Storm Warning 36, NWS Juneau, AK

956 
FZAK52 PAJK 251120
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
National Weather Service Juneau AK
320 AM AKDT Thu Oct 25 2018

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-260530-
320 AM AKDT Thu Oct 25 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A storm force low over the central gulf Thursday  morning will
weaken as it moves to the northwest gulf by Friday.  AK Gulf and
inner channel winds will diminish through Thursday  night.
Outlook. A developing low will move towards Dixon Entrance 
Friday increasing winds for the southern inner channels.  

$$

PKZ041-260530-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
320 AM AKDT Thu Oct 25 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...S wind 45 kt diminishing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
26 ft. Showers early in the morning. Slight chance of 
thunderstorms. Showers in the afternoon. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt becoming E late. Seas 18 ft. SW swell in
the evening. Showers and slight chance of thunderstorms in the
evening, then showers late. 
.FRI...E wind 25 kt becoming W in the afternoon. Seas 14 ft.
SW swell. Showers in the morning. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW gale to 35 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain.
.SAT...SE gale to 40 kt. Seas 21 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 25 kt becoming S 15 kt. Seas 17 ft subsiding to
11 ft. 
.MON...S wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-260530-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
320 AM AKDT Thu Oct 25 2018

...STORM WARNING THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...S wind 50 kt diminishing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
27 ft. Showers early in the morning, then showers and slight 
chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 19 ft. SW swell in the evening.
Showers and slight chance of thunderstorms in the evening, then
showers late. 
.FRI...E wind 15 kt becoming W in the afternoon. Seas 14 ft.
SW swell. Showers in the morning. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW gale to 35 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.SAT...SE gale to 40 kt. Seas 21 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt. Seas 17 ft
subsiding to 11 ft. 
.MON...S wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-260530-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
320 AM AKDT Thu Oct 25 2018

...STORM WARNING THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...S wind 55 kt diminishing to 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas
28 ft. Rain early in the morning, then showers. Slight chance of
thunderstorms in the afternoon. 
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 20 ft. Slight chance of
thunderstorms in the evening. Showers.
.FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 15 ft. SW swell. Showers.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.SAT...SE gale to 40 kt. Seas 20 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 17 ft subsiding to 12 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-260530-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
320 AM AKDT Thu Oct 25 2018

...STORM WARNING THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...NE wind 55 kt becoming S in the morning, then
diminishing to 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas 28 ft. Rain early in
the morning, then showers in the afternoon. 
.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 21 ft. Showers in the evening, 
then showers and slight chance of thunderstorms late. 
.FRI...E wind 25 kt becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 16 ft.
SW swell. Showers.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. SW swell. 
.SAT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft building to 19 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 17 ft subsiding to 12 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-260530-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
320 AM AKDT Thu Oct 25 2018

...STORM WARNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...E wind increasing to 40 kt in the morning, then becoming
SE 50 kt in the afternoon. Seas 28 ft. Rain early in the morning,
then showers in the afternoon. 
.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 23 ft. Showers and slight chance
of thunderstorms late. 
.FRI...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft. Showers in the afternoon. 
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. SW swell. Showers.
.SAT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. 

$$

610 
FZAK52 PAJK 252322
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
National Weather Service Juneau AK
322 PM AKDT Thu Oct 25 2018

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-261730-
322 PM AKDT Thu Oct 25 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A storm force low will continue to weaken as it moves into the
northwest gulf by early Friday morning. AK Gulf and inner channel
winds will diminish through Thursday night. Outlook. A developing
low will move towards Dixon Entrance Friday increasing winds for 
the southern inner channels. 

$$

PKZ041-261730-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
322 PM AKDT Thu Oct 25 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt becoming E late. Seas 21 ft subsiding to 
16 ft late. SW swell in the evening. Showers and slight chance of 
thunderstorms in the evening, then rain late. 
.FRI...NE wind 30 kt becoming W 20 kt in the afternoon. Higher
gusts near Dixon Entrance. Seas 15 ft. Rain in the morning. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt becoming SE 30 kt late. Seas 12 ft. 
.SAT...SE gale to 40 kt. Seas 19 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 19 ft. 
.SUN...SE gale to 35 kt becoming S 15 kt. Seas 18 ft subsiding
to 11 ft. 
.MON...S wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-261730-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
322 PM AKDT Thu Oct 25 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt becoming SE 20 kt late. Seas 22 ft 
subsiding to 16 ft late. SW swell in the evening. Showers. Slight
chance of thunderstorms in the evening.
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt becoming W 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 13 
ft. Rain in the morning. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt becoming SE 25 kt late. Seas 11 ft. 
.SAT...SE gale to 40 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SE gale to 40 kt. Seas 19 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 30 kt diminishing to 15 kt. Seas 18 ft
subsiding to 11 ft. 
.MON...S wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-261730-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
322 PM AKDT Thu Oct 25 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt becoming SE 25 kt in the evening. Seas 23
ft subsiding to 18 ft late. Slight chance of thunderstorms in the
evening. Showers.
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt becoming SW 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 14 
ft. SW swell in the morning. Showers in the morning. 
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.SAT...SE gale to 40 kt. Seas 17 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE gale to 40 kt. Seas 19 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 17 ft subsiding to 12 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-261730-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
322 PM AKDT Thu Oct 25 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the late evening.
Seas 25 ft subsiding to 19 ft late. Showers. Slight chance of 
thunderstorms. 
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 
14 ft. SW swell in the morning. Showers in the morning. 
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. SW swell. 
.SAT...SE gale to 40 kt. Gusts to 35 kt out of interior bays
and passes. Seas 14 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE gale to 40 kt. Seas 18 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft subsiding to 12 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.TUE...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-261730-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
322 PM AKDT Thu Oct 25 2018

...STORM WARNING THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 50 kt diminishing to 35 kt in the evening. 
Seas 24 ft. Slight chance of thunderstorms late. 
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft subsiding to 12 ft in the 
afternoon. S swell becoming SW in the afternoon. 
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. SW swell. Showers in
the evening. 
.SAT...E gale to 35 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...E gale to 40 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain.
.SUN...E wind 30 kt diminishing to 15 kt. Seas 16 ft subsiding
to 12 ft. 
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.TUE...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 

$$

482 
FZAK52 PAJK 261137
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
National Weather Service Juneau AK
337 AM AKDT Fri Oct 26 2018

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-270545-
337 AM AKDT Fri Oct 26 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A low moving over Haida Gwaii Friday morning will  move across
the eastern Dixon Entrance region and into British  Columbia
Friday afternoon. A complex low with multiple centers  will move
to the southern gulf Saturday and persist to early next week.  

$$

PKZ041-270545-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
337 AM AKDT Fri Oct 26 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 25 kt becoming W in the afternoon. Gusts to 45 kt
early in the morning. Seas 16 ft subsiding to 12 ft in the
afternoon. Rain early in the morning. 
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt becoming S 30 kt late. Seas 12 ft. 
.SAT...SE gale to 40 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 19 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 17 ft subsiding to 12 ft. 
.MON...S wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-270545-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
337 AM AKDT Fri Oct 26 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt becoming W in the afternoon. Gusts to
35 kt early in the morning. Seas 14 ft. Showers early in the
morning, then rain in the morning. 
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt becoming S 25 kt late. Seas 11 ft. 
.SAT...SE gale to 40 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE gale to 40 kt. Seas 19 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft subsiding to 12 ft. 
.MON...S wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-270545-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
337 AM AKDT Fri Oct 26 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt becoming SW 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
15 ft subsiding to 11 ft in the afternoon. SW swell early in the
morning. Showers in the morning. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.SAT...SE gale to 40 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE gale to 40 kt. Seas 19 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft subsiding to 12 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-270545-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
337 AM AKDT Fri Oct 26 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft subsiding to 12 ft in the
afternoon. SW swell early in the morning. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. Isolated thunderstorms in
the evening. 
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt increasing to gale to 40 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 11 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...E gale to 40 kt. Seas 18 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft subsiding to 12 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.TUE...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-270545-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
337 AM AKDT Fri Oct 26 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 17 ft subsiding to 12 ft in the
afternoon. SW swell in the afternoon. Showers and isolated
thunderstorms early in the morning. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. Showers and isolated
thunderstorms in the evening. 
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt becoming E gale to 35 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 10 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...E gale to 40 kt. Seas 18 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft subsiding to 12 ft. 
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.TUE...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
255 PM AKDT Wed Oct 24 2018

.SHORT TERM...Forecast still appears to be on track today as a
storm force low continues to work its way up the eastern gulf
coast, and very little changes were made to the forecast for the
tonight through tomorrow night time period. Observations of gusts
up to 45 mph have already been reported this afternoon for
southern area sites, and some marine buoys in the area are
reporting sustained winds of 40 kt. Canadian buoy 46208 located
just west of Haida Gwaii is currently reporting a gust of 52 kt,
and with sea heights at 26 ft, the gust is more than likely acting
as the sustained wind representation. Rain coverage has also
increased north as the low continues to strengthen, with rain
being reported as far as Gustavus. Areas are beginning to lose
the offshore flow component ahead of the low. Winds will continue
to be the main threat tonight through tomorrow until the low moves
west of Cape Suckling by tomorrow afternoon. Storm force winds
are expected along the eastern gulf marine zones, and strong gales
40-45 kt will work their way through Chatham and Clarence Straits
this evening through tonight. All other inner channel marine zones
can expect 25 to 35 kt winds. High Wind Warnings concerning gusts
to 60 mph remain in effect for Zones 22, 23, and 27, which
include the cities of Sitka, Klawock, and Hydaburg. For many other
locations, gusts between 40 and 55 mph are expected.

Winds should begin to diminish throughout most of the inner
channels tomorrow and tomorrow night as the low tracks further
north and west. As cooler air wraps into the low as it matures,
instability will increase providing the opportunity for potential
thunderstorms beginning late tonight for eastern gulf waters and
areas in the southern panhandle, the possibility extending all the
way into Ketchikan and north into Sitka. This also means that
rain tonight will take on a more convective shower regime by
tomorrow, with more breaks in the precip possible by tomorrow
night. Temperatures tonight through tomorrow night will also be a
struggle to keep up with. Generally, highs will be in the low to
mid 50s and lows will be in the mid to upper 40s, a very weak
diurnal range due to precipitation and cloud cover. However, some
locations may reach their high temps overnight due to mixing from
the winds and possible downslope flow for certain areas.

.LONG TERM.../Friday through Wednesday as of 10 pm Tuesday/
Upper trof will extend from western AK into the Gulf of AK at
beginning of long range period. The trof will move slowly E during
the weekend as upper pattern becomes a bit more progressive. After
the weekend, the flow pattern becomes tricky as models differ on
placement of key shortwave features. At the sfc, looks like a low
or lows will head N into the gulf for the weekend, with important
model differences on track and strength of the low(s). Given the
differences, decided to stick with current forecast for the longer
term period.

One aspect of the longer range forecast that will need to be
monitored is the wind for the weekend. Models suggest the low(s)
will have at least gale force winds, but given the differences in
track, did not have enough confidence in where to boost winds.
Left in the 25-30 kt winds for that time frame for the gulf.

&&

.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind from 10 PM AKDT this evening through Thursday
     morning for AKZ026.
     High Wind Warning until 10 PM AKDT this evening for AKZ027.
     Strong Wind from late tonight through Thursday afternoon for
     AKZ025.
     High Wind Warning from 4 AM to 10 AM AKDT Thursday for AKZ022.
     High Wind Warning from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM AKDT Thursday
     for AKZ023.
     Strong Wind from late tonight through Thursday morning for
     AKZ020.
     Strong Wind through Thursday morning for AKZ021.
     Strong Wind until 1 AM AKDT Thursday for AKZ028.
     Strong Wind Thursday afternoon for AKZ018.
     Strong Wind from Thursday morning through Thursday afternoon for
     AKZ017.
MARINE...Storm Warning for PKZ022-041>043-051-052.
     Gale Warning for PKZ012-013-021-031>036-053.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011.

&&

Voveris/RWT

Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau