Severe Thunderstorm Warning 95, NWS Binghamton, NY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
346 PM EDT Tue Oct 2 2018

.SYNOPSIS...

A cold front will slowly move through tonight with showers and
thunderstorms. High pressure moving through the region will lead
to a dry day Wednesday before the next cold front with
additional showers on Thursday and Thursday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

Tonight: Earlier showers and thunderstorms have developed a
boundary across northern PA which additional showers and
thunderstorms are forming along. These showers and storms are
moving west to east with heavy rainfall and are training. This
will result in the continued threat for flash flooding in the
watch area centered just south of the NY/PA line. Parameters
have become more favorable for severe weather across NE PA as
well with a localized increase in 0-1KM Helicity and modest
cape of around 1,000 J/KG at the surface and in the mid-levels.
Winds are fairly strong just off the surface so the potential
continues for some storms that develop to bring these gusty
winds to the surface. The localized helicity adds the potential
for spin as well and the threat of a tornado. A tornado and
flash flood watch continue into and through a good portion of
the evening as a result. Showers and thunderstorms will end late
this evening into the overnight with stratus clouds lingering
through the night. Some patchy fog will likely form toward
sunrise as well. Lows tonight will be in the 50 to around 60.

Wednesday and Wednesday night:

High pressure will build southeastward into the region leading
toward continuing clearing through the morning with more in the
way of sunshine in the afternoon. Temperatures will slowly rise
into the 60's for most of the area. The high pressure system
will start to head east Wednesday night with an increase in
clouds ahead of the next cold front. Temperatures may actually
rise a bit Wednesday night given the increase in warm air
advection ahead of the next front.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Cold front over the central Great Lakes will push through the
area on Thursday and generate a solid line of showers and
thunderstorms, into the overnight hours. By early friday, the
front will be far south and east of the area. A 1028mb Canadian
high pressure building in behind the front will bring clearing
skies and much drier air.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Long wave trough develops over the western US as a ridge builds
over the east. Between the two is a frontal boundary that runs
from the central Plains to the northern Great Lakes. The ridge
holds fast through the long term as the boundary generally
stays to the north and west. The front tries to drift into the
northern and central zones early Sunday so there is the chance
of showers and thunderstorms, mainly over the NY zones. Front is
forecast then to move back north later Sunday into Monday will
decrease chances of showers.

With the front nearly parallel to the upper flow, the exact
position of the front is difficult to forecast so the
confidence level is low for the period. In general though
temperatures should be above normal into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Quite a variety in conditions will continue through the evening.
Periods of showers and thunderstorms will lift and lower
ceilings from VFR all the way to low end IFR. This variation
makes pinpointing the exact timing of restrictions more
uncertain. Showers and thunderstorm timing was approximated with
tempo groups for later this afternoon.

Ceilings will lower with additional stratus and fog formation
overnight with the lowest restrictions around sunrise.
Visibilities will likely lower to MVFR or even IFR/LIFR at
KELM. The ceilings will gradually break up Wednesday morning.
Winds will be under 10 knots outside any thunderstorms outside
the TAF period.

Outlook...

Wednesday afternoon and night...VFR.

Thursday...Restrictions likely in showers/thunderstorms in the
afternoon and evening.

Friday through Saturday morning...Mainly VFR.

Saturday afternoon through Sunday: Potential for restrictions
with some stratus.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Flash Flood Watch until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for PAZ038>040-043-
     044-047-048-072.
NY...Flash Flood Watch until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for NYZ022-024-
     055>057-062.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MWG
NEAR TERM...MWG
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...MWG

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
1157 AM EDT Tue Oct 2 2018

NYZ022-024-055>057-062-PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072-031600-
Steuben-Chemung-Tioga-Broome-Delaware-Sullivan-Bradford-Susquehanna-
Northern Wayne-Wyoming-Lackawanna-Luzerne-Pike-Southern Wayne-
1157 AM EDT Tue Oct 2 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New York and
northeast Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

 Flash Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Another round of thunderstorms is expected on Thursday with strong
wind gusts and heavy downpours possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NYZ009-015>018-023-025-036-037-044>046-031600-
Northern Oneida-Yates-Seneca-Southern Cayuga-Onondaga-Schuyler-
Tompkins-Madison-Southern Oneida-Cortland-Chenango-Otsego-
1157 AM EDT Tue Oct 2 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New York.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Thunderstorms are expected along a cold front today and a few may
produce damaging wind gusts and heavy downpours. Wet soil conditions
may allow for some minor flooding issues to develop, such as ponding
of water on roadways and other low lying areas. Main stem river
flooding is not expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Another round of thunderstorms is expected on Thursday with strong
wind gusts and heavy downpours possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
617 PM EDT TUE OCT 02 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0540 PM     FLOOD            1 NW RANSOM             41.40N  75.84W
10/02/2018                   LUZERNE            PA   911 CALL CENTER

            FLOODING ON ROADWAY AT 2372 ROUTE 92

&&

BJG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
622 PM EDT TUE OCT 02 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0615 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SPRINGBROOK CORNER      41.30N  75.60W
10/02/2018                   LACKAWANNA         PA   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            TREES DOWN. MULTIPLE TREES ACROSS ROADWAY. POSSIBLE
            FUNNEL CLOUD SIGHTED.

&&

JML

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
635 PM EDT TUE OCT 2 2018

PAZ043-047-022315-
Wyoming PA-Luzerne PA-
635 PM EDT TUE OCT 2 2018

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT...NORTHWESTERN LUZERNE AND
SOUTHWESTERN WYOMING COUNTIES UNTIL 715 PM EDT...

At 635 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Jamison City, or 20 miles north of Berwick, moving east at 30 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Muhlenberg, Nanticoke, Plymouth, Larksville, Lehman, Dallas, Harveys
Lake, Dorrance, Slocum and Sugar Notch.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead to
flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM EDT for northeastern
Pennsylvania.

LAT...LON 4117 7630 4120 7632 4130 7631 4146 7625
      4142 7598 4106 7588
TIME...MOT...LOC 2235Z 288DEG 28KT 4133 7640

JRK

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
709 PM EDT TUE OCT 2 2018

NYZ036-045-046-030000-
Otsego NY-Chenango NY-Madison NY-
709 PM EDT TUE OCT 2 2018

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT...NORTHERN OTSEGO...
SOUTHEASTERN MADISON AND NORTHEASTERN CHENANGO COUNTIES UNTIL 800 PM
EDT...

At 709 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Brookfield to near Poolville. Movement was
east at 30 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Brookfield, Middlefield, Hartwick, Cooperstown, Edmeston, Burlington,
Columbus, Earlville, Cherry Valley and Bowerstown.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead to
minor flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

Additional statements will be issued as conditions warrant.

&&

LAT...LON 4260 7505 4274 7566 4285 7537 4280 7466
      4275 7466
TIME...MOT...LOC 2309Z 280DEG 27KT 4279 7534 4273 7548

DAB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
714 PM EDT TUE OCT 02 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0714 PM     FLOOD            MOOSIC                  41.36N  75.70W
10/02/2018                   LACKAWANNA         PA   911 CALL CENTER

            BASEMENTS BEING PUMPED OUT DUE TO FLOODING

&&

BJG