Special Weather Statement, NWS La Crosse, WI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
650 PM CDT Mon Jun 18 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Mon Jun 18 2018

Sfc cold front has slid south of I-90 early this afternoon and is
progged to continue its gradually decent southwards - roughly from
central IA into northern Il this evening. Upper level shortwave
lifting northeast out of the southern/central Plains will track
across the boundary tonight, providing another focusing mechanism
for showers/storm development. Not a ton of push for the shortwave,
and will likely continue to help with pcpn chances across the south
into Tue. Moisture transport/LLJ initially into and across the
front this evening, but quickly becomes more parallel - and not as
convergent. All said, plenty of lift for available saturation for
more showers/storms from late this afternoon into Tue. Setup,
positioning of the various features continues to favor chances
mostly south of I-90.

As for the strong/severe question - latest satellite has kept much
of the local area under bkn clouds from the morning into early
afternoon. Hot, humid air mass remains in place south of the front.
Instability is building with MUCAPEs of +2K J/kg possible across
parts of NE IA/SW WI by 00z this evening. Deep shear remains
confined to the cool sector well north of the front, but 0-3km shear
suggested around 20-30 kts. That will provide some aid for storm
development. See a strong/severe threat ala yesterday, but much
depends on where the front/clearing line is at mid/late afternoon.
Better chances just to the south, and southwest where the shortwave
will have more of an influence this evening. Heavy rain (flooding?)
threat remains - and more details below in the HYDROLOGY section.

On the plus side, the passage of the cold front will usher in a
cooler, less humid airmass. Temps looking to be at or below the
seasonable normals into the weekend.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Mon Jun 18 2018

For Tuesday night thru Thursday night: Main fcst concerns this
period are SHRA/TSRA chances mainly Tue night.

Model runs of 18.12z offering a tightening consensus for the mid
level low over the northern Rockies today to hold together (vs.
opening up) and move SE from WY/MT into the mid MS valley thru this
period. Fcst confidence for Tue night thru Thu night is average to
good this cycle.

Tightening consensus track of the mid level low now keeps it and
much of the assocaited forcing/lift south/west of the fcst area this
period. Some lower level thermo-dynamic forcing, aided by a lead
shortwave, still impinges on the SW side of the fcst area Tue night.
Some 20-40% SHRA/TSRA chances mainly across the S end of the fcst
area Tue night, followed by SHRA/TSRA chances limited to the SW end
of the fcst area Wed thru Thu night, are reasonable. An easterly sfc-
850mb flow out of high pressure over the great lakes is looking to
keep highs Wed/Thu close to the mid June normals.

For Friday through Monday (days 4 to 7): main fcst concerns this
period are SHRA/TSRA chances Fri/Fri night and continued unsettled
pattern Sat thru Mon.

Medium range model runs of 18.12z continue with the tightening
consensus on the evolution of the mid level low Fri/Sat, lifting it
NE and opening it up Fri thru Sat. Plenty of between model and run-
to-run differences by later Sat thru Mon, as an active looking flow
pattern remains over the northern CONUS. Fcst confidence for Fri-Mon
is average for a day 4-7 period.

Mid level low opening up and lifting NE Fri into Sat would spread
increasing moisture transport and some lift northward into the fcst
area. SHRA/TSRA chances across much of the fcst area Fri afternoon/
evening reasonable at this point. Unsettled look of the flow pattern
and model detail differences, cannot argue against the small
consensus SHRA/TSRA chances much of the Sat-Mon period. Not all of
the Sat-Mon periods will end up with some rain chances, but little
confidence in picking out the dry ones at this time. Even with
variability for precip chances Fri-Mon, consensus is for high
pressure to hold over the great lakes, with persistent E to NE low
level flow across the Upper Midwest. Blend of day 4-7 guidance highs
a few degrees either side of normal looks good at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 650 PM CDT Mon Jun 18 2018

Lower confidence forecast tonight on how the details will unfold. In
the big picture, a weather system will bring light rain to the
area overnight. CIGS are currently lower VFR or MVFR around the
airfields. With showers moving in, ceilings will lower into solid
MVFR, with KRST possibly in the IFR category. Visibilities should
remain higher if rain rates arent too high, which they should not
be with limited instability.

Isolated thunder cannot be ruled out but this was too low to add
to the TAF at this time.

Confidence is lower on ceilings from 12Z onward on Tuesday.
Tuesday
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 230 PM CDT Mon Jun 18 2018

Heavy rainfall (2-4") has resulted in flooding (generally localized)
across portions of western/north-central Wisconsin. Conditions have
improved through the morning-early afternoon hours, and the areal
flood warnings that were in effect were allowed to expire.

The setup for heavy rain shifts south of Interstate 90 for this
afternoon/night. Warm cloud depths close to 4.5K km and PWs in
excess of +2 inches prime the pump for efficient heavy rain
producers.

Models point to cold front laying up west-east from central IA into
northern IL this evening. Low level moisture transport/jet runs into
the boundary, but generally more parallel to the boundary - not as
favorable of an orientation. Still, with convection expected along
and north of the boundary tonight, and west-east running storms for
training, localized flooding could become a concern. Northeast IA
and southwest WI hasn't seen much rain of late and a widespread
flash flood threat doesn't look likely at this time - so don't
anticipate the need for a watch.

Rainfall across the region will contribute to rises on area rivers
and streams, including along the Mississippi. Some river flooding
could/will result over the next few days, dependent on where the
heaviest rainfall occurs.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Rieck
LONG TERM....RRS
AVIATION...Baumgardt
HYDROLOGY....Rieck

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
318 PM CDT Mon Jun 18 2018

MNZ079-086>088-094>096-WIZ017-029-032>034-041>044-053-191000-
Wabasha-Dodge-Olmsted-Winona-Mower-Fillmore-Houston-Taylor-Clark-
Buffalo-Trempealeau-Jackson-La Crosse-Monroe-Juneau-Adams-Vernon-
318 PM CDT Mon Jun 18 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast
Minnesota into central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Thunderstorms are possible through tonight. Lightning and brief
heavy rainfall are the primary hazards.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

There will be periodic thunderstorm chances through the week. At
this time the probability for severe appears low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated, but rainfall amounts are
appreciated.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

No webinar is scheduled.

IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030-WIZ054-055-061-191000-
Mitchell-Howard-Winneshiek-Allamakee-Floyd-Chickasaw-Fayette-
Clayton-Crawford-Richland-Grant-
318 PM CDT Mon Jun 18 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northeast Iowa
and southwest Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Scattered thunderstorms across the area through tonight. A few
storms could be strong to severe with heavy rainfall, damaging
winds, and hail. Localized flooding is possible where storms
repeat.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

There will be periodic thunderstorm chances through the week. At
this time the probability for severe appears low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated, but rainfall amounts are
appreciated.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

No webinar is scheduled.

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
641 PM CDT MON JUN 18 2018

IAZ029-030-WIZ061-190100-
Clayton-Fayette-Grant-
641 PM CDT MON JUN 18 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CLAYTON...FAYETTE AND GRANT
COUNTIES...

Through 8 PM, strong thunderstorms with very heavy rain will move
northeast at 30 mph across Clayton and Fayette counties in northeast
Iowa and Grant County in southwest Wisconsin.  Rainfall rates will
be up to 2 inches per hour and the winds will gust up to 40 mph.

Torrential rainfall with these storms may cause localized flooding.
Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

LAT...LON 4264 9071 4268 9090 4265 9090 4264 9208
      4297 9208 4301 9043 4251 9042 4251 9064
TIME...MOT...LOC 2337Z 229DEG 33KT 4280 9192

JSB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
801 PM CDT MON JUN 18 2018

WIZ061-190230-
Grant-
801 PM CDT MON JUN 18 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT GRANT COUNTY...

Through 930 PM, scattered strong thunderstorms will move east at
30 mph across Grant County.  These thunderstorms will produce
winds in excess of 30 mph and hourly rainfall amounts up to
2 inches.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with some of these storms, and this
may cause localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through
flooded roadways.

LAT...LON 4254 9064 4264 9071 4269 9095 4272 9102
      4275 9107 4288 9110 4291 9114 4297 9043
      4251 9042 4251 9064
TIME...MOT...LOC 0057Z 269DEG 31KT 4283 9095

JSB