Storm Warning 37, NWS Juneau, AK

967 
FZAK67 PAJK 251258
OFFAJK

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Juneau AK
358 AM AKST Sun Nov 25 2018

Offshore waters forecast for Gulf of Alaska east of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ398-260700-
358 AM AKST Sun Nov 25 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A very strong front will approach the eastern Gulf coast today.
A storm force low pressure center will develop to 972 MB this
evening along 140 W and will move to Cape Suckling Mon  morning.
For Mon night and Tue expect a long S fetch for the  outside
waters. 

$$

PKZ310-260700-
Gulf of Alaska North of 55 Degrees North and East of 144 Degrees
West-
358 AM AKST Sun Nov 25 2018

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 35 kt increasing to 45 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 50 kt becoming S 25 kt late. Seas 19 ft. 
Rain. 
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 17 ft. SW swell. Slight chance of
thunderstorms. 
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft. SW swell. 
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.WED...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.THU...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 

$$

812 
FZAK67 PAJK 252318
OFFAJK

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Juneau AK
218 PM AKST Sun Nov 25 2018

Offshore waters forecast for Gulf of Alaska east of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ398-261730-
218 PM AKST Sun Nov 25 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A storm force low will move into the SE Gulf early this evening
and then track N to Cape Suckling by Monday morning. The
associated gale force front will cross the southern inside
waters through tonight.  

$$

PKZ310-261730-
Gulf of Alaska North of 55 Degrees North and East of 144 Degrees
West-
218 PM AKST Sun Nov 25 2018

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 50 kt becoming SW 30 kt late. Seas 18 ft. 
Rain...heavy at times in the evening. 
.MON...S wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft. SW swell. Slight chance of
thunderstorms in the morning. 
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft. SW swell. 
.TUE...S wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft. SW swell. 
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 15 kt becoming W late. Seas 13 ft. SW
swell. 
.WED...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.THU...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 

$$

245 
FZAK67 PAJK 261249
OFFAJK

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Juneau AK
349 AM AKST Mon Nov 26 2018

Offshore waters forecast for Gulf of Alaska east of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ398-270700-
349 AM AKST Mon Nov 26 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 966 MB storm force low center off Icy Bay will weaken while
moving to Middleton Island later this morning.  A second gale
force low on the associated front will move to Lituya Bay this
afternoon. Expect a long southerly fetch Mon Night and Tue then
a much weaker front will move into the eastern Gulf Tue night.  

$$

PKZ310-270700-
Gulf of Alaska North of 55 Degrees North and East of 144 Degrees
West-
349 AM AKST Mon Nov 26 2018

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft. Slight chance of 
thunderstorms. 
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft. SW swell. Slight chance of
thunderstorms. 
.TUE...S wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft. SW swell. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft. SW swell. 
.WED...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
228 PM AKST Sat Nov 24 2018

.SHORT TERM...Satellite imagery this afternoon showing a storm
force low in the central gulf tracking northward toward Middleton
Island. The associated front increased eastern Gulf winds to max
gale force with storm force barrier jet over the NE Gulf coast.
The front is now crossing over the AK Panhandle with increasing
winds and precipitation. Strong winds along the western panhandle
coast will drop off this evening but will have small craft to gale
force winds over the inner channels. Precip for the panhandle
coast and points south of Icy Strait is falling as rain but cold
air mass currently in place for the north/central panhandle is
starting out precip as snow. As warm mid level air mass moves in
with the front precip will change over the rain overnight. There
may be enough cold air in the Haines area for the change over to
be delayed and with warm air aloft and cold surface temps could
see some freezing rain/drizzle before changing to all rain. Higher
elevations such as White Pass will stay all snow or at least a
snow/rain mix with only a few inches of accumulation expected.

Next storm force low/front moves in soon after the current
low/front dissipates. As of now expect the front to move over the
eastern Gulf Sunday then over the Panhandle Sunday night into
Monday. Once again strong winds will pick up along the coastal and
southern panhandle areas. Solid warm air with this system so
should have all rain for all locations with the exception of high
elevations which will only receive a few inches of snow due to
warming temps. Temps will be well above normal for this time of
year.

Timing issues with surface temps warming initial problem with
respect to precip type and timing of turn over the rain. Due to
multiple potential wave development along the front on Sunday
models have been having difficulties on either to place an open
wave trough, a closed low or nothing. 12/18z GFS showed little
wave development. 12z Canadian and NAM put in 968 mb lows in the
SW Gulf tracking north, while the 12z ECMWF placed a weaker closed
low further north. Of course the 18z NAM now has no closed low
and is closer to the GFS. Due to this uncertainty kept with
inherited grids which were closer tot he GFS/ 18z NAM. Forecast
confidence is low.

.LONG TERM.../Monday through Saturday night/...Extended range
forecast begins with a large negatively tilted upper trough over
the western Gulf of Alaska and a strong southerly jet situated
over Southeast Alaska. The jet will shift east within the first 24
hours, but numerous shortwave pulses rotating around the base of
the upper trough will maintain that feature over the Gulf until
late Friday night. At that time, a weak ridge and strong upper
level zonal flow will displace the trough off to the east. The
upper ridge will not last long, as an upper trough will depress
both it and the strong upper jet energy to the south. This
situation will remain dynamic, as a highly amplified upper ridge
will be moving east from Bristol Bay and the Bering Sea late in
the weekend.

A weak low level warm pool of air over the Gulf and Southeast
Alaska at the start of this long range forecast period will shift
east through the week. Based on the prevailing deep layer flow and
forecast temperatures at 850 mb, snow at the lower elevations is
not likely. Nonetheless, temperatures for late next week going
into the weekend were lowered by a few degrees.

At the surface, a high end gale force front at the tail end of
the short term forecast period will be pressed up against the
outer coast and weakening steadily through Monday night. After
that, southeasterly winds of 15 to 25 kts over the eastern gulf
will prevail for much of the coming week. Small craft winds on the
inside with gales over Clarence Strait Monday morning will also
relax to 15 kts of less, except 20 kt or less over Lynn Canal, by
Tuesday.

&&

.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind from Sunday morning through Sunday afternoon for
     AKZ023-027.
     Strong Wind until 9 PM AKST this evening for AKZ022-023.
     Strong Wind through Sunday morning for AKZ017.
     Strong Wind Sunday afternoon for AKZ028.
MARINE...Storm Warning for PKZ051-052.
     Gale Warning for PKZ022-036-041>043-053.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011-021-031>035.

&&

PRB/Fritsch

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