Severe Thunderstorm Warning 121, NWS Wakefield, VA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
539 AM EDT Mon Sep 17 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Tropical Depression Florence was centered over extreme southwest
Virginia early this morning. The remnants of Florence will lift
north through the Appalachian mountains today into tonight. The
storm will then move northeast across the northeast United
States Tuesday and Tuesday night, pulling a cold front across
the local area Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night. High
pressure will build down over the region Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 425 AM EDT Monday...

Early this morning, Tropical Depression Florence was cntrd over
extrm SW VA. Bands of showers, some heavy, well east of the
storm, were moving nwrd thru the NC/VA Piedmont counties. Only
isolated showers were occurring E of Interstate 95 over the
remainder of the area. Temps were ranging thru the 70s under a
partly cloudy to cloudy sky.

The remnants of Florence will lift north through the Appalachian
mountains today into tonight. On this track, the highest PoPs
will remain over the wrn half of the region, along with heavier
rains and QPF amts. Highs today will range fm the upper 70s to
mid 80s. Lows tonight in the lower to mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 425 AM EDT Monday...

The storm will move NE across the NE U.S. Tue and Tue night,
pulling a cold front across the local area Tue aftn through
Tue night. High pressure will then build down into the region
Wed.

The chance for showers/isolated tstms will spread eastward Tue
into Tue night, as the low moves acrs the NE U.S. and pulls the
cold front thru the region. Rain chances will come to an end
early Wed morning, as some drier air filters into the area behind
the cold front. A noticeable, though brief, reduction in humidity
will follow for Wed aftn and evening.

Highs will range thru the 80s on Tue, and in the lower to mid
80s on Wed. Lows Tue night will range fm the mid 60s to lower
70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 245 PM EDT Sunday...

Ridge aloft moves across the region the end of the week. A weak
trough aloft will track through the NE CONUS next weeknd
resulting in a flattening to the ridge invof mid-Atlantic/SE
states. A cold front is forecast to approach from the NNW Fri
night...then push SE into/across the local area Sat-Sun. Dry wx
w/ a break in the humidity for Thu/Fri. As the cold front
presses into the local area...RA chcs are expected to gradually
increase.

Lows Wed/Thu nights in the m60s-around 70F. Highs Thu 80-85F
then in the m-u80s Fri. Lows Fri night in the u60s-l70s. Highs
Sat in the l-m80s N to the m-u80s S. Lows Sat night from the
m60s N to around 70F SE. Highs Sun in the l80s N to the m80s S.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 200 AM EDT Monday...

The remnants of Florence combined with a cold front eventually
moving into and acrs the region today thru Tue night, will
result in sctd showers and possible tstms affecting the TAF
sites. Other than isolated IFR Cigs, expect mainly VFR/MVFR
conditions today thru Tue night.

Outlook: Dry weather and mainly VFR conditions finally expected
Wed and Thu.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 400 AM EDT Monday...

Latest obs and buoy reports reveal predominate E-SE winds 10-15 kt
over the waters this morning. Gradient flow has slackened slightly
this morning, but will tighten again later today and tonight between
high pressure to the northeast, and the remnants of Florence, which
will lift well west of the waters today through Tuesday night. Have
maintained SCA on coastal waters, mainly for seas. Winds veer around
to become more southerly today and tonight. Have also hoisted SCA
over the Ches Bay, beginning tonight. Hi-Res models do indicate
potential for low end SCA as early as early to mid afternoon.
However, best LLJ support looks to arrive tonight, and for that
reason will cap winds at 15 kt this aftn, with SCA winds over the
Bay tonight. A cold front crosses the waters Tue night...with
another window of SCA winds possible in post-frontal NNW surge as
drier air spreads into the region into Wed morning.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 535 AM EDT Monday...

Gauges and public/spotter observations have indicated elevated
water levels along the Albemarle and Currituck Sounds, and
adjacent rivers. Nuisance soundside flooding early this morning
over low-lying areas has also produced some road closures. This
is likely due to a persistent east wind combined with strong
wave action along the Atlantic coast. This has likely limited
the flow of water through the inlets into the ocean as has
resulted in the rise in water levels in the sounds and adjacent
rivers. Water levels have begun to level off a bit over the past
few hours this morning, so will allow statement to expire this
morning and continue to monitor.

Coastal Flood Advisories no longer in effect for the upper
Bay.However, will need to watch for another round of increasing
tidal departures over the Ches Bay...esp on the lower MD ern
shore (Cambridge/Bishops Head/Crisfield) and around Lewisetta
as wind speeds increase slightly from the SSW this evening.
Current forecast accounts for reaching low end minor thresholds
at Lewisetta/Cambridge/Bishops Head. However, due to marginal
nature of expected impacts during 2nd forecast period, have
held off w/headline for now.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 10 AM EDT
     Tuesday for ANZ630>632-634.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ650-652-654-
     656-658.

&&

SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...TMG/RHR
LONG TERM...ALB
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...MAM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1140 AM EDT Mon Sep 17 2018

MDZ021>024-NCZ012>017-030>032-VAZ075>078-081>090-092-093-095>097-518-
520-522>525-181545-
Dorchester-Wicomico-Somerset-Inland Worcester-Northampton-Hertford-
Gates-Pasquotank-Camden-Western Currituck-Bertie-Chowan-Perquimans-
Westmoreland-Richmond-Northumberland-Lancaster-Prince George-
Charles City-New Kent-Gloucester-Middlesex-Mathews-Greensville-
Sussex-Surry-James City-Southampton-Isle of Wight-Norfolk/Portsmouth-
Suffolk-Chesapeake-Eastern King William-Eastern King and Queen-
Eastern Essex-York-Newport News-Hampton/Poquoson-
1140 AM EDT Mon Sep 17 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Maryland, northeast
North Carolina, east central Virginia, eastern Virginia, south
central Virginia and southeast Virginia.

There is a marginal risk risk of severe storms across portions of
Central VA and the Tidewater this afternoon. The primary threat is
isolated tornadoes and damaging winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue ahead and along
a cold front Tuesday resulting in periods of heavy rain and gusty
winds.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

MDZ025-NCZ102-VAZ098>100-181545-
Maryland Beaches-Eastern Currituck-Virginia Beach-Accomack-
Northampton-
1140 AM EDT Mon Sep 17 2018

...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Maryland, northeast
North Carolina, eastern Virginia and southeast Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Rip Current Risk.

The remnants of tropical cyclone Florence are expected to cross west
and north of the area through tonight. Scattered showers could
produce some heavy downpours.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

The remnants of tropical cyclone Florence coupled with the passage
of a cold front will result in more showers, which could produce
some moderate to heavy rainfall Tuesday into Tuesday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

VAZ048-060>062-064>069-079-080-509>517-519-521-181545-
Fluvanna-Prince Edward-Cumberland-Goochland-Caroline-Mecklenburg-
Lunenburg-Nottoway-Amelia-Powhatan-Brunswick-Dinwiddie-
Western Louisa-Eastern Louisa-Western Hanover-Eastern Hanover-
Western Chesterfield-Eastern Chesterfield (Including Col. Heights)-
Western Henrico (Including the City of Richmond)-Eastern Henrico-
Western King William-Western King and Queen-Western Essex-
1140 AM EDT Mon Sep 17 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Virginia, east
central Virginia, north central Virginia and south central Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

There is a marginal risk risk of severe storms across portions of
Central VA and the Tidewater this afternoon. The primary threat is
isolated tornadoes and damaging winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue ahead and along
a cold front Tuesday resulting in periods of heavy rain and gusty
winds.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
837 AM EDT MON SEP 17 2018

NCZ012-VAZ079-087-171315-
Northampton-Brunswick-Greensville-
837 AM EDT MON SEP 17 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM SHOWING SIGNS OF ROTATION WILL EFFECT
NORTHWESTERN NORTHAMPTON... SOUTHWESTERN GREENSVILLE AND
SOUTHEASTERN BRUNSWICK COUNTIES...

At 833 AM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 7 miles southwest of
Roanoke Rapids, moving north northeast at 30 mph.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Garysburg, Dahlia, Brunswick, Gaston, Barley, Gasburg, Claresville,
Weldon, Brink, Gum Forks, Triplet, Henrico, Vultare, Valentines,
Slates Corner, Pleasant Hill, Turners Crossroads, Roanoke Rapids
Lake and Lake Gaston.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Doppler radar has indicated weak rotation with this storm across
North Carolina. If the storm intensifies and rotation strengthens, a
warning may need to be issued.

LAT...LON 3641 7755 3642 7756 3642 7759 3644 7760
      3645 7763 3648 7765 3648 7768 3649 7773
      3648 7775 3650 7782 3651 7789 3666 7791
      3665 7741 3634 7758
TIME...MOT...LOC 1233Z 191DEG 36KT 3636 7773

44

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
932 AM EDT MON SEP 17 2018

VAZ079-080-087-088-171415-
Dinwiddie-Sussex-Brunswick-Greensville-
932 AM EDT MON SEP 17 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT WESTERN GREENSVILLE...WEST
CENTRAL SUSSEX...SOUTHERN DINWIDDIE AND EASTERN BRUNSWICK COUNTIES...

At 931 AM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Lawrenceville,
moving north at 35 mph.

Wind gusts in excess of 40 mph are possible with this storm.
Rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Lawrenceville, McKenney, Purdy, Brunswick, Alberta, Radium, Ante,
Brink, Rawlings, Bufford Crossroads, Dolphin, Pleasant Shade, Fields
Crossroads, Warfield, Wharfs Store, Cowie Corner, Ordsburg,
Callaville, Cherry Hill and Edgerton.

This storm continues to have weak rotation with it. If the storm
intensifies and rotation strengthens, a warning may need to be
issued.

Motorists should use extra caution in the vicinity of this storm. Be
prepared for rapid changes in weather and road conditions. Heavy rain
could cause ponding of water on roads, and possible minor flooding of
ditches and poor drainage areas.

LAT...LON 3660 7763 3663 7788 3704 7788 3703 7741
TIME...MOT...LOC 1331Z 188DEG 34KT 3671 7775

44

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1013 AM EDT MON SEP 17 2018

VAZ048-062-064-067>069-079>082-087>089-510>516-171500-
Nottoway-Western Henrico (Including the City of Richmond)-Western
Hanover-Surry-Dinwiddie-Eastern Henrico-Caroline-Eastern
Louisa-Greensville-Goochland-Eastern Hanover-Charles City-Western
Chesterfield-Prince
George-Sussex-Powhatan-Fluvanna-Amelia-Brunswick-Eastern Chesterfield
(Including Col. Heights)-
1013 AM EDT MON SEP 17 2018

...Moderate to heavy rainfall across the I95 corridor...including
the Richmond and Tri-cites metro areas...

At 1011 AM EDT, radar indicated moderate to heavy rainfall located
along a line extending from Hadensville to 6 miles west of Stony
Creek. Movement was north at 30 mph.

Wind gusts in excess of 30 mph are possible with these storms.
Rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Richmond, Petersburg, Powhatan, Dinwiddie, Hopewell, Goochland,
Colonial Heights, Ashland, McKenney, Disputanta, Moseley, Chester,
Mannboro, Fort Lee, University Of Richmond, Virginia State
University, Hadensville, Randolph Macon College, Virginia
Commonwealth University and Tuckahoe.

Motorists should use extra caution in the vicinity of these storms.
Be prepared for rapid changes in weather and road conditions. Heavy
rain could cause ponding of water on roads, and possible minor
flooding of ditches and poor drainage areas.

LAT...LON 3786 7818 3802 7772 3799 7764 3808 7755
      3712 7699 3668 7769 3764 7809 3766 7808
      3768 7811 3771 7809 3773 7813
TIME...MOT...LOC 1411Z 195DEG 97KT 3782 7802 3693 7752

44

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1116 AM EDT MON SEP 17 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1045 AM     FLASH FLOOD      1 NE BUFFALO JUNCTION   36.61N 78.62W
09/17/2018                   MECKLENBURG        VA   911 CALL CENTER

            NUMEROUS ROADS CLOSED IN SOUTHWEST
            MECKLENBURG COUNTY. FLOWING WATER REPORTED
            ACROSS NUMEROUS SECONDARY ROADS WHICH HAVE
            BECOME IMPASSIBLE.

&&

JO