Storm Warning 55, NWS Juneau, AK

631 
FZAK51 PAJK 140014
CWFAJK

Coastal Waters Forecast FOR Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
314 PM AKST Thu Dec 13 2018

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 nm

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ098-141800-
314 PM AKST Thu Dec 13 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
A weak trough of low pressure in the central gulf will move
north into the northern gulf coast through Friday morning.
Meanwhile a ridge will be building over the eastern gulf. A
large strong storm will move east into the central gulf by
Saturday.  

$$

PKZ011-141800-
Glacier Bay-
314 PM AKST Thu Dec 13 2018

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt becoming SE late. Seas 3 ft in the
evening then 2 ft or less. 
.FRI...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 10 kt becoming N late. Seas building to
3 ft late. 
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Snow and rain. 
.SUN...N wind 15 kt becoming SE. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 10 kt becoming N. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ012-141800-
Northern Lynn Canal-
314 PM AKST Thu Dec 13 2018

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt becoming N 10 kt late. Gusts to 35 kt in
the evening. Seas 4 ft in the evening then 2 ft or less. 
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...N gale to 35 kt. Gusts to 50 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Gusts to 45 kt. Seas 6 ft. Snow.
.SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas building to 3 ft. 
.TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

PKZ013-141800-
Southern Lynn Canal-
314 PM AKST Thu Dec 13 2018

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt becoming N 10 kt late. Seas 4 ft in the
evening then 2 ft or less. 
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas building to 4 ft late. 
.SAT...N gale to 35 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Snow and rain. 
.SUN...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

PKZ021-141800-
Icy Strait-
314 PM AKST Thu Dec 13 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt becoming E 15 kt late. Seas 6 ft
subsiding late. Highest winds and seas W of Point Adolphus. Rain 
and snow showers in the evening.
.FRI...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...E gale to 35 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain and snow. 
.SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

PKZ022-141800-
Cross Sound-
314 PM AKST Thu Dec 13 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...W wind 40 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the evening, then
becoming E 15 kt late. Seas 16 ft subsiding to 12 ft late. Rain
showers. Slight chance of thunderstorms late. 
.FRI...E wind 10 kt. Seas 10 ft. S swell. Slight chance of
thunderstorms in the morning. 
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt late. Seas 9 ft.
S swell. 
.SAT...E gale to 40 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...E gale to 40 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.SUN...E wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.MON...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. 

$$

PKZ031-141800-
Stephens Passage-
314 PM AKST Thu Dec 13 2018

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt becoming SE 10 kt. Seas 4 ft in the
evening then 2 ft or less. 
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas building to 3 ft in the afternoon. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt late. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...NE wind 30 kt. Gusts to 45 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Gusts to 45 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain
and snow. 
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 15 kt becoming NE. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE...N wind 15 kt becoming SE. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ032-141800-
Northern Chatham Strait-
314 PM AKST Thu Dec 13 2018

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt becoming S in the evening. Gusts to 35 kt
early in the evening. Seas 4 ft in the evening then 2 ft or less.
Snow showers in the evening. 
.FRI...NW wind 10 kt becoming NE in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft
or less. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Gusts to 35 kt late. Seas building
to 4 ft late. 
.SAT...NE wind 30 kt. Gusts to 45 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Gusts to 45 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.SUN...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 15 kt becoming NE. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt becoming SE. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

PKZ033-141800-
Southern Chatham Strait-
314 PM AKST Thu Dec 13 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt diminishing to 10 kt late. Seas 4 ft in 
the evening then 2 ft or less. Near ocean entrances, seas 16 ft 
subsiding to 11 ft late. Slight chance of thunderstorms late. 
.FRI...NW wind 15 kt becoming NE in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft,
except 10 ft near ocean entrances. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt late. Gusts to
40 kt late. Seas 4 ft, except 8 ft near ocean entrances. 
.SAT...SE gale to 35 kt. Gusts to 50 kt. Seas 7 ft, except
17 ft near ocean entrances. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SE gale to 40 kt. Gusts to 55 kt. Seas 8 ft,
except 18 ft near ocean entrances. Rain.
.SUN...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 20 kt becoming NE. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt becoming SE. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

PKZ034-141800-
Frederick Sound-
314 PM AKST Thu Dec 13 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt becoming S 10 kt late. Seas 5 ft in the 
evening then 2 ft or less. 
.FRI...NW wind 10 kt becoming NE in the afternoon. Seas
building to 3 ft in the afternoon. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Gusts to 35 kt late. Seas building
to 4 ft late. 
.SAT...E gale to 35 kt. Gusts to 50 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Gusts to 50 kt, except 45 kt out
of interior passes. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

PKZ035-141800-
Sumner Strait-
314 PM AKST Thu Dec 13 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt becoming S 15 kt in the evening, then 
becoming N late. Gusts to 40 kt early in the evening, Seas 5 ft 
in the evening then 2 ft or less. Near ocean entrances, seas 6 ft.
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Gusts to 35 kt late. Seas building
to 4 ft late. 
.SAT...E gale to 40 kt. Gusts to 55 kt, except 50 kt out of
interior passes. Seas 8 ft, except 11 ft near ocean entrances.
Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...E gale to 40 kt. Gusts to 60 kt, except 50 kt
out of interior passes. Seas 8 ft, except 12 ft near ocean
entrances. Rain.
.SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

PKZ036-141800-
Clarence Strait-
314 PM AKST Thu Dec 13 2018

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt becoming NW late. Seas 3 ft. Near ocean 
entrances, seas 9 ft subsiding to 5 ft late. 
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt late. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...SE gale to 40 kt. Seas 9 ft, except 12 ft near ocean
entrances. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 10 ft, except 13 ft near
ocean entrances. Rain.
.SUN...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Juneau AK
554 AM AKST Thu Dec 13 2018

.SHORT TERM...Active weather Thursday as a strong low moves east
across the panhandle and to Canada. Expect the low to move through
the panhandle and pull away by Thursday night. A small trailing
wave/trough will move across the northern gulf Thursday night while
a ridge of high pressure is built up over the gulf and pacific ahead
of the next large and strong low south of the Aleutians.

The low today has some stronger shower activity which had
continued some lightning with the bigger cells. That should be going
away as cooler air moves into the lower levels around the low. The
line of bigger shower cells is expected to lift north to the north
central panhandle. The rain snow line should be just north of that
area as the northern inner channels stay northerly and try to filter
some cooler air in. Although when the rain increases could see that
pull snow down to the surface with snow melt cooling too. The back
side of the low complex should move into the panhandle through the
day with a strong westerly punch of surface wind. Rain or snow
should continue through the day.

On Friday most of the precipitation will have tapered off over the
land areas. The small exception being of west of Yakutat, and that
area dries out by Friday night too. This will be in response to the
powerful low moving into the gulf by Saturday, more on that in the
long term period.

.LONG TERM.../Saturday through Thursday as of 10 pm Wednesday/
Long range period will start out stormy with a very large low over
the gulf and NE PAC Sat that moves N and weakens Sun. Model
agreement begins to break down after Sun, but they show potential
for more strong systems affecting the area during Mon-Thu with
long wave trof setting up between 150 and 160W. Ended up using
the 18z GFS to handle Sat, then went with mainly latest WPC from
Sun onward.

Increased winds somewhat with the Sat-Sun system. Raised the max
wind band ahead of the occluded front to 55 kt (with the GFS model
suggesting 60-65 kt but it was strongest model) for Sat into Sat
night. Raised POPS to categorical for most areas ahead of the
front for Sat into Sun. May still see some snow over mainly the N
half of the area as some colder air will be in place as initial
precip arrives Sat, but a warm up from the S should occur Sat
night into Sun, diminishing the snow threat over the central area.
Still looks fairly mild with above average temps continuing into
at least early next week, and active pattern will keep precip
threat on the higher side as well, although the main precip threat
may end up over the S half of the area during early to middle of
next week. Wind will be the main hazard that will need to be
monitored with these systems, with a threat for accumulating snow
Sat into Sat night over the N half.

&&

.AVIATION...Wind sheer is prevalent in the forecast today as a
strong low moves inland with gusty winds in the lower levels and
across the ridge tops. A brisk westerly wind will be moving in
behind the low to the coast through the morning. Cloud ceilings are
1000 to 3000 feet over the southern two thirds do to showers pushing
into the panhandle as well.

&&

.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind until 3 PM AKST this afternoon for AKZ026.
     Strong Wind until noon AKST today for AKZ027.
     Strong Wind from noon AKST today through this afternoon for
     AKZ022.
     Strong Wind from noon today to 3 PM AKST this afternoon for
     AKZ023.
     Strong Wind from 3 PM AKST this afternoon through this afternoon
     for AKZ020.
MARINE...Storm Warning for PKZ042.
     Gale Warning for PKZ021-022-033-035-041-043-051.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ013-031-032-034-036-052.
     Small Craft Advisory due to Seas for PKZ053.

&&

Bezenek/RWT

Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau