Red Flag Warning 42, NWS Amarillo, TX

577 
WWUS84 KAMA 140153
RFWAMA

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
853 PM CDT Sun May 13 2018

OKZ001-TXZ001-006-011-016-140300-
/O.EXP.KAMA.FW.W.0042.000000T0000Z-180514T0200Z/
Cimarron-Dallam-Hartley-Oldham-Deaf Smith-
853 PM CDT Sun May 13 2018

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
STRONG WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR WESTERN PARTS OF THE
PANHANDLES...

Critical fire weather conditions are no longer expected.

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
www.weather.gov/ama

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1210 AM CDT Sun May 13 2018

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF Cycle

VFR conditions will prevail at all three TAF sites through 06Z
Monday. Winds will be from the southeast to southwest 15 to 25
knots with gusts near 30 knots at the Amarillo and Guymon TAF
sites through around 08Z to 11Z Sunday with winds diminishing to
around 10 to 20 knots by 08Z to 11Z Sunday. Winds will remain 10
to 20 knots at the Dalhart TAF site through around 15Z to 17Z
Sunday. South to southwest winds will increase to around 15 to 25
knots at all three TAF sites around 17Z to 20Z Sunday. Winds will
then become southeast to south and diminish again to 10 to 20
knots after 00Z to 02Z Monday.

Schneider

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 533 PM CDT Sat May 12 2018/

AVIATION...
A warm front will move to the north, so southeast winds at GUY
should switch around to more southerly overnight. Southerly winds
will continue at DHT and AMA. Winds are expected to increase and
get gusty by late morning on Sunday. Skies are expected to remain
VFR as showers and thunderstorms should stay to the east of the
TAF sites.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 359 PM CDT Sat May 12 2018/

DISCUSSION...
Dryline set up along the eastern third of the
Panhandles.  Highs today were very tricky as a weak frontal system
stalled over the northern Panhandles.  Highs across the Oklahoma
Panhandle and northern Texas Panhandle may only make it to the upper
80s, as north winds persisted much longer than expected. Although
there soundings indicate a potential cap in place, the latest CAM's
suggest that scattered storms will develop along the dryline over a
Donley to Beaver County line. Deterministic model soundings that
suggested a drier solution, have not handled the dewpoints along the
eastern counties very well. By 1pm most models had dewpoints in the
mid to upper 40s across the east, and latest obs across the eastern
Panhandles are in the upper 40s to lower 60s.  Storms may merge into
a line and become marginally severe, with wind being the main
threat. High based storms with low precipitation potential, will
pose a threat for new fire starts due to lightning. Storms are
expected to initiate around 4pm and will likely exit by about 10pm.
There may be some lingering showers along the far east after 10pm,
but wont last long.

Weber

Going forward from Sunday through the remainder of the forecast
period, we have chances of diurnal showers and thunderstorms just
about everyday. Some tricky aspects to the forecast however are
high temperatures on Sunday and Monday, especially across
northern areas as a cold front is currently quasi-stationary
across the northern TX Panhandle. Depending on its equatorward
and/or poleward progression, temperatures will be cooler behind
the front and might have to adjust temperatures accordingly based
on its trend of motion. However going into the day on Tuesday,
latest 12/12Z model and probabilistic data, the cold front will slowly
move southeast across the area. With no pronounced mid level
flow, the front should take its time moving southeast across the
area. out ahead of the front Tuesday through Wednesday evening
will see the best chance of showers and storms. Throughout Sunday
through Wednesday, thunderstorm will generally be in a high CAPE,
low shear environment, a very typical late summer pattern. This
may lead to slow moving thunderstorms that could train and
possible lead to some localized flooding if thunderstorms persist
in the same areas. Something to monitor in the coming few days.
High temperatures will remain above average.

Starting Thursday throughout the remainder of the forecast
period, an upper level system will enter the Great Basin region
proving additional diurnal chances of showers and storms for the
region. A higher magnitude lower level wind flow may provide
better low level support for better organized convection, but we
will analyze that as we get closer with time. High temperature
will continue to be above average.

Meccariello

FIRE WEATHER...
Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected this
evening with min RH values between 8 to 15 percent with southerly 20
ft winds of 15-20 kts. Elevated fire weather conditions are
possible across the western Panhandles on Sunday with min RH
values between 10-15 percent along with 20 ft. winds out of the
southwest around 20 kts.

Meccariello

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

11/24

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1028 PM CDT Sat May 12 2018

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-317-131530-
Cimarron-Texas-Beaver-Dallam-Sherman-Hansford-Ochiltree-Lipscomb-
Hartley-Moore-Hutchinson-Roberts-Hemphill-Oldham-Potter-Carson-
Gray-Wheeler-Deaf Smith-Randall-Armstrong-Donley-Collingsworth-
Palo Duro Canyon-
1028 PM CDT Sat May 12 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Texas and Oklahoma
Panhandles.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Thunderstorms will be possible Sunday through Thursday across
parts of the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles. If storms develop,
they will have the potential to become strong to marginally
severe, with strong, gusty winds and hail the primary hazards.

Elevated Fire Weather conditions may arise Sunday due to strong
winds and low relative humidity values for western portions of the
Panhandles.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

Area fire managers and emergency officials should be alert for
elevated fire weather conditions on Sunday.