better low
level jet and moist advection now in southwest North Dakota.

UPDATE
Issued at 1021 PM CDT Sat May 26 2018

POPs were again scaled back a bit as there has been little
development east of the main convection across eastern Montana
thus far. High res models though continue to advertise development
into western ND 03-05Z. Severe Thunderstorm Watch 122 continues.

UPDATE
Issued at 836 PM CDT Sat May 26 2018

Thunderstorm activity remains over eastern Montana, and appears to
be 1-2 hours yet before far western ND will see any of this
activity based on latest high res model output. Thus delayed
bringing convection across the MT/ND border until closer to
03-04Z. Latest HRRR and other high res models also continue to
develop convection across northern SD and into my south central
and perhaps my southeast after 05Z, as the low level jet develops
from the central high plains north-northeast across
western/central SD into my the southern half of ND.

UPDATE
Issued at 704 PM CDT Sat May 26 2018

SPC went with a severe t-storm watch for most of western North
Dakota now through early Sunday morning. Drier air across
northwestern ND kept the watch south of the Missouri River, which
high res CAMs support. The question is then what materializes
later this evening as the area of storms move into central ND.
There is some potential for an MCS/linear line developing and
turning southeast, impacting south central ND later this evening
and overnight as a strong low level jet develops across the
central Dakotas. A possible eastward expansion of the watch is
thus possible and will be monitored over the next several hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 214 PM CDT Sat May 26 2018

Main highlight is the transition from dry conditions this
afternoon to an increasing threat for showers/thunderstorms
overnight. Severe weather with large hail and damaging winds
remains possible favoring western North Dakota tonight.

Mid/upper level ridge will shift from western ND this afternoon
into eastern ND by 12z Sunday. Per water vapor loop, an upper
level low circulating over north central Nevada will slowly
translate north and east and into North Dakota Tuesday/Tuesday
night. Several shortwaves will eject out from this main low until
early next week. A couple shortwaves tonight traversing from south
central Montana into western North Dakota will result in the
development of showers/thunderstorms. CAM's show discrete cells
developing in eastern Montana this evening (00z-03z), from Miles
City to Glasgow, gradually morphing into a larger area after 03z.
There appears to be a broken line of thunderstorms embedded within
the main area that will enter western ND between 03z-06z Sunday.
SPC continues with a slight risk for severe thunderstorms with
large hail and damaging winds, especially western North Dakota.
Further expansion and strength of the convection after midnight
will be tied to the low level jet and moisture advection into
central ND. For most of tonight, cloud bases will remain high
across central ND, closer to the ridge axis; while lowering across
the far west closest to the highest instability and approaching
shortwaves and associated showers and thunderstorms mentioned
above. Thus wind and hail are the primary threats. There will be
a window of opportunity between 06z-12z Sunday that with an
increasing low level southerly jet, moisture advection and
elevated instability will lead to additional development of
showers and thunderstorms for central ND late tonight through
sunrise Sunday.

Lingering convection early morning Sunday should wane in coverage
during the day. then ramp back up Sunday evening/Sunday night,
with the approach of the next mid level low.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 214 PM CDT Sat May 26 2018

Periods of showers and thunderstorms, some severe per SPC remain
in the forecast Sunday night through Monday night. A deeper
southerly flow/moisture ensues as the main upper low from Nevada
approaches. Instability and shear remain in place for severe
weather especially central and southern North Dakota. A brief
break in the showers/thunderstorms Wednesday as the upper low
departs. Then southwesterly flow initiates again for more chances
of showers/thunderstorms Friday and Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1208 AM CDT Sun May 27 2018

Hazards to aviation include strong to severe thunderstorms moving
into northwest and west central North Dakota between 06-10Z.
This line is forecast to move east into central North Dakota and
weaken after 08-10z. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will then
end after 12z. VFR is expected at all taf sites except locally in
thunderstorms KDIK where IFR conditions may be met.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...WAA

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
653 PM CDT Sat May 26 2018

NDZ017-018-031>033-040-041-043-044-280000-
McKenzie-Dunn-Golden Valley-Billings-Stark-Slope-Hettinger-Bowman-
Adams-
653 PM CDT Sat May 26 2018 /553 PM MDT Sat May 26 2018/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northwest North
Dakota and southwest North Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

A severe thunderstorm watch is in effect until 1 AM MDT. Scattered
thunderstorms are expected to develop across eastern Montana, and
move into western North Dakota this evening. Large hail to around
golf ball size, and damaging wind gusts to 75 mph, are the main
threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Periodic thunderstorms are expected Sunday through Tuesday, with
severe weather possible. Chances for thunderstorms return Thursday
and Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will be needed. Please call in your reports, or
share your reports via social media.

NDZ001>003-009>011-019>021-034>036-042-045>047-050-280000-
Divide-Burke-Renville-Williams-Mountrail-Ward-Mercer-Oliver-
McLean-Morton-Burleigh-Kidder-Grant-Sioux-Emmons-Logan-McIntosh-
653 PM CDT Sat May 26 2018 /553 PM MDT Sat May 26 2018/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
North Dakota, northwest North Dakota, south central North Dakota,
and southeast North Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

There is a chance for strong to severe thunderstorms tonight,
with large hail to quarter size and wind gusts to 65 mph
possible. Stay tuned for updated information.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Periodic thunderstorms are expected Sunday through Tuesday, with
severe weather possible. Chances for thunderstorms return Thursday
and Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

NDZ004-005-012-013-022-023-025-037-048-051-280000-
Bottineau-Rolette-McHenry-Pierce-Sheridan-Wells-Foster-Stutsman-
La Moure-Dickey-
653 PM CDT Sat May 26 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
North Dakota, south central North Dakota, and southeast North
Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

There is a chance for thunderstorms tonight, with some
thunderstorms strong to possibly severe. Stay tuned for updated
information.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Periodic thunderstorms are expected Sunday through Tuesday, with
severe weather possible. Chances for thunderstorms return Thursday
and Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

Heinert

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
313 AM CDT SUN MAY 27 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0222 AM     TSTM WND DMG     MANDAREE                47.73N 102.68W
05/27/2018                   MCKENZIE           ND   PUBLIC

            THUNDERSTORM WIND GUST ESTIMATED AT 60 MPH
            BLEW IN A DOOR AND BROKE THE LOCK.

&&

NJH

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
403 AM CDT SUN MAY 27 2018

NDZ013-022-023-025-036-037-048-051-270945-
La Moure-Wells-Dickey-Kidder-Stutsman-Sheridan-Pierce-Foster-
403 AM CDT SUN MAY 27 2018

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT LAMOURE...WELLS...
NORTHEASTERN DICKEY...SHERIDAN...SOUTH CENTRAL PIERCE...NORTHERN
KIDDER...FOSTER AND STUTSMAN COUNTIES UNTIL 445 AM CDT...

At 401 AM CDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from, 5 miles east of McClusky, to 5 miles
south of LaMoure. Movement was northeast at 25 mph.

Winds gusts to 40 mph and penny size hail are possible with these
storms.

Locations impacted include...
Jamestown, Carrington, Harvey, Edgeley, Mcclusky, Medina, Lamoure,
Fessenden, Kensal, Marion, Ypsilanti, Adrian, Goodrich, Glenfield,
Buchanan, Spiritwood Lake, Montpelier, Verona, Hurdsfield and
Cleveland.

Brief heavy rainfall and dangerous cloud to ground lightning are
occurring with these storms. Seek a safe shelter inside a building
or vehicle.

LAT...LON 4611 9841 4659 9904 4663 9904 4726 10012
      4733 10011 4733 10024 4751 10055 4784 10048
      4790 9981 4785 9981 4785 9948 4780 9930
      4759 9927 4759 9850 4663 9844 4663 9804
      4628 9801
TIME...MOT...LOC 0901Z 237DEG 23KT 4760 10009 4641 9805

HEINERT

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
405 AM CDT SUN MAY 27 2018

NDZ020-034-035-042-270930-
Grant ND-Oliver ND-Morton ND-Burleigh ND-
405 AM CDT SUN MAY 27 2018

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT BURLEIGH...MORTON...
OLIVER AND GRANT COUNTIES UNTIL 430 AM CDT/330 AM MDT/...

At 405 AM CDT/305 AM MDT/, Doppler radar was tracking strong
thunderstorms along a line extending from 6 miles north of Wilton to
12 miles north of North Lemmon. Movement was east at 40 mph.

Wind gusts to 55 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Bismarck, Mandan, Glen Ullin, Elgin, Lincoln, New Salem, Wilton,
Center, Carson, Flasher, New Leipzig, Menoken, Wing, Almont, Regan,
Heart Butte Dam, St. Anthony, Fish Creek Dam, Shields and Lake
Harmon.

LAT...LON 4603 10184 4607 10185 4605 10199 4672 10209
      4724 10140 4729 10106 4725 10098 4716 10096
      4716 10075 4733 10075 4733 10011 4713 10011
      4664 10060 4663 10065 4661 10062 4639 10083
      4640 10091 4615 10119 4601 10155
TIME...MOT...LOC 0905Z 281DEG 37KT 4725 10080 4612 10217

EDWARDS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
410 AM CDT SUN MAY 27 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0130 AM     TSTM WND DMG     WATFORD CITY            47.80N 103.28W
05/27/2018                   MCKENZIE           ND   PUBLIC

            POSSIBLE MICROBURST CAUSED DAMAGE TO A
            BUILDING IN WATFORD CITY. UNCERTAIN OF WIND
            SPEED OR EXTENT OF THE DAMAGE AT THIS TIME.

&&

NJH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
413 AM CDT SUN MAY 27 2018

NDZ012-013-022-023-035-036-270945-
McHenry ND-Wells ND-Kidder ND-Sheridan ND-Burleigh ND-Pierce ND-
413 AM CDT SUN MAY 27 2018

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT WESTERN WELLS...
SHERIDAN...SOUTHWESTERN PIERCE...NORTHWESTERN KIDDER...NORTHEASTERN
BURLEIGH AND SOUTHEASTERN MCHENRY COUNTIES UNTIL 445 AM CDT...

At 412 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 7 miles east of Butte to 6 miles south of Cross
Ranch State Park. Movement was southeast at 40 mph.

Wind gusts to 55 mph will be possible with these storms.

These storms will remain over mainly rural areas of western Wells...
Sheridan...southwestern Pierce...northwestern Kidder...northeastern
Burleigh and southeastern McHenry Counties, including the following
locations... Sheyenne Lake, Manfred, Krueger Lake, New Johns Lake,
Selz, Wellsburg, Arena, Balfour, Hoffer Lake and Chaseley.

LAT...LON 4717 10075 4733 10075 4733 10068 4760 10067
      4768 10064 4768 10059 4782 10059 4797 10053
      4795 9981 4785 9981 4784 9956 4696 10006
TIME...MOT...LOC 0912Z 297DEG 37KT 4782 10051 4712 10095

EDWARDS