Winter Storm Warning 6, NWS Juneau, AK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
513 AM AKST Tue Feb 13 2018

.SHORT TERM.../ Tuesday to Wednesday night / Weather front lying
across the southern half of the panhandle from the southeast Gulf
of Alaska and Pacific to north central British Columbia. Radar
imagery is showing the back edge of the heavier Precipitation is
moving past Frederick Sound early this morning. The main front
should be south of the panhandle by noon, and then just the
residual showers behind the front and associated with a weak
surface and low level upper circulation. Believe that the
rain/snow should be ending for Southeast Alaska in the evening.
High pressure will rebuild over the Gulf of Alaska and a smaller
high over the Yukon Territory.

The Yukon high will swing winds back around to northerly through
the northern panhandle. This should keep the panhandle in the dry
weather through Wednesday night, although model solutions are
trying to bring another wave into to western gulf on Wednesday
night to head towards the panhandle. Presently the forecast models
were having issues locking on to a central solution the runs form
late Monday.

.LONG TERM.../Thursday through Tuesday as of 10 pm Monday/
Made no changes to the longer term due to short term weather
issues. Models continue to struggle with systems for late week,
with recent southward trend of low that moves in for Thu and Thu
night. Stream interaction remains the main issue with this system,
and models often struggle with that until shortly before the
event. Models are suggesting another system will move E across the
gulf Fri, but they have been struggling with this feature as well,
so little confidence in any model solution at this point. After
that, forecast confidence plummets even further due to big
differences in model handling of shortwaves moving across the
area, especially early next week. About the only feature that
appears to be reasonably forecastable is the upper ridge that
forms over the gulf for the weekend that should tend to keep
things on the dry and cool side. All in all, overall confidence in
the forecast is well below average during much of the long term,
except confidence is near average for the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...Marginal ceilings 1000-3000 feet with a few lower
ones this morning of 4 to 8 hundred. Rain and snow also impacting
visibilities around Southeast Alaska between 1 to 5 miles at the
airports. The frontal band is sliding southeast to exit the
panhandle by afternoon, and some residual showers on the north of
the front will be moving SE along the coast associated with a
surface low. Conditions will improve through the morning and
midday with rain/snow ending and clouds lifting to above 3000 ft
by early evening. Perhaps a some isolated patchy fog tonight over
the southern panhandle, but should not be an major impact to air
traffic.

&&

.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PUBLIC...Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM AKST early this morning for
     AKZ025-026.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-021-022-033-041>043-051-052.
     Small Craft Advisory due to Seas for PKZ053.

&&

Bezenek/RWT

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