Storm Warning 56, NWS Juneau, AK

641 
FZAK52 PAJK 150025
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
National Weather Service Juneau AK
325 PM AKST Fri Dec 14 2018

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-151830-
325 PM AKST Fri Dec 14 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A ridge over the eastern gulf will get pushed east into Canada
Friday evening. A large strong storm will move east into the 
central gulf by Saturday spreading storm force winds and high seas
across the gulf through Saturday night. 

$$

PKZ041-151830-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
325 PM AKST Fri Dec 14 2018

...STORM WARNING SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt becoming SE in the evening, then
increasing to 45 kt late. Seas 12 ft building to 17 ft late. W 
swell in the evening. 
.SAT...SE wind 55 kt. Gusts to 70 kt. Seas 26 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SE storm force wind to 50 kt diminishing to
gale to 40 kt late. Seas 25 ft. Rain in the evening, then rain 
showers late. 
.SUN...SE gale to 40 kt. Seas 26 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 22 ft. Rain showers.
.MON...S wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 19 ft. 
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-151830-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
325 PM AKST Fri Dec 14 2018

...STORM WARNING SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt becoming SE in the evening, then
increasing to 45 kt late. Seas 11 ft building to 15 ft late. W
swell in the evening. 
.SAT...SE wind 50 kt. Gusts to 70 kt. Seas 25 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SE storm force wind to 50 kt diminishing to
gale to 40 kt late. Seas 27 ft. Rain.
.SUN...SE gale to 40 kt. Seas 25 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 21 ft. Showers.
.MON...S wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft. 
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft. 
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-151830-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
325 PM AKST Fri Dec 14 2018

...STORM WARNING SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt becoming E 40 kt late. Seas 13 ft. W 
swell in the evening. 
.SAT...E wind 55 kt. Seas 24 ft. Rain in the afternoon. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE storm force wind to 55 kt diminishing to
gale to 40 kt late. Seas 27 ft. Rain.
.SUN...SE gale to 40 kt. Seas 26 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 21 ft. Rain.
.MON...S wind 25 kt becoming E. Seas 16 ft subsiding to 12 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft. 
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-151830-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
325 PM AKST Fri Dec 14 2018

...STORM WARNING SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt becoming E 35 kt late. Seas 12 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 45 kt increasing to 55 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 17 ft building to 24 ft in the afternoon. 
.SAT NIGHT...E storm force wind to 50 kt diminishing to gale
to 40 kt late. Seas 27 ft. Rain.
.SUN...E gale to 45 kt. Seas 25 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 21 ft. Rain.
.MON...SE wind 30 kt becoming E 20 kt. Seas 17 ft subsiding to
12 ft. 
.TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-151830-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
325 PM AKST Fri Dec 14 2018

...STORM WARNING SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt becoming E 40 kt late. Seas 13 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 45 kt increasing to 50 kt in the afternoon. Seas 19
ft building to 24 ft in the afternoon. 
.SAT NIGHT...E storm force wind to 50 kt diminishing to gale
to 40 kt late. Seas 27 ft. Rain.
.SUN...E gale to 45 kt. Seas 24 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...SE gale to 40 kt. Seas 21 ft. Rain.
.MON...SE wind 25 kt becoming E 15 kt. Seas 17 ft subsiding to
12 ft. 
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. 

$$

432 
FZAK52 PAJK 151252
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
National Weather Service Juneau AK
352 AM AKST Sat Dec 15 2018

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-160700-
352 AM AKST Sat Dec 15 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A large strong storm will move east into the central gulf 
Saturday spreading storm force winds and high seas across the gulf
through Saturday night. Winds and seas will gradually diminish in
the wake of the front Sunday. 

$$

PKZ041-160700-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
352 AM AKST Sat Dec 15 2018

...STORM WARNING THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TODAY...SE wind 45 kt increasing to 55 kt. Gusts to 70 kt. Seas 
16 ft building to 26 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 55 kt diminishing to 40 kt late. Seas 27 ft.
Rain in the evening, then showers late. 
.SUN...S gale to 35 kt. Seas 26 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 23 ft. Showers.
.MON...S wind 30 kt becoming SE gale to 40 kt. Seas 16 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 30 kt. Seas 22 ft. 
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 18 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-160700-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
352 AM AKST Sat Dec 15 2018

...STORM WARNING THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TODAY...SE wind 40 kt increasing to 55 kt. Gusts to 70 kt. Seas
14 ft building to 26 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 55 kt diminishing to 40 kt late. Seas 28 ft.
Rain.
.SUN...SE gale to 45 kt. Seas 25 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...S gale to 35 kt. Seas 22 ft. Showers.
.MON...S wind 25 kt becoming SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 30 kt. Seas 22 ft. 
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 19 ft subsiding to 15 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-160700-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
352 AM AKST Sat Dec 15 2018

...STORM WARNING THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TODAY...E wind 40 kt increasing to 55 kt. Gusts to 70 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 13 ft building to 25 ft. Rain in the afternoon. 
.TONIGHT...SE wind 55 kt diminishing to 45 kt late. Seas 28 ft.
Rain.
.SUN...SE gale to 40 kt. Seas 25 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...S gale to 35 kt. Seas 21 ft. Rain showers. 
.MON...S wind 25 kt becoming E. Seas 14 ft. 
.TUE...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 21 ft. 
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft subsiding to 13 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-160700-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
352 AM AKST Sat Dec 15 2018

...STORM WARNING THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TODAY...E wind 35 kt increasing to 50 kt. Seas 12 ft building to
25 ft. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 50 kt diminishing in the evening. Seas 28 ft. 
Rain.
.SUN...SE gale to 40 kt. Seas 25 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...SE gale to 40 kt. Seas 21 ft. Rain.
.MON...S wind 25 kt becoming E. Seas 14 ft. 
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft. 
.WED...S wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt. Seas 13 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-160700-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
352 AM AKST Sat Dec 15 2018

...STORM WARNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...E wind 35 kt increasing to 50 kt in the afternoon. Seas 
14 ft building to 25 ft. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 45 kt. Seas 27 ft. Rain.
.SUN...SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 24 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...SE gale to 40 kt. Seas 21 ft. Rain showers. 
.MON...S wind 20 kt becoming E. Seas 15 ft subsiding to 11 ft.
.TUE...E wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.WED...S wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. 

$$

819 
FZAK52 PAJK 160038
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
National Weather Service Juneau AK
338 PM AKST Sat Dec 15 2018

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-161845-
338 PM AKST Sat Dec 15 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A large strong storm in the central gulf will continue to bring
high winds and seas across the gulf through Saturday night. Winds
and seas will gradually diminish as the storm weakens and moves 
north through Monday. 

$$

PKZ041-161845-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
338 PM AKST Sat Dec 15 2018

...STORM WARNING THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 60 kt diminishing to 40 kt late. Seas 28 ft.
Rain in the evening, then showers and slight chance of
thunderstorms late. 
.SUN...S wind 35 kt. Seas 26 ft. Showers and slight chance of
thunderstorms. 
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft. Showers in the evening.
Slight chance of thunderstorms. Showers late. 
.MON...S wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft. Showers.
.MON NIGHT...SE gale to 40 kt. Seas 20 ft. Showers.
.TUE...S wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft. 
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 18 ft. 
.THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 16 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-161845-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
338 PM AKST Sat Dec 15 2018

...STORM WARNING THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 55 kt diminishing to 40 kt late. Seas 29 ft.
Rain then rain showers and slight chance of thunderstorms late.
.SUN...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 26 ft. Rain showers and slight
chance of thunderstorms. 
.SUN NIGHT...S gale to 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt late. Seas
22 ft subsiding to 17 ft late. Showers and slight chance of
thunderstorms. 
.MON...S wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft. S swell. Showers.
.MON NIGHT...SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 19 ft. Showers.
.TUE...S wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft. 
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 19 ft subsiding to 15 ft. 
.THU...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 14 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-161845-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
338 PM AKST Sat Dec 15 2018

...STORM WARNING THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 50 kt diminishing to 40 kt late. Seas 29 ft. 
Rain.
.SUN...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 26 ft. Rain showers and slight chance 
of thunderstorms.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft. Rain showers and slight
chance of thunderstorms. 
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft. S swell. Rain showers. 
.MON NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain showers. 
.TUE...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft. 
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft subsiding to 13 ft. 
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-161845-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
338 PM AKST Sat Dec 15 2018

...STORM WARNING THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...E wind 50 kt diminishing to 40 kt late. Seas 28 ft. 
Rain.
.SUN...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 26 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 20 ft. Rain showers and
slight chance of thunderstorms. 
.MON...S wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain showers. 
.MON NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. S swell. Rain showers. 
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.WED...S wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.THU...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-161845-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
338 PM AKST Sat Dec 15 2018

...STORM WARNING THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...E wind 50 kt diminishing to 40 kt in the evening. Seas
28 ft. Rain.
.SUN...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 25 ft. Rain showers and slight chance 
of thunderstorms in the afternoon. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE gale to 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt late. Seas
20 ft. Rain showers and slight chance of thunderstorms. 
.MON...S wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft. S swell. 
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain showers. 
.TUE...E wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.WED...S wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.THU...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 

$$

802 
FZAK52 PAJK 161318
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
National Weather Service Juneau AK
418 AM AKST Sun Dec 16 2018

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-170730-
418 AM AKST Sun Dec 16 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A large strong storm in the central gulf will continue to bring
high winds and seas across the gulf through Sunday night. Winds 
and seas will gradually diminish as the storm weakens and moves 
north through Monday. 

$$

PKZ041-170730-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
418 AM AKST Sun Dec 16 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 26 ft. Showers and slight chance of
thunderstorms. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 21 ft. Showers and slight chance of
thunderstorms. 
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas
15 ft. Slight chance of thunderstorms in the morning, then
showers in the afternoon. 
.MON NIGHT...SE gale to 40 kt. Seas 20 ft. Showers.
.TUE...S wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft. 
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 18 ft. 
.THU...W wind 20 kt becoming S. Seas 17 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-170730-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
418 AM AKST Sun Dec 16 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TODAY...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 25 ft. Showers and slight chance of
thunderstorms. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 20 ft. Showers and slight chance of
thunderstorms. 
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft. Slight chance of
thunderstorms in the morning. 
.MON NIGHT...SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 19 ft. Showers.
.TUE...S wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft. 
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 19 ft subsiding to 15 ft. 
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-170730-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
418 AM AKST Sun Dec 16 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TODAY...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 24 ft. Rain. Slight chance of 
thunderstorms.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 20 ft. Rain showers and slight
chance of thunderstorms. 
.MON...S wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. SW swell. Slight chance of
thunderstorms in the morning. Rain showers. 
.MON NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain showers. 
.TUE...S wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft. 
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft subsiding to 13 ft. 
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-170730-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
418 AM AKST Sun Dec 16 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 24 ft. Rain. Slight chance of 
thunderstorms. 
.TONIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft. Rain showers and slight
chance of thunderstorms. 
.MON...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft. S swell. Slight chance of
thunderstorms in the morning. Rain showers. 
.MON NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain showers. 
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.WED...S wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.THU...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-170730-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
418 AM AKST Sun Dec 16 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 35 kt. Seas 25 ft. Rain. Slight chance of 
thunderstorms. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 20 ft. Rain showers and slight 
chance of thunderstorms. 
.MON...W wind 10 kt. Seas 14 ft. SE swell in the morning.
Slight chance of thunderstorms. 
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain showers. 
.TUE...E wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.WED...S wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.THU...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
253 PM AKST Thu Dec 13 2018

.SHORT TERM.../Through Saturday night/ The gale force low over the
central panhandle is on its way out, but not before it battered
the outer coast with wind. Cape Spencer and Cape Decision both saw
sustained winds well into storm force with gusts as high as 76 kt
(May have been some terrain effects increasing wind speeds there).
Other places like Sitka and Elfin Cove saw brief gusts as high as
48 kt at one point today. This storm also brought some
precipitation to the panhandle with areas from Hoonah and Juneau
northward cold enough to see up to 2 inches of snow today.

Into tonight that storm will continue to move into Canada with any
remaining winds diminishing through the evening. Behind it
showers are the rule of the day. There is an area of enhanced
showers associated with an area of low level vorticity out in the
gulf that is also producing an occasional lightning strike. That
will be moving into the northern panhandle and gulf coast
overnight spreading more showers and possible thunderstorms as it
comes. The result is a persistence of scattered snow and rain
showers (with slight chance of thunder for the outer coast)
through the night before it finally dissipates tomorrow morning.
Where it is cold enough for snow, accumulation expected to be
around 1 to 2 inches or less.

Friday, is expected to be dry but cold as an area of cooler air
and less cloud cover moves in. Temperatures may not get out of
the low to mid 30s for highs, with overnight lows on Fri night
dropping below freezing.

Forecast becomes active again into Sat as a large storm force low
moves into the central gulf. Wide spread storm force winds remain
in the forecast for the gulf with winds in the panhandle increasing
through the day Sat as the associated from moves inland. Precip
will also be returning and with the cold air in place in the
panhandle many places may start as snow for ptype. Some
uncertainty on how long the cold air will hang on before it is
pushed out by the warm air advection from the system and changes
everything over the rain. Which in turn will affect snow
accumulation forecasts. Northern inner channels in particular will
have to be watched as depending on how fast the warm air moves in,
snow totals in a certain area could range from nothing to a few
inches.

Forecast confidence is moderate to high as guidance is in good
agreement today. Gfs and Nam mainly used for guidance.

.LONG TERM.../Saturday through Thursday as of 10 pm Wednesday/
Long range period will start out stormy with a very large low over
the gulf and NE PAC Sat that moves N and weakens Sun. Model
agreement begins to break down after Sun, but they show potential
for more strong systems affecting the area during Mon-Thu with
long wave trof setting up between 150 and 160W. Ended up using
the 18z GFS to handle Sat, then went with mainly latest WPC from
Sun onward.

Increased winds somewhat with the Sat-Sun system. Raised the max
wind band ahead of the occluded front to 55 kt (with the GFS model
suggesting 60-65 kt but it was strongest model) for Sat into Sat
night. Raised POPS to categorical for most areas ahead of the
front for Sat into Sun. May still see some snow over mainly the N
half of the area as some colder air will be in place as initial
precip arrives Sat, but a warm up from the S should occur Sat
night into Sun, diminishing the snow threat over the central area.
Still looks fairly mild with above average temps continuing into
at least early next week, and active pattern will keep precip
threat on the higher side as well, although the main precip threat
may end up over the S half of the area during early to middle of
next week. Wind will be the main hazard that will need to be
monitored with these systems, with a threat for accumulating snow
Sat into Sat night over the N half.

&&

.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind until 3 PM AKST this afternoon for AKZ023-026.
     Strong Wind until 6 PM AKST this evening for AKZ022.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ022-033-035-042-043.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ021-031-032-034-036-041-051-052.
     Small Craft Advisory due to Seas for PKZ053.

&&

EAL/RWT

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