River Flood Warning 30, NWS Wakefield, VA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
408 PM EDT Mon Sep 17 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
The remnants of Florence will lift north through the
Appalachian mountains tonight. The storm will then move
northeast across the northeast United States Tuesday afternoon and
Tuesday night, pulling a cold front across the local area
Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night. High pressure will
build down over the region Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
As of 355 PM EDT Monday...

Latest analysis indicates ~1009 mb sfc low pressure remnant of
Florence moving NE through WV this aftn. Lots of low level
directional shear, combining with a moist humid airmass (and low
LCL's) leading to multiple tornadoes this aftn across central
and south-central VA. A tornado watch is in effect through 10 pm
for portions of the Piedmont and central VA, including metro
Richmond, though following SPC mesoanalysis for effective shear
and VAD wind profiles, bulk of the potential tornado activity
will slowly continue shifting N to NE over the next few hrs and
bulk of high-res guidance indicates storms should rapidly
weaken/diminish around or shortly after sunset. Thus, main
concern will be through sunset and will probably be able to
cancel most or all of the watch earlier than 10 pm. Diminishing
PoPs overnight, but still too much moisture to go w/ a
completely dry forecast so will maintain 20-30% PoPs overnight.
Lows mainly around 70 F NW to the mid 70s SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 355 PM EDT Monday...

The storm will move NE across the NE U.S. Tue and Tue night,
pulling a cold front across the local area Tue aftn through
Tue night. High pressure will then build down into the region
Wed.

Generally not a lot of precipitation coverage expected during
the early morning hrs Tue with the exception of the far NW zones
as the upper low will still be slow to move in from the Mtns.
However, PoPs then ramp up to likely for most of the CWA during
the aftn as high-res models suggest somewhat of an organized
line of showers/tstms will develop and move through as the
remnant sfc low from Florence moves into northern VA along the
I-95 corridor by 18Z, and to the Delmarva by 00Z/Wed. Rain
chances will come to an end from NW to SE Tue evening (lingering
chc PoPs in the SE through about 06-09Z/Wed morning. Drier push
of air will take control after that w/ skies becoming mostly
sunny Wed. A noticeable, though brief, reduction in humidity
will follow for Wed aftn and evening.

Highs will range in the mid-upper 80s SE to the lower 80s NW on
Tue, then mainly in the mid-upper 80s Wed. Lows Tue night will
range fm the mid 60s NW to lower 70s SE, with lows mainly in the
60s Wed night/early Thu. Partly-mostly sunny Thu with highs
mainly 80-85 F as sfc high pressure centered over eastern Canada
and New England ridges SW into the local area.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 355 PM EDT Monday...

Ridge aloft moves across the region the end of the week. A weak
trough aloft will track through the NE CONUS next weekend
resulting in a flattening to the ridge invof mid-Atlantic/SE
states. A cold front is forecast to approach from the NNW Fri
night...then push SE into/across the local area Sat-Sun. Dry wx
w/ a break in the humidity continues Fri. As the cold front
presses into the local area...RA chcs are expected to gradually
increase.

Lows Thu night in the 60s to near 70 F, highs in the m-u80s
Fri. Lows Fri night in the u60s- l70s. Highs Sat in the l-m80s N
to the m-u80s S. Lows Sat night from the m60s N to around 70F
SE. Highs Sun-Mon in the l80s N to the m80s S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 200 AM EDT Monday...

The remnants of Florence combined with a cold front eventually
moving into and acrs the region today thru Tue night, will
result in sctd showers and possible tstms affecting the TAF
sites. Other than isolated IFR Cigs, expect mainly VFR/MVFR
conditions today thru Tue night.

Outlook: Dry weather and mainly VFR conditions finally expected
Wed and Thu.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 400 AM EDT Monday...

Latest observations across the marine area shows southeasterly winds
between 15 and 20 knots as the remnants of Florence continue to the
north and east up the spine of the mountains. Have introduced an SCA
for the Bay this afternoon through 9AM Tuesday morning. Also
retained the SCA for the coastal waters for high seas through 8AM
Tuesday as well. Still expecting a cold front to sweep through the
marine area on Tuesday and Tuesday night with gusty northwesterly
winds in its wake for late Tuesday and into Wednesday morning. At
this point it appears winds will remain below SCA levels but will
have to be monitored in upcoming forecast packages for any
indications for stronger winds across the Bay.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 535 AM EDT Monday...

Gauges and public/spotter observations have indicated elevated
water levels along the Albemarle and Currituck Sounds, and
adjacent rivers. Nuisance soundside flooding early this morning
over low-lying areas has also produced some road closures. This
is likely due to a persistent east wind combined with strong
wave action along the Atlantic coast. This has likely limited
the flow of water through the inlets into the ocean as has
resulted in the rise in water levels in the sounds and adjacent
rivers. Water levels have begun to level off a bit over the past
few hours this morning, so will allow statement to expire this
morning and continue to monitor.

Coastal Flood Advisories no longer in effect for the upper
Bay.However, will need to watch for another round of increasing
tidal departures over the Ches Bay...esp on the lower MD ern
shore (Cambridge/Bishops Head/Crisfield) and around Lewisetta
as wind speeds increase slightly from the SSW this evening.
Current forecast accounts for reaching low end minor thresholds
at Lewisetta/Cambridge/Bishops Head. However, due to marginal
nature of expected impacts during 2nd forecast period, have
held off w/headline for now.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...Flash Flood Watch until 8 PM EDT this evening for VAZ048-
     060>062-064>069-079-080-509>517-519-521.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ650-652-654-
     656-658.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ630>632-
     634.

&&

SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB
LONG TERM...AJB
AVIATION...JAO
MARINE...RHR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
643 PM EDT MON SEP 17 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0417 PM     TORNADO          1 WSW DOWNTOWN RICHMOND 37.53N 77.49W
09/17/2018                   CITY OF RICHMOND   VA   BROADCAST MEDIA

            LARGE TREES REPORTED DOWN FROM APPARENT
            TORNADO. TIMES ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

AJB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
647 PM EDT MON SEP 17 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0340 PM     TORNADO          4 NNW POCAHONTAS STATE  37.43N 77.60W
09/17/2018                   CHESTERFIELD       VA   PUBLIC

            DAMAGE TO A HOME AND TREES KNOCKED DOWN FROM
            APPARENT TORNADO. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.
            REPORT VIA TWITTER.

&&

AJB