Storm Warning 53, NWS Juneau, AK

076 
FZAK52 PAJK 131305
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
National Weather Service Juneau AK
405 AM AKST Thu Dec 13 2018

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-140715-
405 AM AKST Thu Dec 13 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A weakening low over the southern panhandle will move into
Canada this afternoon. A weak trough of low pressure will move
north into the southern panhandle by Friday morning. Outlook. A
large strong storm move will east into the western  gulf by
Saturday morning.   

$$

PKZ041-140715-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
405 AM AKST Thu Dec 13 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...W wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
28 ft. Rain showers early in the morning. Slight chance of
thunderstorms early in the morning. 
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 18 ft. W swell in the evening. 
.FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft. W swell. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE storm force wind to 50 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain.
.SAT...SE storm force wind to 55 kt. Seas 25 ft. 
.SUN...S gale to 35 kt. Seas 25 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-140715-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
405 AM AKST Thu Dec 13 2018

...STORM WARNING THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...NW wind 40 kt increasing to 50 kt in the morning, then
becoming W 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 26 ft. Rain showers and
slight chance of thunderstorms early in the morning. 
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 19 ft subsiding to 15 ft late. W
swell. 
.FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft. W swell. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE gale to 45 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.SAT...SE storm force wind to 55 kt. Seas 26 ft. 
.SUN...SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 24 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-140715-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
405 AM AKST Thu Dec 13 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...N wind 25 kt becoming W 35 kt. Seas 19 ft building to
23 ft. Rain showers early in the morning. 
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 14 ft. W swell. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE gale to 40 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.SAT...SE storm force wind to 50 kt. Seas 26 ft. 
.SUN...SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 24 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-140715-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
405 AM AKST Thu Dec 13 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain and snow showers early in
the morning. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft. SW swell. Snow showers late.
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. SW swell. Snow showers in the
morning. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.SAT...E storm force wind to 55 kt. Seas 26 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 30 kt. Seas 22 ft. 
.MON...E wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-140715-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
405 AM AKST Thu Dec 13 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft. Snow showers in the evening,
then rain and snow showers late. 
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. SW swell. Snow showers in the
morning. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE gale to 40 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.SAT...E storm force wind to 50 kt. Seas 27 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 30 kt. Seas 24 ft subsiding to 19 ft. 
.MON...E wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. 

$$

534 
FZAK52 PAJK 131332 CCA
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Juneau AK
432 AM AKST Thu Dec 13 2018

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-140715-
432 AM AKST Thu Dec 13 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A weakening low over the southern panhandle will move into
Canada this afternoon. A weak trough of low pressure will move
north into the southern panhandle by Friday morning. Outlook. A
large strong storm will move east into the western gulf by 
Saturday morning. 

$$

PKZ041-140715-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
432 AM AKST Thu Dec 13 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...W wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
28 ft. Rain showers early in the morning. Slight chance of
thunderstorms early in the morning. 
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 18 ft. W swell in the evening. 
.FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft. W swell. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE storm force wind to 50 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain.
.SAT...SE storm force wind to 55 kt. Seas 25 ft. 
.SUN...S gale to 35 kt. Seas 25 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-140715-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
432 AM AKST Thu Dec 13 2018

...STORM WARNING THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...NW wind 40 kt increasing to 50 kt in the morning, then
becoming W 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 26 ft. Rain showers and
slight chance of thunderstorms early in the morning. 
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 19 ft subsiding to 15 ft late. W
swell. 
.FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft. W swell. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE gale to 45 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.SAT...SE storm force wind to 55 kt. Seas 26 ft. 
.SUN...SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 24 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-140715-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
432 AM AKST Thu Dec 13 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...N wind 25 kt becoming W 35 kt. Seas 19 ft building to
23 ft. Rain showers early in the morning. 
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 14 ft. W swell. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE gale to 40 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.SAT...SE storm force wind to 50 kt. Seas 26 ft. 
.SUN...SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 24 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-140715-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
432 AM AKST Thu Dec 13 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain and snow showers early in
the morning. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft. SW swell. Snow showers late.
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. SW swell. Snow showers in the
morning. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.SAT...E storm force wind to 55 kt. Seas 26 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 30 kt. Seas 22 ft. 
.MON...E wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-140715-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
432 AM AKST Thu Dec 13 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft. Snow showers in the evening,
then rain and snow showers late. 
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. SW swell. Snow showers in the
morning. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE gale to 40 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.SAT...E storm force wind to 50 kt. Seas 27 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 30 kt. Seas 24 ft subsiding to 19 ft. 
.MON...E wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. 

$$

859 
FZAK52 PAJK 140014
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
National Weather Service Juneau AK
314 PM AKST Thu Dec 13 2018

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-141815-
314 PM AKST Thu Dec 13 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A weak trough of low pressure in the central gulf will move
north into the northern gulf coast through Friday morning.
Meanwhile a ridge will be building over the eastern gulf. A
large strong storm will move east into the central gulf by
Saturday.  

$$

PKZ041-141815-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
314 PM AKST Thu Dec 13 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Higher gusts this evening north part. 
Seas 22 ft subsiding to 16 ft late. Slight chance of 
thunderstorms. 
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. W swell. Slight chance of
thunderstorms in the morning. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt increasing to storm force wind to
50 kt late. Seas 12 ft building to 17 ft late. W swell in the
evening. 
.SAT...SE storm force wind to 55 kt. Gusts to 70 kt. Seas
27 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SE storm force wind to 50 kt. Seas 26 ft. Rain.
.SUN...S gale to 35 kt. Seas 25 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft. 
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 18 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-141815-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
314 PM AKST Thu Dec 13 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt becoming NW 20 kt late. Seas 21 ft
subsiding to 16 ft late. Slight chance of thunderstorms. 
.FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft. W swell. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt increasing to gale to 45 kt late.
Seas 14 ft. W swell in the evening. 
.SAT...SE storm force wind to 55 kt. Gusts to 70 kt. Seas
27 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SE storm force wind to 50 kt. Seas 27 ft. Rain.
.SUN...SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 24 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft. 
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt becoming SW. Seas 18 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-141815-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
314 PM AKST Thu Dec 13 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...W wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt. Seas 20 ft
subsiding to 15 ft late. Slight chance of thunderstorms. 
.FRI...SW wind 15 kt becoming SE in the afternoon. Seas 13 ft.
W swell. Slight chance of thunderstorms in the morning. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt becoming E gale to 40 kt late. Seas
13 ft. 
.SAT...E storm force wind to 55 kt. Seas 27 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SE storm force wind to 55 kt. Seas 28 ft. Rain.
.SUN...SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 24 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-141815-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
314 PM AKST Thu Dec 13 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft. Showers and slight chance 
of thunderstorms. 
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft. SW swell. Slight chance of
thunderstorms. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt becoming E gale to 35 kt late. Seas
12 ft. 
.SAT...E storm force wind to 55 kt. Seas 26 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...E storm force wind to 50 kt. Seas 28 ft. Rain.
.SUN...E wind 30 kt. Seas 22 ft. 
.MON...E wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-141815-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
314 PM AKST Thu Dec 13 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt becoming S 25 kt late. Seas 15 ft. Rain 
showers with possible snow showers. Slight chance of thunderstorms
late. 
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. SW swell. Snow and rain showers 
in the morning. Slight chance of thunderstorms. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt becoming E gale to 40 kt late. Seas
14 ft. 
.SAT...E storm force wind to 50 kt. Seas 26 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...E storm force wind to 50 kt. Seas 28 ft. Rain.
.SUN...E wind 30 kt. Seas 24 ft subsiding to 19 ft. 
.MON...E wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
402 PM AKST Wed Dec 12 2018

.SHORT TERM.../Through Thursday night/...The next in a series of
storm force lows will cross the eastern gulf tonight and come
ashore over southern Baranof Island early Thursday morning. The
low is forecast to weaken overnight, thus no high wind warnings
have been issued for the central or southern outer coast. Strong
wind gusts in excess of 40 mph are, however, expected for Prince
of Wales Island with emphasis on those locations vulnerable to a
west or northwest wind. Strong wind gusts in the vicinity of
Clarence Strait as well as downtown Juneau have been blowing all
day, but are expected to diminish later this evening. Winds
across Southeast Alaska forecast to diminish significantly on
Thursday night. The low will generate seas from 20 to 30 feet over
the southern half of the eastern gulf tonight with seas 10 to 20
feet for the northern half. Peak conditions expected to occur
before morning, and like the winds, will subside somewhat through
Thursday night.

Showers associated with the storm are forecast to produce snowfall
tonight through tomorrow mid afternoon with accumulations of up to
3 inches tonight and another 3 inches tomorrow for some locations.
Highest amounts forecast in Hoonah, Juneau, Petersburg, and Hyder.
Not advisory amounts, but possibly impactful because of their
occurrence overnight. A cooling trend will extend overnight lows
below freezing all the way down to the Dixon Entrance by Thursday
night, but by then, forecast PoP and QPF run out, so no meaningful
accumulations, if any at all, for the southern inner channels or
southern outer coast.

.LONG TERM...Friday through Tuesday/...Active and generally stormy
weather pattern for the long term period. Deep long wave trough
will exist at the start of the period over the eastern gulf with a
strong closed low likely existing to our south. Models are
struggling a bit with interaction between northern and southern
stream on Friday and thus with how far north precipitation from
this system will get. Thus elected to make minimal changes to
Friday at this time. Should the US models be correct, it will
likely be more clear and dry than our forecast currently depicts
with deep northerly flow promoting some outflow over the inside
waters.

Any clearing on Friday into Friday night will be short lived as
all guidance indicates the reinforcement of the deep long wave
trough over the Gulf through early next week. This will lead to
the return of southerly flow over the Panhandle and warmer,
wetter conditions. This pattern will also likely spawn one or two
deep surface lows lifting northward into the Gulf bringing more
strong winds and heavier precipitation. Some over-running snow
will be possible ahead of the first system on Saturday, however
with ridging building again in BC, there will be no mechanism to
keep continental air in place once the residual cooler, drier air
gets mixed out. Thus by Sunday into early next week, expect any
snow to be confined to the far north.

&&

.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind Thursday morning for AKZ026.
     Strong Wind until 6 PM AKST this evening for AKZ025-027-028.
     Strong Wind from midnight AKST tonight through Thursday morning
     for AKZ027.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ022-033-036-041>043.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-021-031-032-034-035-051-052.
     Small Craft Advisory due to Seas for PKZ053.

&&

Fritsch/DEL

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