Storm Warning 26, NWS Juneau, AK

975 
FZAK52 PAJK 131035
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED
National Weather Service Juneau AK
235 AM AKDT Sat Oct 13 2018

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-140445-
235 AM AKDT Sat Oct 13 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
High pressure over the E gulf will gradually get pushed east
into Canada through Sun. Meanwhile a strong gale  force low will
move N through the central gulf Sat. Its trailing  front will
gradually move E to be over the Northern panhandle by  Sun.  

$$

PKZ041-140445-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
235 AM AKDT Sat Oct 13 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...Light winds becoming S 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. W swell. 
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. W swell. 
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. SW swell. 
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. SW swell. 
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. SW swell. 
.MON...S wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. 



$$

PKZ042-140445-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
235 AM AKDT Sat Oct 13 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...Light winds becoming S 25 kt. Seas building to 8 ft. 
.SAT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain in the afternoon. 
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.SUN...S wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.MON...S wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft. 



$$

PKZ043-140445-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
235 AM AKDT Sat Oct 13 2018

...GALE WARNING LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt becoming SE 35 kt late. Seas 7 ft
building to 12 ft late. Rain late. 
.SAT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain.
.SUN...S gale to 35 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.MON...S wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft building to 15 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft. 



$$

PKZ051-140445-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
235 AM AKDT Sat Oct 13 2018

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

.REST OF TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain. Isolated 
thunderstorms.
.SAT...SE wind 45 kt becoming SW 35 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 18 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt becoming NW late. Seas 14 ft. S
swell. Rain.
.SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 14 ft. S swell. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. S swell. Rain.
.MON...S wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft building to 16 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. 



$$

PKZ052-140445-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
235 AM AKDT Sat Oct 13 2018

UPDATED

...STORM WARNING THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.REST OF TONIGHT...E wind 45 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain. Isolated 
thunderstorms.
.SAT...E wind 50 kt becoming SW 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas
17 ft. Rain in the morning. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 12 ft. S swell. Showers in
the evening. 
.SUN...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft. S swell. 
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.MON...S wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft building to 16 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. 



$$

512 
FZAK52 PAJK 131135
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
National Weather Service Juneau AK
335 AM AKDT Sat Oct 13 2018

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-140545-
335 AM AKDT Sat Oct 13 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
High pressure over the panhandle will gradually get pushed east 
into Canada through Sun. Meanwhile a strong gale force low will 
move N through the central gulf Sat. Its trailing front will 
gradually move E to be over the Northern and Central panhandle by 
Sun. 

$$

PKZ041-140545-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
335 AM AKDT Sat Oct 13 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind increasing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
building to 9 ft. W swell.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. SW swell.
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. SW swell. 
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. SW swell. 
.MON...S wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-140545-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
335 AM AKDT Sat Oct 13 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind increasing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
building to 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain in the morning. 
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. SW swell. 
.MON...S wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-140545-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
335 AM AKDT Sat Oct 13 2018

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 35 kt. Seas building to 16 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt increasing to 35 kt late. Seas 17 ft. 
Rain.
.SUN...S gale to 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 16 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain.
.MON...S wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-140545-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
335 AM AKDT Sat Oct 13 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...SE wind increasing to 45 kt in the morning then becoming
SW 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas building to 16 ft. Isolated 
thunderstorms early in the morning. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain.
.SUN...W wind 15 kt becoming E in the afternoon. Seas 14 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.MON...S wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt. Seas 17 ft
subsiding to 13 ft. 
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-140545-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
335 AM AKDT Sat Oct 13 2018

...STORM WARNING THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...E wind increasing to 50 kt in the morning then becoming 
SW 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas building to 17 ft. Rain. Isolated
thunderstorms early in the morning.
.TONIGHT...S wind 10 kt becoming NW late. Seas 12 ft. S swell.
Rain.
.SUN...NW wind 15 kt becoming E in the afternoon. Seas 11 ft.
S swell. 
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.MON...S wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft subsiding to 12 ft. 
.WED...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft. 

$$

750 
FZAK52 PAJK 132308
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
National Weather Service Juneau AK
308 PM AKDT Sat Oct 13 2018

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-141715-
308 PM AKDT Sat Oct 13 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
High pressure over the southern panhandle will gradually move 
east into Canada through Sun. A strong front will move from the 
northeast gulf coast to the northern panhandle. The front will 
then lift north to the northeast gulf coast again by Monday. 

$$

PKZ041-141715-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
308 PM AKDT Sat Oct 13 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. SW swell. 
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. SW swell. 
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 11 ft. SW
swell. 
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. SW swell. 
.MON NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. SW swell. 
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-141715-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
308 PM AKDT Sat Oct 13 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain late. 
.SUN...S wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain in the morning. 
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. SW swell. 
.MON...S wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. SW swell. 
.MON NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-141715-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
308 PM AKDT Sat Oct 13 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain.
.SUN...S wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 16 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain.
.MON...S wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain.
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-141715-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
308 PM AKDT Sat Oct 13 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Gusts to 45 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain.
.SUN...W wind 15 kt becoming E in the afternoon. Seas 14 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 25 kt becoming S late. Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.MON...S wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain.
.TUE...S wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt. Seas 17 ft
subsiding to 13 ft. 
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-141715-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
308 PM AKDT Sat Oct 13 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 10 kt becoming NW late. Seas 13 ft. S swell.
Rain.
.SUN...NW wind 15 kt becoming E in the afternoon. Seas 11 ft.
S swell. 
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain.
.TUE...S wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft subsiding to 12 ft. 
.WED...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
218 PM AKDT Fri Oct 12 2018

.SHORT TERM.../ Through Sunday / A developing atmospheric river
is moving into the north central gulf coast region Friday night as
the lead lower pressure system moves quickly into the Central Gulf
Coast area. Strong winds and heavy rains are accompanying the
low. The moisture stream extends nearly to the Hawaiian Islands. A
secondary wave further back on the frontal band will run along
the front to move inland Saturday afternoon and a third for the
northern panhandle early sunday. The frontal band will shift east
to be over the northern- central half of the panhandle Sunday
before the developing wave pulls the frontal band back north to
the Yakutat area Sunday night. A tight gradient on the east side
of the front will see strong south winds helping to push some
warmer air northward the will spread slightly into the southern
panhandle. Do not expect much warming only a few degrees.

Southern panhandle not expecting much of the frontal band as it
stalls north of Frederick Sound. So while the northern panhandle
is receiving 3 to 5 inches, the southern will likely see 3 to 5
tenths of an inch.

Gusty wind on the coastal area near the frontal band and less
gusty across the inner channels. Have gusts 40 mph or so
forecasted from Cross Sound north to the Yakutat area on
Saturday. Have kept the strong wind headline and added the Cross
Sound area to it. Northern inner channels will likely be gusting
to 35 mph.

.LONG TERM.../Sunday through Friday, As of 10 PM Thursday/...An
active period of wet and windy weather will persist through the
week. Sunday will begin with an atmospheric river impacting the
northern Panhandle. This will produce widespread heavy rain over
the northern Panhandle. The heavy rain band will likely meander
through the day pushing south through the morning hours and then
drifting back to the northwest through the late afternoon and
evening. While the southern Panhandle will see some rain on Sunday
the heaviest rates will likely stay north of Sumner Strait.
Monday a surface low near the Bering Sea will send another front
northward; this will act to renew the heavy rainfall rates along
the northeast Gulf coast. The rain will spread east through the
day; however, most of the long lasting heavy rainfall will impact
the northern Panhandle, especially, the NE Gulf Coast. Between
late Wednesday and Thursday a brief dry period may occur before
the next surface low tracks into the Gulf sometime Thursday. One
thing to note is with the tropical origins of these systems
temperatures will stay seasonably warm, so low elevation snowfall
will not be a concern with snow levels remaining between
4000-7000ft.

Besides the heavy rainfall, winds will be a concern over the Gulf
with a large band of 25-30 kt winds expected Sunday From
Fairweather to Cape Decision. The same will be true for the inner
channels with 25 kt winds expected in portions Lynn Canal, Chatham
Strait, Stephens Passage, Frederick Sound, and Cross Sound. The
inner channel winds may see a few periods of stronger winds as the
system meanders S and N. Winds in the inner Channels will diminish
between late Sunday and Monday before increasing Monday morning
once again as the next front pushes N. The system later this week
looks like it will carry a band of gale force winds into the Gulf;
however, confidence is not high enough to place a definitive band
in the forecast yet.

Overall no major changes to the extended forecast were made. Winds
in the inner channels were increase on both Sunday and Monday.
Also the precipitation forecast was adjusted to add greater
detail to the location of the atmospheric rivers heaviest rainfall
rates between Sunday and Monday. Forecast confidence is above
average through Monday, average Tuesday and Wednesday, and below
average Thursday and beyond.

&&

.AVIATION...Few hazards this evening with only some lower clouds
in the northern panhandle and patchy fog stubbornly holding on
through the afternoon. Ceilings and visibilities should crash
down to IFR or low MFVR in the Yakutat area tonight in the
moderate to heavy rain and then will see these conditions slowly
move to the northern panhandle by Saturday. The second hazard,
more for tonight and Saturday, will be LLWS with a strong low
level jet with the Atmospheric River along the frontal band.

&&

.MARINE...A more typical fall storm is finally moving across the
gulf and into the northeast gulf coast area late Friday and early
Saturday. Winds ahead of the front increasing 35 to 45 kt with a
couple small pockets of 50 kt storm force winds. Gales for nearly
the rest of the outer coastal waters. Small craft wind of 25 to
30 for much of the inner channels as the front moves toward the
northern panhandle.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...Wet for the northern panhandle and NE Gulf coast
areas for the next several days to to an atmospheric river
developing. 3 to 5 inches through Sunday and higher amounts in
the coastal windward terrain. Rivers and streams expected to rise
significantly, however do not expect flooding on them. The smaller
quicker reaction streams might have an issued depending on the
rain rates experienced. South of Sumner Strait the flow pattern
unfortunately protects the area and less than 3/4 inch is expected
through the weekend.

&&

.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind Saturday afternoon for AKZ022.
     Strong Wind from Saturday morning through Saturday afternoon for
     AKZ017.
MARINE...Storm Warning for PKZ052.
     Gale Warning for PKZ043-051.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011>013-021-022-031-032-041-042-053.

&&

Bezenek/JB

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