Alert archive / Alaska / Storm Warnings in 2018
Storm Warning 41, NWS Juneau, AK
NWS Juneau, AK issued this storm warning at Nov 25, 2018, 4:04 AM AKST. It was in force for 35 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Nov 25, 2018, 4:04 AM AKST (13:04 UTC)
- Expired
- Nov 26, 2018, 3:11 PM AKST
- In force
- 35 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Juneau, AK
The text
As transmitted.
818 FZAK52 PAJK 251304 CWFAEG COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA National Weather Service Juneau AK 404 AM AKST Sun Nov 25 2018 Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to Cape Suckling out 100 NM Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest one-third of the combined windwave and swell height. PKZ099-260715- 404 AM AKST Sun Nov 25 2018 .SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS... A very strong front will approach the eastern Gulf coast today. A storm force low pressure center will develop to 972 MB this evening along 140 W and will move to Cape Suckling Mon morning. For Mon night and Tue expect a long S fetch for the outside waters. $$ PKZ041-260715- Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision- 404 AM AKST Sun Nov 25 2018 ...STORM WARNING THIS EVENING... .TODAY...SE wind 25 kt increasing to 45 kt. Gusts to 60 kt in the afternoon. Seas 14 ft building to 19 ft in the afternoon. Rain. .TONIGHT...SE wind 50 kt becoming S 35 kt late. Gusts to 65 kt in the evening. Seas 20 ft. Rain. Slight chance of thunderstorms. .MON...S wind 30 kt becoming SE 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 17 ft. Slight chance of thunderstorms. .MON NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 16 ft. SW swell. .TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 15 ft. .WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft. .THU...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 9 ft. $$ PKZ042-260715- Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe- 404 AM AKST Sun Nov 25 2018 ...STORM WARNING THIS EVENING... .TODAY...SE wind 25 kt increasing to 45 kt. Seas 15 ft building to 20 ft in the afternoon. Rain. .TONIGHT...SE wind 50 kt becoming S 35 kt late. Gusts to 65 kt in the evening. Seas 21 ft. Rain. .MON...S wind 30 kt becoming SE 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 17 ft. Showers and slight chance of thunderstorms. .MON NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft. SW swell. Rain. .TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 14 ft. .WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft. .THU...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 9 ft. $$ PKZ043-260715- Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather- 404 AM AKST Sun Nov 25 2018 ...STORM WARNING TONIGHT... .TODAY...SE wind 30 kt increasing to 45 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain. .TONIGHT...SE wind 50 kt. Gusts to 65 kt. Seas 23 ft. Rain. .MON...S wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft. Showers. Slight chance of thunderstorms. .MON NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft. .TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft. .WED...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft. .THU...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft. $$ PKZ051-260715- Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape- 404 AM AKST Sun Nov 25 2018 ...STORM WARNING TONIGHT... .TODAY...E wind 30 kt increasing to 45 kt. Gusts to 60 kt. Seas 19 ft. Rain. .TONIGHT...E wind 50 kt. Seas 24 ft. Rain. .MON...S wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft. Showers and slight chance of thunderstorms. .MON NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft. .TUE...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. .WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. .THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. $$ PKZ052-260715- Icy Cape to Cape Suckling- 404 AM AKST Sun Nov 25 2018 ...STORM WARNING TONIGHT... .TODAY...E wind 30 kt increasing to 45 kt. Seas 21 ft. Rain. .TONIGHT...E wind 50 kt. Gusts to 65 kt. Seas 24 ft. Rain. .MON...E wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft. Slight chance of thunderstorms. .MON NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft. .TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. .WED...SE wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt. Seas 12 ft. .THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. $$
3 follow-up statements
998 FZAK52 PAJK 252317 CWFAEG COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA National Weather Service Juneau AK 217 PM AKST Sun Nov 25 2018 Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to Cape Suckling out 100 NM Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest one-third of the combined windwave and swell height. PKZ099-261730- 217 PM AKST Sun Nov 25 2018 .SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS... A storm force low will move into the SE Gulf early this evening and then track N to Cape Suckling by Monday morning. The associated gale force front will cross the southern inside waters through tonight. $$ PKZ041-261730- Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision- 217 PM AKST Sun Nov 25 2018 ...STORM WARNING THROUGH THIS EVENING... .TONIGHT...SE wind 50 kt becoming S 35 kt late. Seas 18 ft. Rain in the evening, then showers and slight chance of thunderstorms late. .MON...S wind 35 kt becoming SE 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 17 ft. Slight chance of thunderstorms in the morning. .MON NIGHT...E wind 15 kt becoming S late. Seas 15 ft. SW swell. Rain. .TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 14 ft. W swell. .TUE NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft. W swell. Rain. .WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft. .THU...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 9 ft. .FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. $$ PKZ042-261730- Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe- 217 PM AKST Sun Nov 25 2018 ...STORM WARNING THROUGH THIS EVENING... .TONIGHT...SE wind 50 kt diminishing to 40 kt late. Seas 19 ft. Rain. .MON...S wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 16 ft. Showers and slight chance of thunderstorms in the morning. .MON NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 15 ft. SW swell. .TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 14 ft. SW swell. .TUE NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft. W swell. .WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft. .THU...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 9 ft. .FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. $$ PKZ043-261730- Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather- 217 PM AKST Sun Nov 25 2018 ...STORM WARNING THROUGH THIS EVENING... .TONIGHT...SE wind increasing to 50 kt in the evening. Seas 20 ft. Rain. .MON...S wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 16 ft. Showers in the morning. Slight chance of thunderstorms. Showers in the afternoon. .MON NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft. .TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft. SW swell. .TUE NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. SW swell. .WED...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft. .THU...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft. .FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. $$ PKZ051-261730- Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape- 217 PM AKST Sun Nov 25 2018 ...STORM WARNING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING... .TONIGHT...E wind increasing to 50 kt in the evening. Seas 21 ft. Rain. .MON...E wind 50 kt becoming SE 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 17 ft. Showers. Slight chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. .MON NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. Slight chance of thunderstorms in the evening. Rain showers. .TUE...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. SW swell. .TUE NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. SW swell. Rain showers. .WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. .THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. .FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. $$ PKZ052-261730- Icy Cape to Cape Suckling- 217 PM AKST Sun Nov 25 2018 ...STORM WARNING THROUGH THIS EVENING... .TONIGHT...E wind 50 kt. Seas 22 ft. Rain. .MON...E wind 45 kt becoming SE 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 18 ft subsiding to 14 ft in the afternoon. Showers. Slight chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. .MON NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. Showers and slight chance of thunderstorms in the evening. .TUE...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. SW swell. .TUE NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. SW swell. Rain showers. .WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. .THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. .FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. $$
419 FZAK52 PAJK 261253 CWFAEG COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA National Weather Service Juneau AK 353 AM AKST Mon Nov 26 2018 Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to Cape Suckling out 100 NM Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest one-third of the combined windwave and swell height. PKZ099-270700- 353 AM AKST Mon Nov 26 2018 .SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS... A 966 MB storm force low center off Icy Bay will weaken while moving to Middleton Island later this morning. A second gale force low on the associated front will move to Lituya Bay this afternoon. Expect a long southerly fetch Mon Night and Tue then a much weaker front will move into the eastern Gulf Tue night. $$ PKZ041-270700- Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision- 353 AM AKST Mon Nov 26 2018 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT... .TODAY...S wind 30 kt becoming SE 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 18 ft. Showers early in the morning. Slight chance of thunderstorms. .TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 16 ft. SW swell. Rain in the evening, then slight chance of thunderstorms late. .TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 15 ft. SW swell. .TUE NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 14 ft. SW swell. .WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. .THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. .FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. $$ PKZ042-270700- Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe- 353 AM AKST Mon Nov 26 2018 ...GALE WARNING TODAY... .TODAY...S wind 35 kt. Gusts to 50 kt early in the morning. Seas 19 ft. Showers early in the morning. Slight chance of thunderstorms. Showers in the afternoon. .TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft. SW swell. Slight chance of thunderstorms. .TUE...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 14 ft. SW swell. .TUE NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft. SW swell. .WED...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft. .THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. .FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. $$ PKZ043-270700- Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather- 353 AM AKST Mon Nov 26 2018 ...STORM WARNING THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING... .TODAY...SE wind 50 kt becoming S 30 kt. Gusts to 65 kt early in the morning. Seas 22 ft subsiding to 17 ft in the afternoon. Rain. Slight chance of thunderstorms. .TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft. Slight chance of thunderstorms in the evening. Showers. .TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft. SW swell. .TUE NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft. SW swell. .WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. .THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. .FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. $$ PKZ051-270700- Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape- 353 AM AKST Mon Nov 26 2018 ...STORM WARNING THROUGH THIS MORNING... .TODAY...SE wind 50 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Gusts to 65 kt early in the morning. Seas 23 ft subsiding to 17 ft in the afternoon. Rain. Slight chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. .TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft. Showers in the evening. Slight chance of thunderstorms. Showers late. .TUE...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. SW swell. Rain showers. .TUE NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. SW swell. Rain showers. .WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft. .THU...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. .FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. $$ PKZ052-270700- Icy Cape to Cape Suckling- 353 AM AKST Mon Nov 26 2018 ...STORM WARNING THROUGH THIS MORNING... .TODAY...SE wind 50 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Gusts to 65 kt early in the morning. Seas 23 ft subsiding to 17 ft in the afternoon. Rain. Slight chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. .TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft. Showers in the evening. Slight chance of thunderstorms. Showers late. .TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. SW swell. Showers. .TUE NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. SW swell. Showers. .WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. .THU...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. .FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. $$
318 FZAK52 PAJK 270011 CWFAEG COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA National Weather Service Juneau AK 311 PM AKST Mon Nov 26 2018 Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to Cape Suckling out 100 NM Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest one-third of the combined windwave and swell height. PKZ099-271815- 311 PM AKST Mon Nov 26 2018 .SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS... A low pressure system over the southwest gulf will drift north to be just northeast of Kodiak Island by Tue afternoon before it weakens as it drifts inland. There will be a few associated troughs of low pressure that will move over the eastern gulf and panhandle. $$ PKZ041-271815- Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision- 311 PM AKST Mon Nov 26 2018 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS THROUGH TUESDAY... .TONIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 16 ft. Showers in the evening. Slight chance of thunderstorms. .TUE...S wind 10 kt. Seas 15 ft. SW swell. .TUE NIGHT...Light winds becoming N 10 kt late. Seas 14 ft. W swell. .WED...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft. W swell. .WED NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft. W swell. .THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. .FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. .SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. $$ PKZ042-271815- Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe- 311 PM AKST Mon Nov 26 2018 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS THROUGH TUESDAY... .TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 15 ft. Showers early in the evening. Slight chance of thunderstorms. .TUE...S wind 10 kt. Seas 14 ft. SW swell. .TUE NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 13 ft. W swell. .WED...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft. W swell. .WED NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft. W swell. .THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. .FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. .SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. $$ PKZ043-271815- Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather- 311 PM AKST Mon Nov 26 2018 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY... .TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 15 ft. Showers early in the evening. Slight chance of thunderstorms. .TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft. SW swell. .TUE NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft. SW swell. .WED...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft. SW swell. .WED NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft. SW swell. .THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. .FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. .SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. $$ PKZ051-271815- Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape- 311 PM AKST Mon Nov 26 2018 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY... .TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain showers. Slight chance of thunderstorms late. .TUE...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft. SW swell. .TUE NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt becoming W late. Seas 12 ft. SW swell. Rain showers in the evening. .WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft. SW swell. .WED NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft. SW swell. .THU...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. .FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. .SAT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. $$ PKZ052-271815- Icy Cape to Cape Suckling- 311 PM AKST Mon Nov 26 2018 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY... .TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft. Showers. .TUE...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. SW swell. Showers. .TUE NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. SW swell. Showers in the evening. .WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft. SW swell. .WED NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 10 ft. SW swell. .THU...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. .FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. .SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. $$
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this storm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Juneau, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this storm warning went out at Nov 24, 2:28 PM AKST, 13 hours 36 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Nov 24, 2:28 PM AKST, 13 hours 36 minutes before
Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
228 PM AKST Sat Nov 24 2018
.SHORT TERM...Satellite imagery this afternoon showing a storm
force low in the central gulf tracking northward toward Middleton
Island. The associated front increased eastern Gulf winds to max
gale force with storm force barrier jet over the NE Gulf coast.
The front is now crossing over the AK Panhandle with increasing
winds and precipitation. Strong winds along the western panhandle
coast will drop off this evening but will have small craft to gale
force winds over the inner channels. Precip for the panhandle
coast and points south of Icy Strait is falling as rain but cold
air mass currently in place for the north/central panhandle is
starting out precip as snow. As warm mid level air mass moves in
with the front precip will change over the rain overnight. There
may be enough cold air in the Haines area for the change over to
be delayed and with warm air aloft and cold surface temps could
see some freezing rain/drizzle before changing to all rain. Higher
elevations such as White Pass will stay all snow or at least a
snow/rain mix with only a few inches of accumulation expected.
Next storm force low/front moves in soon after the current
low/front dissipates. As of now expect the front to move over the
eastern Gulf Sunday then over the Panhandle Sunday night into
Monday. Once again strong winds will pick up along the coastal and
southern panhandle areas. Solid warm air with this system so
should have all rain for all locations with the exception of high
elevations which will only receive a few inches of snow due to
warming temps. Temps will be well above normal for this time of
year.
Timing issues with surface temps warming initial problem with
respect to precip type and timing of turn over the rain. Due to
multiple potential wave development along the front on Sunday
models have been having difficulties on either to place an open
wave trough, a closed low or nothing. 12/18z GFS showed little
wave development. 12z Canadian and NAM put in 968 mb lows in the
SW Gulf tracking north, while the 12z ECMWF placed a weaker closed
low further north. Of course the 18z NAM now has no closed low
and is closer to the GFS. Due to this uncertainty kept with
inherited grids which were closer tot he GFS/ 18z NAM. Forecast
confidence is low.
.LONG TERM.../Monday through Saturday night/...Extended range
forecast begins with a large negatively tilted upper trough over
the western Gulf of Alaska and a strong southerly jet situated
over Southeast Alaska. The jet will shift east within the first 24
hours, but numerous shortwave pulses rotating around the base of
the upper trough will maintain that feature over the Gulf until
late Friday night. At that time, a weak ridge and strong upper
level zonal flow will displace the trough off to the east. The
upper ridge will not last long, as an upper trough will depress
both it and the strong upper jet energy to the south. This
situation will remain dynamic, as a highly amplified upper ridge
will be moving east from Bristol Bay and the Bering Sea late in
the weekend.
A weak low level warm pool of air over the Gulf and Southeast
Alaska at the start of this long range forecast period will shift
east through the week. Based on the prevailing deep layer flow and
forecast temperatures at 850 mb, snow at the lower elevations is
not likely. Nonetheless, temperatures for late next week going
into the weekend were lowered by a few degrees.
At the surface, a high end gale force front at the tail end of
the short term forecast period will be pressed up against the
outer coast and weakening steadily through Monday night. After
that, southeasterly winds of 15 to 25 kts over the eastern gulf
will prevail for much of the coming week. Small craft winds on the
inside with gales over Clarence Strait Monday morning will also
relax to 15 kts of less, except 20 kt or less over Lynn Canal, by
Tuesday.
&&
.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind from Sunday morning through Sunday afternoon for
AKZ023-027.
Strong Wind until 9 PM AKST this evening for AKZ022-023.
Strong Wind through Sunday morning for AKZ017.
Strong Wind Sunday afternoon for AKZ028.
MARINE...Storm Warning for PKZ051-052.
Gale Warning for PKZ022-036-041>043-053.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011-021-031>035.
&&
PRB/Fritsch
Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/JuneauThe office that day
Everything else NWS Juneau, AK issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 24, 3:08 PM AKST | Storm Warning | AJK | 37 hr | |
| Nov 25, 4:14 AM AKST | Gale Warning | AJK | 24 hr | |
| Nov 25, 2:17 PM AKST | Gale Warning | AJK | 14 hr | |
| Nov 25, 2:17 PM AKST | Small Craft Advisory | AJK | 25 hr | |
| Nov 25, 2:21 PM AKST | High Wind Warning | AJK | 16 hr |
Nearby
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.