Special Weather Statement, NWS Albany, NY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
416 PM EDT Tue Aug 7 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Humid and unsettled conditions will continue through
Wednesday before a cold front approaches and passes through the
region Wednesday night. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible
along and ahead of the front, with heavy rainfall being the primary
threat. Dry weather will return on Thursday, but temperatures will
remain a little above normal through the rest of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Latest GOES-16 visible imagery shows broken line of convection
stretched across the region, from the Catskills across the
Greater Capital District and into southern Vermont. A plethora
of lightning is associated with this convection, along with
reports of several trees down across the area and flooding in
Albany county. This broken line of storms will continue to
progress eastward through the remainder of the afternoon before
waning around sunset. Some of the high res CAM models show some
lingering showers/storms south of the Capital District this
evening but there should be an overall decreasing trend in
activity.

Overnight tonight, temperatures will remain mild, in the mid to
upper 60s, with plenty of cloud cover and low level moisture in
place. Fog will also be possible overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Showers and thunderstorms are once again possible on Wednesday
(late in the afternoon), as a stronger upper level disturbance
approaches the area from the west. Instability and shear will be
limited with plenty of lingering moisture and cloud cover.
Though, the latest NAMBUFR soundings indicate 0-6km shear
around 30 knots, marginal lapse rates (6.0 deg C/km), with
surface based CAPE increasing to around 1000 J/kg late in the
afternoon. There may be some breaks in the clouds and this will
determine how unstable we can get in the afternoon but the
severe threat appears marginal. What is more impressive are the
PWATS, which climb to 2.0-2.2 inches per latest model soundings.
This will lead to locally heavy rain and flooding of urban and
poor drainage areas, with isolated flash flooding as well.
With more clouds around, temps may be slightly lower than
Tuesday, with highs generally in the middle 80s for valley
areas.

Cold front should be crossing through the area by Wednesday
night, ending the threat for widespread showers and
thunderstorms. Dewpoints may come down slightly for Thursday,
but it will still be a little on the warm and humid side. Cannot
rule out a shower on Thursday with the trough axis still close
by (especially early in the day), but most spots look to stay
dry for Thursday with a partly to mostly sunny sky and highs in
the 80s once again. Dry weather is expected for Thursday night
with lows in the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
This period will be typically mid-summer, with daytime high
temperatures mainly from around 70 degrees in the high peaks to the
lower 80s in the valley areas, though Friday will be an even warmer
day from the Capital Region on south.  The overnight lows will be
mostly from the upper 50s to the mid and upper 60s.

With little atmospheric momentum, and no big high or low pressure
areas, humidities will be elevated, and oppressive from the
weekend on with showers and thunderstorms factored in. These
will be triggered by a nearby quasi-stationary front to the
south of our forecast area. Instability will be limited by
extensive cloudiness, but low pressure approaching from the Ohio
Valley will be the trigger for a greater risk of storms across
our entire forecast area on Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Scattered convection is developing across the region with VFR/MVFR
conditions expected.  As with any thunderstorm, MVFR to briefly IFR
conditions are likely.  Seems a couple rounds of this convection are
expected this afternoon and evening as we will place TEMPO groups
and update TAFs once convection becomes more apparent to impacting
these locations.

Later tonight, with high moisture content, MVFR to IFR conditions
with low stratus or fog developing. Winds will be light and variable
as well.

Another round of showers later Wednesday morning as the next round
of deep moisture arrives.  MVFR conditions are expected with deeper
convective elements expected after 18Z Wednesday.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Tonight and tomorrow will be humid with a good chance of
showers and thunderstorms, with locally heavy rain possible
through Wednesday night. Relative humidity values will be
mainly above 55 percent. Southwest winds around 5 to 10 mph
will become westerly tomorrow around 5 mph.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
An approaching frontal boundary will allow for some
thunderstorms this evening and tomorrow, with the greatest
coverage during the afternoon and evening hours. Locally heavy
rainfall may accompany any thunderstorm and the wet antecedent
conditions and high stream flows may easily result in some
flooding, including the potential for localized flash flooding.
Urban, poor drainage and low lying areas would be most
vulnerable, especially within the Capital Region. Rainfall
amounts will be variable due to the convective nature of the
precipitation, but local amounts over an inch are easily
possible.

Dry weather may briefly return on Thursday into Friday, but
additional showers and thunderstorms are possible over the
weekend into early next week.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Heat Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for CTZ001-013.
NY...Heat Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for NYZ038>041-043-
     047>054-059>061-064>066-083-084.
MA...Heat Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for MAZ001-025.
VT...Heat Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for VTZ013-015.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Frugis/JVM
NEAR TERM...JVM
SHORT TERM...Frugis/JVM
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...Frugis/JVM
HYDROLOGY...Frugis/JVM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Albany NY
425 PM EDT Tue Aug 7 2018

CTZ001-013-MAZ001-025-NYZ038>041-043-047>054-059>061-064>066-083-084-
VTZ013-015-091100-
Northern Litchfield-Southern Litchfield-Northern Berkshire-
Southern Berkshire-Southern Herkimer-Southern Fulton-Montgomery-
Northern Saratoga-Northern Washington-Schoharie-Western Schenectady-
Eastern Schenectady-Southern Saratoga-Western Albany-Eastern Albany-
Western Rensselaer-Eastern Rensselaer-Eastern Greene-
Western Columbia-Eastern Columbia-Eastern Ulster-Western Dutchess-
Eastern Dutchess-Southeast Warren-Southern Washington-Bennington-
Eastern Windham-
425 PM EDT Tue Aug 7 2018

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Mid Hudson Valley, Lake
George Saratoga Region, Mohawk Valley, Schoharie Valley, Helderbergs,
Greater Capital District and Taconics of eastern New York,
Bennington County and eastern Windham County in Vermont, Berkshire
County in Massachusetts and Litchfield County in Connecticut.

.DAY ONE...This Evening and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Heat Advisory.

There is a chance for strong to severe thunderstorms, with frequent
lightning and locally heavy downpours through this evening. There is
a marginal risk for both severe thunderstorms and excessive rainfall
which may lead to flash flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

There is a chance for thunderstorms again on Wednesday, especially
in the afternoon and evening hours. Thunderstorms may produce
locally gusty winds and heavy rainfall. For much of the area, there
is a marginal risk for both severe thunderstorms and excessive
rainfall which may lead to flash flooding.

Thunderstorms are also possible Saturday through Monday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed on Wednesday.

NYZ032-033-042-058-063-082-VTZ014-091100-
Northern Herkimer-Hamilton-Northern Warren-Western Greene-
Western Ulster-Northern Fulton-Western Windham-
425 PM EDT Tue Aug 7 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the southern and western
Adirondacks and eastern Catskills of east central New York and the
southern Green Mountains of southern Vermont.

.DAY ONE...This Evening and Tonight.

There is a chance for strong to severe thunderstorms, with frequent
lightning and locally heavy downpours through this evening. There is
a marginal risk for both severe thunderstorms and excessive rainfall
which may lead to flash flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

There is a chance for thunderstorms again on Wednesday, especially
in the afternoon and evening hours. Thunderstorms may produce
locally gusty winds and heavy rainfall. For much of the area, there
is a marginal risk for both severe thunderstorms and excessive
rainfall which may lead to flash flooding.

Thunderstorms are also possible Saturday through Monday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed on Wednesday.

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