River Flood Warning 18, NWS Binghamton, NY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
910 PM EDT Mon Aug 13 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will move northeast over the region through
tomorrow with rounds of heavy showers leading to some flash
flooding. A weak frontal boundary will be north of the region
through the middle of the week which will be followed by a cold
frontal passage on Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
908 PM update...
The latest guidance suggests a band of moderate rain will set up
from the Finger Lakes down through portions of the Central
Southern Tier, producing an additional 0.50 inches to an inch of
rain between 6z and 12z.

Hopefully, northern sections of the affected area will absorb
the rain without issue. However, portions of Chemung County
already received flash flooding earlier this afternoon and will
be especially prone to additional flooding issues should heavy
rains affect the region.

A flash flood watch remains in effect for much of the forecast
area.

4 PM update... Tonight: An upper level low pressure system is
located over the Ohio Valley with a surface low off the Mid-
Atlantic coastline. Moisture will continue to stream in from the
Atlantic northward into our region tonight. At this time we
have severe flooding ongoing in the Elmira area along with
Bradford county PA. Mesoscale modeling and the 12Z NAM suggest
several other areas of very heavy rainfall setting up later
today in addition to the ongoing heavy rain. The first is over
northeast PA later this afternoon into the evening with new
development of slow moving showers and a few storms. This
activity is expected to pivot northwest into the Finger Lakes
tonight and southward toward Elmira and Bradford county PA
overnight. A flash flood watch remains in effect through the
night. Quick rises on streams and creeks are occurring and minor
river flooding can not be ruled out in a couple of spots on
Tuesday. 1-3 inches of total rainfall from this afternoon
through Tuesday is expected across the region with the highest
totals in NE PA and the Southern Tier of NY. Lows tonight will
stay warm in the 60's due to clouds and rain. Winds will be
fairly light, under 10 mph.

Tuesday and Tuesday night:

The upper level low will lift northeast through our region with more
showers and a few thunderstorms. The heaviest showers and storms
look to be centered from the Finger Lakes southeast into north
central PA in the morning then the coverage will start to decrease
along with the intensity of the showers later in the day.
Clouds and rain will keep highs down in the 70's again for most
of the region. Winds will be fairly light, under 10 mph. Lows
Tuesday night will fall back into the 60's.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A brief lull in shower activity is forecast early-Wednesday as
the main upper low lifts northeastward. By afternoon, a weak
wave moving out of the Great Lakes will bring the chance for
showers and thunderstorms to our forecast area.

A storm moving up the Ohio Valley will spread additional
thunderstorms into NY and PA through late-Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A cyclone moving along the NY/Ontario border will cause
additional showers and thunderstorms over our forecast area
through late-Friday. The storm will move slowly into
northeastern New England by Saturday, with the attendant cold
front extending through Western MA. The proximity of the front
suggests a slight chance for a shower across our forecast area
on Saturday, though most areas will be dry with partly sunny
skies.

A lack of surface features are expected over NY and PA Sunday.
However, we will remain beneath a low amplitude trough. An
isolated shower cannot be ruled out.

Dry conditions are expected Monday when a short wave ridge
builds aloft.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Areas of moderate rain will lead to highly variable ceilings
and visibilities through the overnight hours. MVFR conditions
are forecast in rain, but heavier downpours will generate visibilities
between 1SM and 5SM and ceilings between 300 and 1500 feet.

Expect conditions to gradually worsen toward sunrise. A slow
improvement is expected tomorrow afternoon as showers become
more scattered.

Winds will be light through the next 24 hours.

Outlook...

Tuesday night...Ceilings slowly lifting to VFR, perhaps a few
lingering showers.

Wednesday through Thursday...Primarily VFR although brief
restrictions possible in isolated convection.

Friday...Restrictions possible due to showers and storms.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Flash Flood Watch until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for PAZ038>040-043-
     044-047-048-072.
NY...Flash Flood Watch until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for NYZ022>025-
     044>046-055>057-062.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MWG
NEAR TERM...DJP/MWG
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...DJP

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
321 PM EDT Mon Aug 13 2018

NYZ009-015>018-036-037-141930-
Northern Oneida-Yates-Seneca-Southern Cayuga-Onondaga-Madison-
Southern Oneida-
321 PM EDT Mon Aug 13 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New York.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

A slow moving low pressure system over Pennsylvania will bring
showers and thunderstorms to the area, some of which may contain
very heavy rain. This heavy rain may cause flooding of low lying
areas and culverts.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Additional rain is expected Tuesday which could be locally heavy.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NYZ022>025-044>046-055>057-062-PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072-141930-
Steuben-Schuyler-Chemung-Tompkins-Cortland-Chenango-Otsego-Tioga-
Broome-Delaware-Sullivan-Bradford-Susquehanna-Northern Wayne-Wyoming-
Lackawanna-Luzerne-Pike-Southern Wayne-
321 PM EDT Mon Aug 13 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New York and
northeast Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

 Flash Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Additional rain is expected Tuesday which could be locally heavy.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
727 PM EDT MON AUG 13 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0725 PM     HEAVY RAIN       EXETER                  41.33N  75.82W
08/13/2018  E4.00 INCH       LUZERNE            PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NEARLY 4IN FROM 2-7PM

&&

HLC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
738 PM EDT MON AUG 13 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0737 PM     FLASH FLOOD      PECKVILLE               41.48N  75.62W
08/13/2018                   LACKAWANNA         PA   911 CALL CENTER

            FLOODED ROADWAY NEAR PLANET FITNESS

&&

HLC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
824 PM EDT MON AUG 13 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0823 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 N MOSCOW              41.37N  75.53W
08/13/2018                   LACKAWANNA         PA   911 CALL CENTER

            FLOODED ROADWAY, NEAR GOLF CLUB RD AND STATE RT. 590

&&

HLC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
858 PM EDT MON AUG 13 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0856 PM     FLASH FLOOD      CONKLIN                 42.03N  75.80W
08/13/2018                   BROOME             NY   EMERGENCY MNGR

            WATER ON ROADWAYS IN CONKLIN AND KIRKWOOD

&&

HLC