Storm Warning 45, NWS Juneau, AK

061 
FZAK67 PAJK 150023
OFFAJK

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Juneau AK
323 PM AKST Fri Dec 14 2018

Offshore waters forecast for Gulf of Alaska east of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ398-151830-
323 PM AKST Fri Dec 14 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A ridge over the eastern gulf will get pushed east into Canada
Friday evening. A large strong storm will move east into the 
central gulf by Saturday spreading storm force winds and high seas
across the gulf through Saturday night. 

$$

PKZ310-151830-
Gulf of Alaska North of 55 Degrees North and East of 144 Degrees
West-
323 PM AKST Fri Dec 14 2018

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt becoming SE 55 kt late. Seas 14 ft 
building to 18 ft late. 
.SAT...SE wind 55 kt. Seas 23 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SE gale to 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt late.
Seas 26 ft. Rain in the evening, then rain showers late. 
.SUN...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 23 ft. Showers.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft. S swell. Rain showers 
in the evening. 
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. 

$$

697 
FZAK67 PAJK 151251
OFFAJK

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Juneau AK
351 AM AKST Sat Dec 15 2018

Offshore waters forecast for Gulf of Alaska east of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ398-160700-
351 AM AKST Sat Dec 15 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A large strong storm will move east into the central gulf 
Saturday spreading storm force winds and high seas across the gulf
through Saturday night. Winds and seas will gradually diminish in
the wake of the front Sunday. 

$$

PKZ310-160700-
Gulf of Alaska North of 55 Degrees North and East of 144 Degrees
West-
351 AM AKST Sat Dec 15 2018

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 55 kt. Seas 26 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 45 kt diminishing to 30 kt late. Seas 27 ft.
Rain in the evening, then rain showers late. 
.SUN...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 22 ft. Rain showers. 
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft. S swell. Showers in the
evening. 
.MON...E wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.TUE...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft. 
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. 

$$

652 
FZAK67 PAJK 160028
OFFAJK

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Juneau AK
328 PM AKST Sat Dec 15 2018

Offshore waters forecast for Gulf of Alaska east of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ398-161830-
328 PM AKST Sat Dec 15 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A large strong storm in the central gulf will continue to bring
high winds and seas across the gulf through Saturday night. Winds
and seas will gradually diminish as the storm weakens and moves 
north through Monday. 

$$

PKZ310-161830-
Gulf of Alaska North of 55 Degrees North and East of 144 Degrees
West-
328 PM AKST Sat Dec 15 2018

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 50 kt diminishing to 30 kt late. Seas 31 ft. 
Rain showers and slight chance of thunderstorms. 
.SUN...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 23 ft. Rain showers and slight
chance of thunderstorms. 
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft. S swell. Rain showers
in the evening. Slight chance of thunderstorms. 
.MON...SW wind 15 kt becoming SE in the afternoon. Seas 13 ft.
S swell. 
.MON NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. SE swell. Showers late.
.TUE...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. 

$$

686 
FZAK67 PAJK 161318
OFFAJK

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Juneau AK
418 AM AKST Sun Dec 16 2018

Offshore waters forecast for Gulf of Alaska east of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ398-170730-
418 AM AKST Sun Dec 16 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A large strong storm in the central gulf will continue to bring
high winds and seas across the gulf through Sunday night. Winds 
and seas will gradually diminish as the storm weakens and moves 
north through Monday. 

$$

PKZ310-170730-
Gulf of Alaska North of 55 Degrees North and East of 144 Degrees
West-
418 AM AKST Sun Dec 16 2018

...GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 35 kt decreasing to 25 kt this afternoon. Seas 
23 ft. Slight chance of thunderstorms. Rain showers. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 18 ft subsiding to 14 ft late. SE
swell. Slight chance of thunderstorms. 
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft. S swell. 
.MON NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. SE swell. Showers late.
.TUE...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
253 PM AKST Thu Dec 13 2018

.SHORT TERM.../Through Saturday night/ The gale force low over the
central panhandle is on its way out, but not before it battered
the outer coast with wind. Cape Spencer and Cape Decision both saw
sustained winds well into storm force with gusts as high as 76 kt
(May have been some terrain effects increasing wind speeds there).
Other places like Sitka and Elfin Cove saw brief gusts as high as
48 kt at one point today. This storm also brought some
precipitation to the panhandle with areas from Hoonah and Juneau
northward cold enough to see up to 2 inches of snow today.

Into tonight that storm will continue to move into Canada with any
remaining winds diminishing through the evening. Behind it
showers are the rule of the day. There is an area of enhanced
showers associated with an area of low level vorticity out in the
gulf that is also producing an occasional lightning strike. That
will be moving into the northern panhandle and gulf coast
overnight spreading more showers and possible thunderstorms as it
comes. The result is a persistence of scattered snow and rain
showers (with slight chance of thunder for the outer coast)
through the night before it finally dissipates tomorrow morning.
Where it is cold enough for snow, accumulation expected to be
around 1 to 2 inches or less.

Friday, is expected to be dry but cold as an area of cooler air
and less cloud cover moves in. Temperatures may not get out of
the low to mid 30s for highs, with overnight lows on Fri night
dropping below freezing.

Forecast becomes active again into Sat as a large storm force low
moves into the central gulf. Wide spread storm force winds remain
in the forecast for the gulf with winds in the panhandle increasing
through the day Sat as the associated from moves inland. Precip
will also be returning and with the cold air in place in the
panhandle many places may start as snow for ptype. Some
uncertainty on how long the cold air will hang on before it is
pushed out by the warm air advection from the system and changes
everything over the rain. Which in turn will affect snow
accumulation forecasts. Northern inner channels in particular will
have to be watched as depending on how fast the warm air moves in,
snow totals in a certain area could range from nothing to a few
inches.

Forecast confidence is moderate to high as guidance is in good
agreement today. Gfs and Nam mainly used for guidance.

.LONG TERM.../Saturday through Thursday as of 10 pm Wednesday/
Long range period will start out stormy with a very large low over
the gulf and NE PAC Sat that moves N and weakens Sun. Model
agreement begins to break down after Sun, but they show potential
for more strong systems affecting the area during Mon-Thu with
long wave trof setting up between 150 and 160W. Ended up using
the 18z GFS to handle Sat, then went with mainly latest WPC from
Sun onward.

Increased winds somewhat with the Sat-Sun system. Raised the max
wind band ahead of the occluded front to 55 kt (with the GFS model
suggesting 60-65 kt but it was strongest model) for Sat into Sat
night. Raised POPS to categorical for most areas ahead of the
front for Sat into Sun. May still see some snow over mainly the N
half of the area as some colder air will be in place as initial
precip arrives Sat, but a warm up from the S should occur Sat
night into Sun, diminishing the snow threat over the central area.
Still looks fairly mild with above average temps continuing into
at least early next week, and active pattern will keep precip
threat on the higher side as well, although the main precip threat
may end up over the S half of the area during early to middle of
next week. Wind will be the main hazard that will need to be
monitored with these systems, with a threat for accumulating snow
Sat into Sat night over the N half.

&&

.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind until 3 PM AKST this afternoon for AKZ023-026.
     Strong Wind until 6 PM AKST this evening for AKZ022.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ022-033-035-042-043.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ021-031-032-034-036-041-051-052.
     Small Craft Advisory due to Seas for PKZ053.

&&

EAL/RWT

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