Alert archive / Alaska / Gale Warnings in 2018
Gale Warning 201, NWS Juneau, AK
NWS Juneau, AK issued this gale warning at Oct 12, 2018, 3:20 AM AKDT. It was in force for 36 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Oct 12, 2018, 3:20 AM AKDT (11:20 UTC)
- Expired
- Oct 13, 2018, 3:08 PM AKDT
- In force
- 36 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Juneau, AK
The text
As transmitted.
778 FZAK52 PAJK 121120 CWFAEG COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA National Weather Service Juneau AK 320 AM AKDT Fri Oct 12 2018 Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to Cape Suckling out 100 NM Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest one-third of the combined windwave and swell height. PKZ099-130530- 320 AM AKDT Fri Oct 12 2018 .SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS... High pressure over the E gulf will gradually move east into Canada through Sun. Meanwhile, a strong gale force low will move N through the central gulf Sat. The trailing front will gradually move E to be over the Northern panhandle by Sun. $$ PKZ041-130530- Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision- 320 AM AKDT Fri Oct 12 2018 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON... .TODAY...W wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft subsiding in the afternoon. .TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. W swell. .SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. W swell. .SAT NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. SW swell. .SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. .MON...S wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. .TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. $$ PKZ042-130530- Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe- 320 AM AKDT Fri Oct 12 2018 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND LATE TONIGHT... .TODAY...NW wind 15 kt becoming W 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 8 ft subsiding in the afternoon. .TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt late. Seas 6 ft. .SAT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain in the afternoon. .SAT NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain. .SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. .MON...S wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. .TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. $$ PKZ043-130530- Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather- 320 AM AKDT Fri Oct 12 2018 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND LATE TONIGHT... .TODAY...W wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft subsiding to 7 ft in the afternoon. W swell. .TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt becoming SE 30 kt late. Seas 7 ft building to 12 ft late. .SAT...S gale to 35 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain. .SAT NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain. .SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft. .MON...S wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft building to 15 ft. .TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft. $$ PKZ051-130530- Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape- 320 AM AKDT Fri Oct 12 2018 ...GALE WARNING LATE TONIGHT... .TODAY...W wind 10 kt becoming S 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 8 ft. SW swell. .TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt increasing to 40 kt late. Seas 9 ft building to 15 ft late. Rain late. .SAT...SE gale to 45 kt becoming SW gale to 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 18 ft. Rain. .SAT NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 14 ft. S swell. Rain. .SUN...N wind 15 kt becoming SE. Seas 12 ft. .MON...S wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft building to 16 ft. .TUE...S wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt. Seas 15 ft. $$ PKZ052-130530- Icy Cape to Cape Suckling- 320 AM AKDT Fri Oct 12 2018 ...GALE WARNING LATE TONIGHT... .TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt becoming S 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 9 ft. Rain in the afternoon. .TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt increasing to 45 kt late. Seas 10 ft building to 17 ft late. Rain. .SAT...E storm force wind to 50 kt becoming SW 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 17 ft. Rain in the morning. .SAT NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 13 ft. S swell. .SUN...N wind 10 kt becoming SE 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. .MON...S wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft building to 16 ft. .TUE...S wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft. $$
4 follow-up statements
895 FZAK52 PAJK 122309 CWFAEG COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA National Weather Service Juneau AK 309 PM AKDT Fri Oct 12 2018 Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to Cape Suckling out 100 NM Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest one-third of the combined windwave and swell height. PKZ099-131715- 309 PM AKDT Fri Oct 12 2018 .SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS... High pressure over the E gulf will gradually get pushed east into Canada through Sun. Meanwhile a strong gale force low will move N through the central gulf Sat. Its trailing front will gradually move E to be over the Northern panhandle by Sun. $$ PKZ041-131715- Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision- 309 PM AKDT Fri Oct 12 2018 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY... .TONIGHT...Light winds becoming S 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. W swell. .SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. W swell. .SAT NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. SW swell. .SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. SW swell. .SUN NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. SW swell. .MON...S wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. .TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. .WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. $$ PKZ042-131715- Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe- 309 PM AKDT Fri Oct 12 2018 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY... .TONIGHT...Light winds becoming S 25 kt. Seas building to 8 ft. .SAT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain in the afternoon. .SAT NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain. .SUN...S wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain. .SUN NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. .MON...S wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. .TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. .WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft. $$ PKZ043-131715- Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather- 309 PM AKDT Fri Oct 12 2018 ...GALE WARNING LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY... .TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt becoming SE 35 kt late. Seas 7 ft building to 12 ft late. Rain late. .SAT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain. .SAT NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain. .SUN...S gale to 35 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain. .SUN NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain. .MON...S wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft building to 15 ft. .TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft. .WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft. $$ PKZ051-131715- Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape- 309 PM AKDT Fri Oct 12 2018 ...GALE WARNING LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY... .TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt increasing to 40 kt late. Seas 8 ft building to 15 ft late. Rain late. .SAT...SE wind 45 kt becoming SW 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 18 ft. Rain. .SAT NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt becoming NW late. Seas 14 ft. S swell. Rain. .SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 14 ft. S swell. .SUN NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. S swell. Rain. .MON...S wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft building to 16 ft. .TUE...S wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt. Seas 15 ft. .WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. $$ PKZ052-131715- Icy Cape to Cape Suckling- 309 PM AKDT Fri Oct 12 2018 ...STORM WARNING SATURDAY... .TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt increasing to 45 kt late. Seas 10 ft building to 17 ft late. Rain. .SAT...E wind 50 kt becoming SW 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 17 ft. Rain in the morning. .SAT NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 12 ft. S swell. Showers in the evening. .SUN...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft. S swell. .SUN NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain. .MON...S wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft building to 16 ft. .TUE...S wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft. .WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. $$
975 FZAK52 PAJK 131035 CWFAEG COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED National Weather Service Juneau AK 235 AM AKDT Sat Oct 13 2018 Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to Cape Suckling out 100 NM Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest one-third of the combined windwave and swell height. PKZ099-140445- 235 AM AKDT Sat Oct 13 2018 .SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS... High pressure over the E gulf will gradually get pushed east into Canada through Sun. Meanwhile a strong gale force low will move N through the central gulf Sat. Its trailing front will gradually move E to be over the Northern panhandle by Sun. $$ PKZ041-140445- Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision- 235 AM AKDT Sat Oct 13 2018 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY... .TONIGHT...Light winds becoming S 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. W swell. .SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. W swell. .SAT NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. SW swell. .SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. SW swell. .SUN NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. SW swell. .MON...S wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. .TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. .WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. $$ PKZ042-140445- Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe- 235 AM AKDT Sat Oct 13 2018 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY... .TONIGHT...Light winds becoming S 25 kt. Seas building to 8 ft. .SAT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain in the afternoon. .SAT NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain. .SUN...S wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain. .SUN NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. .MON...S wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. .TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. .WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft. $$ PKZ043-140445- Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather- 235 AM AKDT Sat Oct 13 2018 ...GALE WARNING LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY... .TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt becoming SE 35 kt late. Seas 7 ft building to 12 ft late. Rain late. .SAT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain. .SAT NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain. .SUN...S gale to 35 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain. .SUN NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain. .MON...S wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft building to 15 ft. .TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft. .WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft. $$ PKZ051-140445- Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape- 235 AM AKDT Sat Oct 13 2018 UPDATED ...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON... .REST OF TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain. Isolated thunderstorms. .SAT...SE wind 45 kt becoming SW 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 18 ft. Rain. .SAT NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt becoming NW late. Seas 14 ft. S swell. Rain. .SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 14 ft. S swell. .SUN NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. S swell. Rain. .MON...S wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft building to 16 ft. .TUE...S wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt. Seas 15 ft. .WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. $$ PKZ052-140445- Icy Cape to Cape Suckling- 235 AM AKDT Sat Oct 13 2018 UPDATED ...STORM WARNING THROUGH THIS MORNING... .REST OF TONIGHT...E wind 45 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain. Isolated thunderstorms. .SAT...E wind 50 kt becoming SW 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 17 ft. Rain in the morning. .SAT NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 12 ft. S swell. Showers in the evening. .SUN...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft. S swell. .SUN NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain. .MON...S wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft building to 16 ft. .TUE...S wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft. .WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. $$
512 FZAK52 PAJK 131135 CWFAEG COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA National Weather Service Juneau AK 335 AM AKDT Sat Oct 13 2018 Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to Cape Suckling out 100 NM Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest one-third of the combined windwave and swell height. PKZ099-140545- 335 AM AKDT Sat Oct 13 2018 .SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS... High pressure over the panhandle will gradually get pushed east into Canada through Sun. Meanwhile a strong gale force low will move N through the central gulf Sat. Its trailing front will gradually move E to be over the Northern and Central panhandle by Sun. $$ PKZ041-140545- Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision- 335 AM AKDT Sat Oct 13 2018 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT... .TODAY...S wind increasing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas building to 9 ft. W swell. .TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. SW swell. .SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. SW swell. .SUN NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. SW swell. .MON...S wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. .TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. .WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. $$ PKZ042-140545- Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe- 335 AM AKDT Sat Oct 13 2018 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT... .TODAY...S wind increasing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas building to 12 ft. .TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. .SUN...S wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain in the morning. .SUN NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. SW swell. .MON...S wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. .TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. .WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. $$ PKZ043-140545- Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather- 335 AM AKDT Sat Oct 13 2018 ...GALE WARNING TODAY AND TONIGHT... .TODAY...S wind 35 kt. Seas building to 16 ft. Rain. .TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt increasing to 35 kt late. Seas 17 ft. Rain. .SUN...S gale to 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 16 ft. Rain. .SUN NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain. .MON...S wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. .TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft. .WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. $$ PKZ051-140545- Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape- 335 AM AKDT Sat Oct 13 2018 ...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON... .TODAY...SE wind increasing to 45 kt in the morning then becoming SW 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas building to 16 ft. Isolated thunderstorms early in the morning. Rain. .TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain. .SUN...W wind 15 kt becoming E in the afternoon. Seas 14 ft. .SUN NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain. .MON...S wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft. .TUE...S wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt. Seas 17 ft subsiding to 13 ft. .WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. $$ PKZ052-140545- Icy Cape to Cape Suckling- 335 AM AKDT Sat Oct 13 2018 ...STORM WARNING THIS MORNING... .TODAY...E wind increasing to 50 kt in the morning then becoming SW 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas building to 17 ft. Rain. Isolated thunderstorms early in the morning. .TONIGHT...S wind 10 kt becoming NW late. Seas 12 ft. S swell. Rain. .SUN...NW wind 15 kt becoming E in the afternoon. Seas 11 ft. S swell. .SUN NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain. .MON...S wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft. .TUE...S wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft subsiding to 12 ft. .WED...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft. $$
750 FZAK52 PAJK 132308 CWFAEG COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA National Weather Service Juneau AK 308 PM AKDT Sat Oct 13 2018 Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to Cape Suckling out 100 NM Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest one-third of the combined windwave and swell height. PKZ099-141715- 308 PM AKDT Sat Oct 13 2018 .SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS... High pressure over the southern panhandle will gradually move east into Canada through Sun. A strong front will move from the northeast gulf coast to the northern panhandle. The front will then lift north to the northeast gulf coast again by Monday. $$ PKZ041-141715- Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision- 308 PM AKDT Sat Oct 13 2018 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY... .TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. SW swell. .SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. SW swell. .SUN NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 11 ft. SW swell. .MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. SW swell. .MON NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. SW swell. .TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. .WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. .THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. $$ PKZ042-141715- Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe- 308 PM AKDT Sat Oct 13 2018 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY... .TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain late. .SUN...S wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain in the morning. .SUN NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. SW swell. .MON...S wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. SW swell. .MON NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. .TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. .WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. .THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. $$ PKZ043-141715- Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather- 308 PM AKDT Sat Oct 13 2018 ...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING... .TONIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain. .SUN...S wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 16 ft. Rain. .SUN NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain. .MON...S wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. .MON NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain. .TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft. .WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. .THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. $$ PKZ051-141715- Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape- 308 PM AKDT Sat Oct 13 2018 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT... .TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Gusts to 45 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain. .SUN...W wind 15 kt becoming E in the afternoon. Seas 14 ft. .SUN NIGHT...E wind 25 kt becoming S late. Seas 14 ft. Rain. .MON...S wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain. .MON NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain. .TUE...S wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt. Seas 17 ft subsiding to 13 ft. .WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. .THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. $$ PKZ052-141715- Icy Cape to Cape Suckling- 308 PM AKDT Sat Oct 13 2018 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS THROUGH SUNDAY... .TONIGHT...S wind 10 kt becoming NW late. Seas 13 ft. S swell. Rain. .SUN...NW wind 15 kt becoming E in the afternoon. Seas 11 ft. S swell. .SUN NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain. .MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain. .MON NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain. .TUE...S wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft subsiding to 12 ft. .WED...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft. .THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. $$
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this gale warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Juneau, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this gale warning went out at Oct 11, 3:03 PM AKDT, 12 hours 17 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Oct 11, 3:03 PM AKDT, 12 hours 17 minutes before
Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
303 PM AKDT Thu Oct 11 2018
.SHORT TERM...Current WV Satellite imagery shows an upper
shortwave trough moving across the E Gulf which is helping to
enhance rainfall along a frontal band across the southern
panhandle Thursday afternoon. Showers are developing in the cooler
air aloft associated with this wave over the Gulf and left a
mention of slight chance of TS over E Gulf. Expect the heavier
rain to move out into western BC by late tonight, with isolated to
scattered showers lingering along the coastal mountains and outer
coast overnight.
Model solutions remain in good agreement in the short term
synoptic pattern with a short lived ridge traversing across the
Gulf tonight and over the panhandle Friday. Anticipate areas of
fog to develop late tonight into early Friday with light winds and
some reduced cloud coverage allowing for radiational cooling to
occur. It is possible for the sun to make an appearance Friday in
a few areas before the next weather system arrives. The parent
low in the Bering Sea continues to spin, along with an upper
trough, lifting the next front into the W Gulf. A secondary wave
with low level jet dynamics expected to enhance the gale force
front into the central Gulf early Saturday. Main adjustments to
the inherited forecast was to speed up the initial wave by a few
hours and increase surface winds to near storm force along the
northern Gulf. Confidence is above average in this system bringing
heavy rain to the NE gulf coast and northern panhandle. IVT
forecasts indicate good probability of Atmospheric River
conditions beginning Saturday morning, mainly spread over the
northern half of the panhandle.
.LONG TERM...As of 10pm Wednesday. The extended forecast looks
active with normal temperatures and wet weather. Saturday begins
with our next atmospheric river type front already over the
central/eastern gulf. Models are in agreement that a low will
track north along the front to be over the north-central gulf
mid-day Saturday. Models have also deepened the pressure with the
low, helping to give us more confidence in a period of gale force
winds over the gulf.
Moderate to heavy rain over Yakutat will spread SE over the
northern half of the panhandle through the day. Small craft
advisory winds out of the S-SE will shift over the inner channels
with the front and may have some stronger gusts. There will likely
be a wind shift to the west once the front passes. However, waves
tracking along the front will cause it to oscillate N-S through
Sunday, making it somewhat difficult to pin down where the wind
shifts and heaviest core of rain will be at any given time. One
thing that models are starting to agree more on is that one of the
waves will shift the front back northward Sunday night through
Monday, putting Yakutat back under the fire hose. This would
cause the far southern panhandle to only see a brief/small amount
of rain with this front, which is unfortunate as they have the
most need. Eventually the front should shift back SE before
dissipating, but the likelihood/timing of that is more uncertain.
MOS guidance wanted to warm both max and min temperatures by
several degrees. While 850mb temps are warm due to the atmospheric
rivers transporting the "tropical" airmass over us, do not think
that getting out of the low-mid 50s is likely on a rainy/cloudy
fall day. Today is a good example, fairly similar airmass, but
highs hardly in the 40s. As for the min temperatures, warming them
to have a smaller diurnal range on rainy days seems logical, but
with any breaks in the clouds as the front shifts will likely
cause it to be colder. Have stayed with the status quo for the
most part and opted to not warm temps as much as guidance would
suggest. However, at the beginning of next week when the front
shifts back north, there is a time when the southern panhandle
could be partly cloudy in the afternoon. This would allow for
warmer temps than we have in there. As mentioned above, timing of
when the front wavers is the biggest question, so not ready to
commit to partly cloudy and 60 degrees attm.
&&
.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-041>043.
Small Craft Advisory due to Seas for PKZ051>053.
&&
DDH/Ferrin
Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/JuneauThe office that day
Everything else NWS Juneau, AK issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 12, 3:21 AM AKDT | Gale Warning | AJK | 4 days | |
| Oct 12, 3:09 PM AKDT | Gale Warning | AJK | 4 days | |
| Oct 12, 3:09 PM AKDT | Storm Warning | AJK | 24 hr | |
| Oct 12, 3:10 PM AKDT | Small Craft Advisory | AJK | 61 hr | |
| Oct 12, 3:10 PM AKDT | Small Craft Advisory | AJK | 3 days |
Nearby
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.