Alert archive / North Dakota / Special Weather Statements in 2018

Special Weather Statement, NWS Bismarck, ND

May 27, 2018Mercer County, North Dakota

NWS Bismarck, ND issued this special weather statement at May 27, 2018, 2:49 AM CDT for Mercer County, North Dakota. It was in force for 41 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: May 27, 2018, 2:49 AM CDT (07:49 UTC)
Expired: May 27, 2018, 3:30 AM CDT
In force: 41 min
Issued by: NWS Bismarck, ND

County Mercer County, ND

The radar

The Bismarck radar (KBIS), 103 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 07:47 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Bismarck Municip, ND (KBIS), launched 00:00Z, 7.8 hours before the alert went out and 106 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 311 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -232 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 2886 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 37 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 4 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 47 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.1

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

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What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Bismarck, ND wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at May 27, 1:47 AM CDT, 1 hour 2 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, May 27, 1:47 AM CDT, 1 hour 2 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
147 AM CDT Sun May 27 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 146 AM CDT Sun May 27 2018

Update to extend severe thunderstorm watch until 4 am CDT/3am
MDT.

UPDATE Issued at 1208 AM CDT Sun May 27 2018

Line of thunderstorms now moving into northwest and west central
North Dakota. Current forecast trends well with this line. Expect
the line to progress southeastward with the into the better low
level jet and moist advection now in southwest North Dakota.

UPDATE
Issued at 1021 PM CDT Sat May 26 2018

POPs were again scaled back a bit as there has been little
development east of the main convection across eastern Montana
thus far. High res models though continue to advertise development
into western ND 03-05Z. Severe Thunderstorm Watch 122 continues.

UPDATE
Issued at 836 PM CDT Sat May 26 2018

Thunderstorm activity remains over eastern Montana, and appears to
be 1-2 hours yet before far western ND will see any of this
activity based on latest high res model output. Thus delayed
bringing convection across the MT/ND border until closer to
03-04Z. Latest HRRR and other high res models also continue to
develop convection across northern SD and into my south central
and perhaps my southeast after 05Z, as the low level jet develops
from the central high plains north-northeast across
western/central SD into my the southern half of ND.

UPDATE
Issued at 704 PM CDT Sat May 26 2018

SPC went with a severe t-storm watch for most of western North
Dakota now through early Sunday morning. Drier air across
northwestern ND kept the watch south of the Missouri River, which
high res CAMs support. The question is then what materializes
later this evening as the area of storms move into central ND.
There is some potential for an MCS/linear line developing and
turning southeast, impacting south central ND later this evening
and overnight as a strong low level jet develops across the
central Dakotas. A possible eastward expansion of the watch is
thus possible and will be monitored over the next several hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 214 PM CDT Sat May 26 2018

Main highlight is the transition from dry conditions this
afternoon to an increasing threat for showers/thunderstorms
overnight. Severe weather with large hail and damaging winds
remains possible favoring western North Dakota tonight.

Mid/upper level ridge will shift from western ND this afternoon
into eastern ND by 12z Sunday. Per water vapor loop, an upper
level low circulating over north central Nevada will slowly
translate north and east and into North Dakota Tuesday/Tuesday
night. Several shortwaves will eject out from this main low until
early next week. A couple shortwaves tonight traversing from south
central Montana into western North Dakota will result in the
development of showers/thunderstorms. CAM's show discrete cells
developing in eastern Montana this evening (00z-03z), from Miles
City to Glasgow, gradually morphing into a larger area after 03z.
There appears to be a broken line of thunderstorms embedded within
the main area that will enter western ND between 03z-06z Sunday.
SPC continues with a slight risk for severe thunderstorms with
large hail and damaging winds, especially western North Dakota.
Further expansion and strength of the convection after midnight
will be tied to the low level jet and moisture advection into
central ND. For most of tonight, cloud bases will remain high
across central ND, closer to the ridge axis; while lowering across
the far west closest to the highest instability and approaching
shortwaves and associated showers and thunderstorms mentioned
above. Thus wind and hail are the primary threats. There will be
a window of opportunity between 06z-12z Sunday that with an
increasing low level southerly jet, moisture advection and
elevated instability will lead to additional development of
showers and thunderstorms for central ND late tonight through
sunrise Sunday.

Lingering convection early morning Sunday should wane in coverage
during the day. then ramp back up Sunday evening/Sunday night,
with the approach of the next mid level low.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 214 PM CDT Sat May 26 2018

Periods of showers and thunderstorms, some severe per SPC remain
in the forecast Sunday night through Monday night. A deeper
southerly flow/moisture ensues as the main upper low from Nevada
approaches. Instability and shear remain in place for severe
weather especially central and southern North Dakota. A brief
break in the showers/thunderstorms Wednesday as the upper low
departs. Then southwesterly flow initiates again for more chances
of showers/thunderstorms Friday and Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1208 AM CDT Sun May 27 2018

Hazards to aviation include strong to severe thunderstorms moving
into northwest and west central North Dakota between 06-10Z.
This line is forecast to move east into central North Dakota and
weaken after 08-10z. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will then
end after 12z. VFR is expected at all taf sites except locally in
thunderstorms KDIK where IFR conditions may be met.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...WAA

Hazardous weather outlook, May 26, 6:53 PM CDT, 7 hours 56 minutes before

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
653 PM CDT Sat May 26 2018

NDZ017-018-031>033-040-041-043-044-280000-
McKenzie-Dunn-Golden Valley-Billings-Stark-Slope-Hettinger-Bowman-
Adams-
653 PM CDT Sat May 26 2018 /553 PM MDT Sat May 26 2018/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northwest North
Dakota and southwest North Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

A severe thunderstorm watch is in effect until 1 AM MDT. Scattered
thunderstorms are expected to develop across eastern Montana, and
move into western North Dakota this evening. Large hail to around
golf ball size, and damaging wind gusts to 75 mph, are the main
threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Periodic thunderstorms are expected Sunday through Tuesday, with
severe weather possible. Chances for thunderstorms return Thursday
and Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will be needed. Please call in your reports, or
share your reports via social media.

NDZ001>003-009>011-019>021-034>036-042-045>047-050-280000-
Divide-Burke-Renville-Williams-Mountrail-Ward-Mercer-Oliver-
McLean-Morton-Burleigh-Kidder-Grant-Sioux-Emmons-Logan-McIntosh-
653 PM CDT Sat May 26 2018 /553 PM MDT Sat May 26 2018/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
North Dakota, northwest North Dakota, south central North Dakota,
and southeast North Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

There is a chance for strong to severe thunderstorms tonight,
with large hail to quarter size and wind gusts to 65 mph
possible. Stay tuned for updated information.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Periodic thunderstorms are expected Sunday through Tuesday, with
severe weather possible. Chances for thunderstorms return Thursday
and Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

NDZ004-005-012-013-022-023-025-037-048-051-280000-
Bottineau-Rolette-McHenry-Pierce-Sheridan-Wells-Foster-Stutsman-
La Moure-Dickey-
653 PM CDT Sat May 26 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
North Dakota, south central North Dakota, and southeast North
Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

There is a chance for thunderstorms tonight, with some
thunderstorms strong to possibly severe. Stay tuned for updated
information.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Periodic thunderstorms are expected Sunday through Tuesday, with
severe weather possible. Chances for thunderstorms return Thursday
and Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

Heinert

In the hours before

Local storm report, May 27, 1:16 AM CDT, 1 hour 33 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
116 AM CDT SUN MAY 27 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0108 AM     TSTM WND DMG     1 WNW ARNEGARD          47.81N 103.47W
05/27/2018                   MCKENZIE           ND   PUBLIC

            A BARN WAS REPORTED DAMAGED. REPORT RELAYED
            BY STATE RADIO.

&&

NJH

Local storm report, May 27, 2:02 AM CDT, 47 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
202 AM CDT SUN MAY 27 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0155 AM     TSTM WND GST     9 WNW CHARLSON          48.09N 103.07W
05/27/2018  E60 MPH          MCKENZIE           ND   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC REPORT OF A 60 MPH WIND GUST AND
            HEAVY RAIN. LOCATION WAS TOBACCO GARDEN BAY
            REC AREA.

&&

NJH

Special weather statement, May 27, 2:02 AM CDT, 47 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
102 AM MDT SUN MAY 27 2018

NDZ017-031-032-270745-
McKenzie ND-Golden Valley ND-Billings ND-
102 AM MDT SUN MAY 27 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN GOLDEN VALLEY...
NORTHWESTERN BILLINGS AND SOUTHWESTERN MCKENZIE COUNTIES UNTIL 145 AM
MDT...

At 101 AM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 12
miles southwest of Trotters, or 13 miles northeast of Wibaux, moving
northeast at 25 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Trotters.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 300 AM MDT for
southwestern and northwestern North Dakota.

LAT...LON 4736 10404 4754 10369 4721 10345 4705 10404
TIME...MOT...LOC 0701Z 246DEG 23KT 4716 10405

EDWARDS

Special weather statement, May 27, 2:11 AM CDT, 38 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
211 AM CDT SUN MAY 27 2018

NDZ035-036-046-047-270745-
Kidder ND-Logan ND-Burleigh ND-Emmons ND-
211 AM CDT SUN MAY 27 2018

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN KIDDER...
SOUTHEASTERN BURLEIGH...LOGAN AND NORTHEASTERN EMMONS COUNTIES UNTIL
245 AM CDT...

At 211 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 10 miles south of Sterling to 5 miles northwest
of Lehr. Movement was northeast at 25 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts to 50 mph will be possible with these
storms.

Locations impacted include...
Napoleon, Steele, Sterling, Lehr, Braddock, Driscoll, Burnstad,
Moffit, Kintyre and Beaver Lake State Park.

LAT...LON 4664 10045 4700 10024 4670 9945 4663 9945
      4663 9927 4654 9903 4650 9904 4628 9932
      4628 9952
TIME...MOT...LOC 0711Z 211DEG 23KT 4666 10032 4632 9944

EDWARDS

Local storm report, May 27, 2:12 AM CDT, 37 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
212 AM CDT SUN MAY 27 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0107 AM     TSTM WND DMG     7 SSE ARNEGARD          47.81N 103.47W
05/27/2018                   MCKENZIE           ND   PUBLIC

            CORRECTS PREVIOUS TSTM WND DMG REPORT FROM 1
            WNW ARNEGARD. A BARN (MOBILE HOME SIZED) WAS
            HEAVILY DAMAGED. ESTIMATED WINDS WERE 70
            MPH.

&&

NJH

Special weather statement, May 27, 2:49 AM CDT, 0 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
249 AM CDT SUN MAY 27 2018

NDZ018-019-270830-
Mercer ND-Dunn ND-
249 AM CDT SUN MAY 27 2018

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN DUNN AND
MERCER COUNTIES UNTIL 330 AM CDT/230 AM MDT/...

At 248 AM CDT/148 AM MDT/, Doppler radar was tracking strong
thunderstorms along a line extending from near Beulah Bay Recreation
Area to 8 miles southwest of Marshall. Movement was east at 50 mph.

Wind gusts to 50 mph will be possible with these storms.

Strong thunderstorms will be near...
  Beulah Bay Recreation Area around 255 AM CDT.
  Hazen Bay Recreation Area around 300 AM CDT.
  Pick City and Lake Sakakawea State Park around 310 AM CDT.

Other locations impacted by these storms include Hirschville and
Dakota Waters Recreation Area.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 400 AM CDT/300 AM
MDT/ for southwestern North Dakota.

LAT...LON 4757 10216 4757 10204 4754 10202 4749 10184
      4754 10172 4753 10159 4757 10145 4753 10137
      4746 10144 4736 10136 4729 10135 4727 10127
      4724 10126 4724 10176 4698 10177 4698 10214
      4701 10215 4701 10252 4698 10253 4703 10291
TIME...MOT...LOC 0748Z 273DEG 44KT 4753 10182 4704 10244

EDWARDS

The office that day

Everything else NWS Bismarck, ND issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 27, 12:06 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	McKenzie	54 min
May 27, 12:11 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	BIS	Williams	34 min
May 27, 12:55 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Billings, Golden Valley, McKenzie	65 min
May 27, 1:43 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Dunn, McKenzie, McLean, Mountrail	62 min
May 27, 2:02 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	BIS	Golden Valley	43 min
May 27, 2:11 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	BIS	Logan	34 min
May 27, 2:44 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	McLean, Mountrail, Ward	46 min
May 27, 2:58 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	BIS	Burleigh, Dickey, Kidder, LaMoure, Logan	47 min
May 27, 3:28 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	McHenry, McLean, Mercer, Ward	62 min
May 27, 4:03 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	BIS	Foster, LaMoure, Sheridan, Stutsman, Wells	42 min
May 27, 4:05 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	BIS	Burleigh, Grant, Morton, Oliver	25 min
May 27, 4:13 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	BIS	Sheridan	32 min
May 27, 4:45 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	BIS	Sheridan	30 min
May 27, 5:20 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Foster, Kidder, Stutsman, Wells	55 min
May 27, 7:37 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	BIS	McIntosh	53 min
May 27, 9:11 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	BIS	LaMoure	49 min
May 27, 10:26 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	BIS	Stutsman	49 min

Nearby

Special Weather Statements in North Dakota, 2018 Every special weather statement in 2018

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.