Severe Thunderstorm Warning 188, NWS Bismarck, ND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1252 AM CDT Sun Jul 8 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1252 AM CDT Sun Jul 8 2018

Main updates were to adjust PoPs and sky to account for current
trends. Severe thunderstorm rolling across Grant Co. as of 1240
AM CDT, with another strong storm just north of Richardton in
northeast Stark Co. Environment supports maintenance of these
storms through the night. Severe Thunderstorm Watch in effect from
southwest into central ND until 5 AM CDT.

UPDATE Issued at 955 PM CDT Sat Jul 7 2018

Once again, little change was made to the gridded forecast except
to blend observational trends and recent rapid-refresh guidance
into hourly elements through early Sunday morning. The latest
thinking on the severe-storm risk is contained in the mesoscale
discussion section from 934 PM CDT below.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 109 PM CDT Sat Jul 7 2018

Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected this evening
and through tonight. Uncertainty regarding timing and location of
convective initiation remains.

Current surface weather observations show a pressure trough along
a weak, slow-moving cold front located across western North
Dakota early this afternoon. This front will be the focus for
convective initiation later this evening. The latest CAM model
guidance shows rather drastic differences in the timing, location
and coverage of storm development. The 12z iteration of the
HiResW-NMM-East has convection initiation around 00z, the NAMNest
around 01z, and the HRRR around 05z.

With the 12z KBIS observed sounding showing a strong cap with
MUCIN over -350 J/kg and 850 mb temperatures around 27 degrees
Celsius, it is difficult to say when the most likely time for
convective initiation will be. There is little to no upper-level
forcing for this event, so initiation will depend almost solely on
the mesoscale forcing along the cold front.

When storms do finally form, some will likely become strong to
severe given the extreme instability with MUCAPE values in excess
of 4000 J/kg and bulk shear generally between 30 and 40 kts.
Storms will likely linger into Sunday morning across southeast
North Dakota as they slowly push eastward, with conditions drying
out across all of western and central North Dakota by the
afternoon hours.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 109 PM CDT Sat Jul 7 2018

Heat builds back up early this work week, with an overall drier
pattern expected throughout the long term forecast.

The 12z iterations of the GFS/ECMWF show nearly zonal flow across
western and central North Dakota Sunday night, with a large upper
level ridge building in on Monday and peaking on Tuesday. Slight
chances for thunderstorms exist Monday night as a weak impulse
moves along the upper level ridge. Ridging will allow
temperatures to rise well into the 80s on Monday, and into the 90s
on Tuesday across western North Dakota and parts of central North
Dakota. Despite the hot temperatures, surface dew points look to
be too low to create heat index values over 100 degrees on
Tuesday.

The latest suite of model guidance shows mainly dry weather across
western and central North Dakota Tuesday through Friday morning,
with above average temperatures. A weak impulse moves through
northern North Dakota Friday afternoon and evening, bringing with
it chances for showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1252 AM CDT Sun Jul 8 2018

Main concern is thunderstorms along a frontal boundary across
southern ND. Looks like KDIK should now be in the clear, but
current radar is starting to show new development near Belfield.
On their current track, storms will approach KBIS around 0630Z and
KJMS after 08Z. Confidence on direct impact at these sites is not
high, so kept VCTS for now. If a storm does pass over, expect MVFR
or IFR conditions. A few scattered showers may linger along the
frontal boundary into Sunday morning.

Outside of the threat for storms, VFR conditions are expected
across the area through this forecast period. Winds are forecast
to generally become north to northeast near 10 kt Sunday
afternoon.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...Hollan
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...Hollan

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
817 PM CDT Sat Jul 7 2018

NDZ011>013-018>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051-090130-
Ward-McHenry-Pierce-Dunn-Mercer-Oliver-McLean-Sheridan-Wells-
Foster-Golden Valley-Billings-Stark-Morton-Burleigh-Kidder-
Stutsman-Slope-Hettinger-Grant-Bowman-Adams-Sioux-Emmons-Logan-
La Moure-McIntosh-Dickey-
817 PM CDT Sat Jul 7 2018 /717 PM MDT Sat Jul 7 2018/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
North Dakota, south central North Dakota, southeast North Dakota,
and southwest North Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible overnight
over southwest and much of central North Dakota. Large hail to
golf ball size, damaging winds to 65 mph, and locally heavy rain
are possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Dangerous heat is possible on Tuesday.

There is a slight chance of thunderstorms Tuesday night. It is
too early to determine if these storms could be severe.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed tonight across southwest and
central North Dakota.

NDZ001>005-009-010-017-090130-
Divide-Burke-Renville-Bottineau-Rolette-Williams-Mountrail-
McKenzie-
817 PM CDT Sat Jul 7 2018 /717 PM MDT Sat Jul 7 2018/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
North Dakota and northwest North Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Dangerous heat is possible on Tuesday.

There is a slight chance of thunderstorms Tuesday night. It is
too early to determine if these storms could be severe.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

CJS

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>