Gale Warning 69, NWS Juneau, AK

991 
FZAK52 PAJK 131220
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
National Weather Service Juneau AK
320 AM AKST Tue Feb 13 2018

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-140630-
320 AM AKST Tue Feb 13 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A front extending southwest from the panhandle to the south
central gulf will move southeast and exit the area to the south 
on Tuesday afternoon. Weak low pressure will remain over the 
panhandle and eastern gulf through Tuesday night. 

$$

PKZ041-140630-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
320 AM AKST Tue Feb 13 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain early in the morning. 
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft. 
.WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft. W swell. 
.WED NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. W swell. 
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft building to 14 ft. 
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-140630-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
320 AM AKST Tue Feb 13 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain early in the morning. 
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt late. Seas 15 ft. 
.WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft. W swell. 
.WED NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. W swell. 
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft building to 13 ft. 
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-140630-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
320 AM AKST Tue Feb 13 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain early in the morning. 
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft. W swell. 
.WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft. W swell. 
.WED NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. W swell. 
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.SAT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-140630-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
320 AM AKST Tue Feb 13 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain early in the morning. 
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt becoming E late. Seas 13 ft. SW swell. 
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. SW swell. 
.WED NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. SW swell. 
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.FRI...W wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SAT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-140630-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
320 AM AKST Tue Feb 13 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft. 
.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. SW swell. 
.WED...E wind 15 kt becoming W in the afternoon. Seas 8 ft.
SW swell. 
.WED NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. SW swell. 
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SAT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
249 PM AKST Mon Feb 12 2018

.SHORT TERM.../Monday night through Tuesday night/...The threat of
freezing rain has largely passed. Some locations did in fact
report freezing rain and the advisory issued by night shift was
definitely a good call. Have opted to let the advisory for Zone 26
expire on time even though temperatures in Petersburg and Wrangell
remain below freezing. Snow continues to fall there, but will
transition to rain later tonight. Elsewhere, Haines, Gustavus,
Hoonah and the southern zones are all reporting rain as of mid
afternoon. A rain-snow mix is likely occurring in Yakutat.
Besides zone 26, snow continues to fall in Juneau as well. Short
term forecast trend is for all spots except Hyder and White Pass
to transition to rain by tomorrow and a lot of sport will see
overnight lows early this evening with temperatures steady or
slowly rising through the night.

South winds, up to marginal gale force over northern Lynn Canal,
will diminish as the front weakens and moves off. Weak low
pressure remaining over the panhandle and eastern gulf will
restore a northerly pressure gradient tomorrow with sub-small
craft winds on the inside. On the outside, post-frontal
southwesterly small craft and gale force winds will veer
northwesterly tomorrow.

Little to no change made to the short range forecast. Overall
forecast confidence is average.

.LONG TERM.../Wednesday through Monday as of 10 pm Sunday/ Long
range period will start in an active pattern then it appears that
things will quiet down during the latter part of the period. A
flat ridge will be over the EPAC with a shortwave riding through
the ridge into the E gulf Thu/Thu night. This will bring another
low and frontal system into the area. Still some model differences
to resolve on track of main low center. For now, and after coord
with WFO PAFC, went toward WPC/12z EC idea of low tracking toward
the Icy Bay area. 00z models have trended it further S toward the
central panhandle though, so later shifts may need to adjust
this. Another shortwave looks to drop SE into the E gulf for Fri
and Fri night as ridge builds upstream, and this will herald
colder air moving in for the weekend. Ridge looks like it will
remain to the W of the area although will need to watch for any
shortwaves moving through the ridge and interacting with the
colder airmass that will be in place. Ended up using blend of 18z
GFS and 12z EC to handle Wed period, then EC/WPC for Thu through
daytime Fri (to show a stronger system than what WPC had based on
model consensus of a stronger low). From Fri night onward, used
mostly WPC although did use NBM to help adjust temps.

Will start out dry Wed into Wed evening, then as system moves in,
precip threat will increase later Wed night into Thu. Using the
further N low track, ended up with rain reaching further N (with
warmer temps inferred), but if low does track across the central
area like the 00z model runs show, may need to go with lower
temps and more snow over the N. This system should move out later
Thu night and Fri, but upper shortwave diving SE into the E gulf
could bring more precip to the area. Where the most precip occurs
will depend on track of the main vort center. Regardless of precip
occurrence, colder air should follow this system into the area
Fri night and Sat on strong N-NW flow. Looking like increasing
chances for a mostly dry weekend. Toward the end of the period,
the 00z GFS hints at a shortwave moving through the N and E gulf
down front side of the ridge with a threat for precip, while
EC/Canadian suggest any system would stay further offshore. WPC
had chance POPS during this time for a good part of the area,
which is a good compromise.

&

.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind from 9 AM AKST Monday through Monday afternoon for
     AKZ018.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-021-022-031>036-041>043-051-
     052.
     Small Craft Advisory due to Seas for PKZ053.

&&

.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PUBLIC...Winter Weather Advisory until 3 PM AKST this afternoon for
     AKZ025-026.
     Strong Wind until midnight AKST tonight for AKZ018.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ012-042-052.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011-013-021-022-031>036-041-043-051.
     Small Craft Advisory due to Seas for PKZ053.

&&

Fritsch/RWT

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