Severe Thunderstorm Warning 187, NWS Bismarck, ND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1252 AM CDT Sun Jul 8 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1252 AM CDT Sun Jul 8 2018

Main updates were to adjust PoPs and sky to account for current
trends. Severe thunderstorm rolling across Grant Co. as of 1240
AM CDT, with another strong storm just north of Richardton in
northeast Stark Co. Environment supports maintenance of these
storms through the night. Severe Thunderstorm Watch in effect from
southwest into central ND until 5 AM CDT.

UPDATE Issued at 955 PM CDT Sat Jul 7 2018

Once again, little change was made to the gridded forecast except
to blend observational trends and recent rapid-refresh guidance
into hourly elements through early Sunday morning. The latest
thinking on the severe-storm risk is contained in the mesoscale
discussion section from 934 PM CDT below.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 109 PM CDT Sat Jul 7 2018

Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected this evening
and through tonight. Uncertainty regarding timing and location of
convective initiation remains.

Current surface weather observations show a pressure trough along
a weak, slow-moving cold front located across western North
Dakota early this afternoon. This front will be the focus for
convective initiation later this evening. The latest CAM model
guidance shows rather drastic differences in the timing, location
and coverage of storm development. The 12z iteration of the
HiResW-NMM-East has convection initiation around 00z, the NAMNest
around 01z, and the HRRR around 05z.

With the 12z KBIS observed sounding showing a strong cap with
MUCIN over -350 J/kg and 850 mb temperatures around 27 degrees
Celsius, it is difficult to say when the most likely time for
convective initiation will be. There is little to no upper-level
forcing for this event, so initiation will depend almost solely on
the mesoscale forcing along the cold front.

When storms do finally form, some will likely become strong to
severe given the extreme instability with MUCAPE values in excess
of 4000 J/kg and bulk shear generally between 30 and 40 kts.
Storms will likely linger into Sunday morning across southeast
North Dakota as they slowly push eastward, with conditions drying
out across all of western and central North Dakota by the
afternoon hours.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 109 PM CDT Sat Jul 7 2018

Heat builds back up early this work week, with an overall drier
pattern expected throughout the long term forecast.

The 12z iterations of the GFS/ECMWF show nearly zonal flow across
western and central North Dakota Sunday night, with a large upper
level ridge building in on Monday and peaking on Tuesday. Slight
chances for thunderstorms exist Monday night as a weak impulse
moves along the upper level ridge. Ridging will allow
temperatures to rise well into the 80s on Monday, and into the 90s
on Tuesday across western North Dakota and parts of central North
Dakota. Despite the hot temperatures, surface dew points look to
be too low to create heat index values over 100 degrees on
Tuesday.

The latest suite of model guidance shows mainly dry weather across
western and central North Dakota Tuesday through Friday morning,
with above average temperatures. A weak impulse moves through
northern North Dakota Friday afternoon and evening, bringing with
it chances for showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1252 AM CDT Sun Jul 8 2018

Main concern is thunderstorms along a frontal boundary across
southern ND. Looks like KDIK should now be in the clear, but
current radar is starting to show new development near Belfield.
On their current track, storms will approach KBIS around 0630Z and
KJMS after 08Z. Confidence on direct impact at these sites is not
high, so kept VCTS for now. If a storm does pass over, expect MVFR
or IFR conditions. A few scattered showers may linger along the
frontal boundary into Sunday morning.

Outside of the threat for storms, VFR conditions are expected
across the area through this forecast period. Winds are forecast
to generally become north to northeast near 10 kt Sunday
afternoon.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...Hollan
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...Hollan

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
817 PM CDT Sat Jul 7 2018

NDZ011>013-018>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051-090130-
Ward-McHenry-Pierce-Dunn-Mercer-Oliver-McLean-Sheridan-Wells-
Foster-Golden Valley-Billings-Stark-Morton-Burleigh-Kidder-
Stutsman-Slope-Hettinger-Grant-Bowman-Adams-Sioux-Emmons-Logan-
La Moure-McIntosh-Dickey-
817 PM CDT Sat Jul 7 2018 /717 PM MDT Sat Jul 7 2018/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
North Dakota, south central North Dakota, southeast North Dakota,
and southwest North Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible overnight
over southwest and much of central North Dakota. Large hail to
golf ball size, damaging winds to 65 mph, and locally heavy rain
are possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Dangerous heat is possible on Tuesday.

There is a slight chance of thunderstorms Tuesday night. It is
too early to determine if these storms could be severe.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed tonight across southwest and
central North Dakota.

NDZ001>005-009-010-017-090130-
Divide-Burke-Renville-Bottineau-Rolette-Williams-Mountrail-
McKenzie-
817 PM CDT Sat Jul 7 2018 /717 PM MDT Sat Jul 7 2018/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
North Dakota and northwest North Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Dangerous heat is possible on Tuesday.

There is a slight chance of thunderstorms Tuesday night. It is
too early to determine if these storms could be severe.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

CJS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1051 PM MDT SAT JUL 7 2018

NDZ033-041-080530-
Hettinger ND-Stark ND-
1051 PM MDT SAT JUL 7 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN HETTINGER AND STARK
COUNTIES UNTIL 1130 PM MDT...

At 1050 PM MDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 9 miles northwest
of New England, or 16 miles southwest of Dickinson, moving northeast
at 40 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Dickinson, New England, Richardton, Gladstone, Taylor, Havelock,
Schefield, Lefor and Dickinson Regional Airport.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 500 AM MDT for
southwestern North Dakota.

LAT...LON 4645 10293 4663 10293 4663 10317 4681 10320
      4701 10235 4643 10222
TIME...MOT...LOC 0450Z 246DEG 35KT 4667 10295

CJS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1230 AM CDT SUN JUL 8 2018

NDZ018-019-033-034-080600-
Stark ND-Mercer ND-Morton ND-Dunn ND-
1230 AM CDT SUN JUL 8 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN DUNN...NORTHWESTERN
MORTON...EASTERN STARK AND SOUTHWESTERN MERCER COUNTIES UNTIL 100 AM
CDT/MIDNIGHT MDT/...

At 1230 AM CDT/1130 PM MDT/, a strong thunderstorm was located over
Richardton, or 19 miles east of Dickinson, moving northeast at 50
mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Beulah, Glen Ullin, Hebron, Richardton and Taylor.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 600 AM CDT/500 AM
MDT/ for south central and southwestern North Dakota.

LAT...LON 4699 10264 4732 10178 4718 10176 4677 10175
      4670 10245
TIME...MOT...LOC 0530Z 237DEG 41KT 4689 10237

CJS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
102 AM CDT SUN JUL 8 2018

NDZ019-020-034-080645-
Oliver ND-Mercer ND-Morton ND-
102 AM CDT SUN JUL 8 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN MORTON...WESTERN
OLIVER AND SOUTHERN MERCER COUNTIES UNTIL 145 AM CDT...

At 101 AM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 9 miles northeast of
Hebron, or 15 miles north of Glen Ullin, moving east at 40 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Beulah, Hebron, Center, Stanton and Hannover.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 600 AM CDT for
south central North Dakota.

LAT...LON 4688 10203 4717 10212 4734 10138 4687 10117
TIME...MOT...LOC 0601Z 250DEG 33KT 4702 10195

CJS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
117 AM CDT SUN JUL 8 2018

NDZ034-045-080645-
Sioux ND-Morton ND-
117 AM CDT SUN JUL 8 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN SIOUX AND
SOUTHEASTERN MORTON COUNTIES UNTIL 145 AM CDT...

At 117 AM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 9 miles southwest of
St. Anthony, or 23 miles south of Mandan, moving northeast at 40 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts to 55 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Flasher, Solen, St. Anthony, Breien, Fort Rice and Huff.

Very heavy rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 600 AM CDT for
south central North Dakota.

LAT...LON 4630 10105 4637 10105 4637 10117 4645 10130
      4677 10095 4670 10079 4669 10078 4668 10074
      4666 10074 4666 10069 4661 10063 4659 10057
      4658 10056 4657 10059 4653 10054 4650 10058
      4644 10060 4623 10094
TIME...MOT...LOC 0617Z 225DEG 36KT 4649 10100

SCHILD

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