River Flood Warning 20, NWS Binghamton, NY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
752 AM EDT Tue Aug 14 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure continues to track over the region today with
rounds of heavy showers leading to some flash flooding this
morning, and another round of showers and storms this afternoon
and evening. A weak frontal boundary will be north of the
region through the middle of the week which will be followed by
a cold frontal passage on Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
430 am update...
Main concerns in the near term remain focused around the ongoing
threat of flooding from heavy rain today on top of already saturated
surfaces.

A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect today and has been extended
through this evening to account for the potential of additional
afternoon/evening convection producing locally heavy rainfall.

Large cut-off upper low over NY/PA this morning will continue to
rotate slowly ewd today and combine with rich source of deep
layer moisture to produce steady rain showers...with embedded
heavier bursts this morning. An area of divergence aloft is
enhancing the large-scale lifting, and weak instability is
helping to generate moderate elevated convection across
w-central NY...in the central Finger Lakes region this morning.
The continuous supply of moisture from the east...with 1.75-2
inch PWATs advecting in...aligned with the upper level support
and corridor of instability will remain quasi-stationary through
a good portion of the rest of the morning and allow for the same
areas to see a steady dose of moderate to heavy rain. Have
already seen a few reports of around 1 inch in a couple
hours...and 2.5 inches in about 3 hours. These rainfall rates
will likely be too much to handle in saturated soils and lead to
nearly instant runoff and localized flooding issues.

The area we are watching this morning is from Seneca Falls to
Watkins Glen into to ne Steuben county. Around 1 to 3 inches has
fallen since late last evening, and another batch of mod-hvy
rain to the north appears to be taking aim at this area in the
next 3 to 4 hours, which will likely cause further flooding
issues in srn Seneca, ern Yates and nrn Schuyler counties.

The threat for additional rain will continue this morning for
all other locations of central NY and ne PA...with slow moving
storms producing brief heavy bursts. However, the next round
this afternoon and evening will need to be watched closely as
the boundary layer destabilizes and more convection develops.
The upper low should start to pick up movement later today,
which may give the storms enough motion to help mitigate the
heavy rain/flash flooding threat. The concern later today will
be with the short-duration heavy rainfall rates...where a quick
0.5 to 1 inch in an hour or less will worsen any on-going
problems. Heavy rain will be possible anywhere across central NY
and ne PA, but the areas of concern will continue to be the
central srn tier and Catskills in NY and all of ne PA where most
surfaces are fairly saturated.

Rain showers and thunderstorms should taper off later this
evening as the system pulls out to the east. A few light rain
showers may linger tonight with patchy fog as well.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
430 am update...
Weak high pressure will build in on Wednesday, and allow much of
the region to dry out, at least during the morning hours before
afternoon heating allows for a few scattered showers and weak
storms. Air mass should be fairly dry aloft, so not expecting
any significant heavy rain threat.

Convection should dissipate quickly Wed evening with quiet
weather through most of the night Wed night. The next system
begins to push in from the west Thursday with showers and storms
increasing in coverage and probability through the day.
Temperatures Wed and Thur should be warm with highs in the 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
3 AM update...

More unsettled weather this period especially early. A progressive
upper level trough moves from the Midwest Thursday night into our
area Saturday. Ahead of this trough will be a surface low that
passes just to the north but multiple fronts will pass through.
Timing of the fronts will be critical to how strong thunderstorms
will be and how much rain falls. At this time, models have an
afternoon warm front and evening cold front. With deep southwest
flow ahead of the front precipitable water values peak around 2
inches. More flash flooding is possible. Lows will be in the 60s
with highs Friday in the 80s. Another humid day with dewpoint
temperatures around 70.

The rest of the days, lower chances of showers and thunderstorms but
still some with the upper level trough weakening but stalling on the
east Coast. Surface high pressure tries to build in but might not
succeed with the cold air aloft. These days mainly scattered to
isolated afternoon showers. Highs around 80 and lows around 60.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
740 am update...

Areas of moderate rain showers, and possibly even thunderstorms
will continue today. Ceilings and vsbys could vary widely
especially at ELM, ITH and AVP early. Generally MVFR conditions
will slowly improve to VFR late today and evening. Some clearing
tonight will lead to fog and fuel alternate cigs late. Possibly
lower conditions in south central NY where the better rain is.

Northwest at 4 to 8 kts becoming light and variable tonight..

Outlook...

Wednesday through Thursday...Primarily VFR although brief
restrictions possible in isolated convection.

Friday...Restrictions possible due to showers and thunderstorms.

Saturday...Primarily VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Flash Flood Watch through this evening for PAZ038>040-043-044-
     047-048-072.
NY...Flash Flood Watch through this evening for NYZ022>025-044>046-
     055>057-062.

&&

SYNOPSIS...BJT
NEAR TERM...BJT
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...TAC

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
339 AM EDT Tue Aug 14 2018

NYZ009-015>018-036-037-150745-
Northern Oneida-Yates-Seneca-Southern Cayuga-Onondaga-Madison-
Southern Oneida-
339 AM EDT Tue Aug 14 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

A slow moving low pressure system over Pennsylvania will bring
showers and thunderstorms to the area today, some of which may
contain very heavy rain. This heavy rain may cause minor flooding of
low lying areas and culverts.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NYZ022>025-044>046-055>057-062-PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072-150745-
Steuben-Schuyler-Chemung-Tompkins-Cortland-Chenango-Otsego-Tioga-
Broome-Delaware-Sullivan-Bradford-Susquehanna-Northern Wayne-Wyoming-
Lackawanna-Luzerne-Pike-Southern Wayne-
339 AM EDT Tue Aug 14 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New York and
northeast Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

 Flash Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
521 AM EDT TUE AUG 14 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0521 AM     FLASH FLOOD      LODI                    42.61N 76.82W
08/14/2018                   SENECA             NY   911 CALL CENTER

            NUMEROUS ROADS FLOODED ACROSS SOUTHERN
            SENECA COUNTY.

&&

BJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
545 AM EDT TUE AUG 14 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0520 AM     FLASH FLOOD      1 W LODI STATION        42.62N 76.88W
08/14/2018                   SENECA             NY   911 CALL CENTER

            REPORT OF WOMAN TRAPPED IN CAMPER. MULTIPLE
            WATER RESCUES REPORTED.

&&

BJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
548 AM EDT TUE AUG 14 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0548 AM     FLASH FLOOD      1 W LODI STATION        42.62N 76.87W
08/14/2018                   SENECA             NY   911 CALL CENTER

            6 VEHICLES AND 2 CAMPERS WASHED DOWN MILL
            CREEK.

&&

BJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
553 AM EDT TUE AUG 14 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0552 AM     FLASH FLOOD      LODI                    42.61N 76.83W
08/14/2018                   SENECA             NY   911 CALL CENTER

            ZODIAC RESCUES FOR PEOPLE TRAPPED IN HOUSES
            NEAR LODI.

&&

BJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
638 AM EDT TUE AUG 14 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0620 AM     FLASH FLOOD      HECTOR                  42.50N  76.87W
08/14/2018                   SCHUYLER           NY   EMERGENCY MNGR

            PEOPLE TRAPPED IN HOMES. RESCUES ONGOING. MANY ROADS
            FLOODED.

&&

JML

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
803 AM EDT TUE AUG 14 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 AM     FLASH FLOOD      NEW ALBANY              41.60N  76.44W
08/14/2018                   BRADFORD           PA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            MANY ROADS FLOODED. EVACUATIONS TAKING PLACE.

&&

JML