Severe Thunderstorm Warning 16, NWS Amarillo, TX

178 
WWUS54 KAMA 130049
SVSAMA

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
749 PM CDT SAT MAY 12 2018

TXC087-129-130145-
/O.CON.KAMA.SV.W.0016.000000T0000Z-180513T0145Z/
Collingsworth TX-Donley TX-
749 PM CDT SAT MAY 12 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 845 PM CDT
FOR WEST CENTRAL COLLINGSWORTH AND SOUTHEASTERN DONLEY COUNTIES...

At 749 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Hedley, or 11
miles east of Clarendon, moving northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Minor damage to roofs, siding, and trees is possible. Hail 
         damage to vehicles is expected. 

Locations impacted include...
Hedley, Quail and Lelia Lake. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3506 10074 3491 10039 3479 10070 3484 10084
TIME...MOT...LOC 0049Z 227DEG 21KT 3489 10069 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

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044 
WWUS54 KAMA 130103
SVSAMA

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
803 PM CDT SAT MAY 12 2018

TXC087-129-130113-
/O.CAN.KAMA.SV.W.0016.000000T0000Z-180513T0145Z/
Collingsworth TX-Donley TX-
803 PM CDT SAT MAY 12 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR WEST CENTRAL COLLINGSWORTH AND
SOUTHEASTERN DONLEY COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore the warning has been cancelled.

LAT...LON 3506 10074 3491 10039 3479 10070 3484 10084
TIME...MOT...LOC 0100Z 234DEG 17KT 3493 10062 

$$

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Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
533 PM CDT Sat May 12 2018

.AVIATION...
A warm front will move to the north, so southeast winds at GUY
should switch around to more southerly overnight. Southerly winds
will continue at DHT and AMA. Winds are expected to increase and
get gusty by late morning on Sunday. Skies are expected to remain
VFR as showers and thunderstorms should stay to the east of the
TAF sites.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 359 PM CDT Sat May 12 2018/

DISCUSSION...
Dryline set up along the eastern third of the
Panhandles.  Highs today were very tricky as a weak frontal system
stalled over the northern Panhandles.  Highs across the Oklahoma
Panhandle and northern Texas Panhandle may only make it to the upper
80s, as north winds persisted much longer than expected. Although
there soundings indicate a potential cap in place, the latest CAM's
suggest that scattered storms will develop along the dryline over a
Donley to Beaver County line. Deterministic model soundings that
suggested a drier solution, have not handled the dewpoints along the
eastern counties very well. By 1pm most models had dewpoints in the
mid to upper 40s across the east, and latest obs across the eastern
Panhandles are in the upper 40s to lower 60s.  Storms may merge into
a line and become marginally severe, with wind being the main
threat. High based storms with low precipitation potential, will
pose a threat for new fire starts due to lightning. Storms are
expected to initiate around 4pm and will likely exit by about 10pm.
There may be some lingering showers along the far east after 10pm,
but wont last long.

Weber

Going forward from Sunday through the remainder of the forecast
period, we have chances of diurnal showers and thunderstorms just
about everyday. Some tricky aspects to the forecast however are
high temperatures on Sunday and Monday, especially across
northern areas as a cold front is currently quasi-stationary
across the northern TX Panhandle. Depending on its equatorward
and/or poleward progression, temperatures will be cooler behind
the front and might have to adjust temperatures accordingly based
on its trend of motion. However going into the day on Tuesday,
latest 12/12Z model and probabilistic data, the cold front will slowly
move southeast across the area. With no pronounced mid level
flow, the front should take its time moving southeast across the
area. out ahead of the front Tuesday through Wednesday evening
will see the best chance of showers and storms. Throughout Sunday
through Wednesday, thunderstorm will generally be in a high CAPE,
low shear environment, a very typical late summer pattern. This
may lead to slow moving thunderstorms that could train and
possible lead to some localized flooding if thunderstorms persist
in the same areas. Something to monitor in the coming few days.
High temperatures will remain above average.

Starting Thursday throughout the remainder of the forecast
period, an upper level system will enter the Great Basin region
proving additional diurnal chances of showers and storms for the
region. A higher magnitude lower level wind flow may provide
better low level support for better organized convection, but we
will analyze that as we get closer with time. High temperature
will continue to be above average.

Meccariello

FIRE WEATHER...
Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected this
evening with min RH values between 8 to 15 percent with southerly 20
ft winds of 15-20 kts. Elevated fire weather conditions are
possible across the western Panhandles on Sunday with min RH
values between 10-15 percent along with 20 ft. winds out of the
southwest around 20 kts.

Meccariello

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for the following
     zones: Dallam...Deaf Smith...Hartley...Moore...Oldham...
     Palo Duro Canyon...Potter...Randall...Sherman.

OK...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for the following
     zones: Cimarron.

&&

15/16

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
418 PM CDT Sat May 12 2018

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-317-131100-
Cimarron-Texas-Beaver-Dallam-Sherman-Hansford-Ochiltree-Lipscomb-
Hartley-Moore-Hutchinson-Roberts-Hemphill-Oldham-Potter-Carson-
Gray-Wheeler-Deaf Smith-Randall-Armstrong-Donley-Collingsworth-
Palo Duro Canyon-
418 PM CDT Sat May 12 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Texas and Oklahoma
Panhandles.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

A Red Flag Warning is in effect from noon until 9 PM tonight.
Critical Fire Weather conditions are expected through this evening
for western sections of the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles due to
strong winds and low relative humidity values.

Isolated thunderstorms may develop across eastern sections of the
Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles this afternoon and into the evening.
If storms form, they will have the potential to become strong,
with gusty winds and hail the primary hazards.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Thunderstorms will be possible Sunday through Thursday across
parts of the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles. If storms develop,
they will have the potential to become strong to marginally
severe, with strong, gusty winds and hail the primary hazards.

Elevated Fire Weather conditions may arise Sunday due to strong
winds and low relative humidity values for western portions of the
Panhandles.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

Area fire managers and emergency officials should be alert for
critical fire weather conditions this evening and elevated fire
weather conditions tomorrow.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
659 PM CDT SAT MAY 12 2018

TXZ014-015-019-130045-
Gray TX-Wheeler TX-Donley TX-
659 PM CDT SAT MAY 12 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL WHEELER...
SOUTHEASTERN GRAY AND NORTHWESTERN DONLEY COUNTIES UNTIL 745 PM
CDT...

At 659 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles south of Lake Mcclellan, or 13 miles north of Clarendon, moving
northeast at 40 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Mclean, Lefors, Alanreed, Lake Mcclellan and Kellerville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take shelter in a sturdy building if threatening weather approaches.

&&

LAT...LON 3498 10077 3509 10097 3550 10080 3536 10042
TIME...MOT...LOC 2359Z 210DEG 35KT 3512 10082

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
701 PM CDT SAT MAY 12 2018

TXZ019-130045-
Donley TX-
701 PM CDT SAT MAY 12 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN DONLEY COUNTY UNTIL 745
PM CDT...

At 701 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Brice, or 13 miles south of Clarendon, moving northeast at 25 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Clarendon, Hedley and Lelia Lake.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take shelter in a sturdy building if threatening weather approaches.

&&

LAT...LON 3475 10106 3499 10088 3483 10055 3475 10068
TIME...MOT...LOC 0001Z 225DEG 22KT 3474 10092

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