Storm Warning 19, NWS Juneau, AK

255 
FZAK52 PAJK 090032
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
National Weather Service Juneau AK
332 PM AKST Thu Mar 8 2018

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-091845-
332 PM AKST Thu Mar 8 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A deep low in the northwest gulf will send a gale force front
into the panhandle on Friday. The front will stall over the
southern panhandle Friday night. 

$$

PKZ041-091845-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
332 PM AKST Thu Mar 8 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 kt becoming S 30 kt late. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain in the morning. 
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft. W swell. Rain late. 
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain.
.SUN...S wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft. 
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-091845-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
332 PM AKST Thu Mar 8 2018

...GALE WARNING LATE TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt increasing to 35 kt late. Seas 6 ft 
building to 11 ft. Rain.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft. W swell in the afternoon.
Rain in the morning. 
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft. W swell. 
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft. W swell. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain.
.SUN...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft. 
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-091845-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
332 PM AKST Thu Mar 8 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt increasing to 45 kt late. Seas 7 ft 
building to 14 ft. Rain.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain in the morning. 
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft. W swell. 
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft. W swell. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain.
.SUN...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft. 
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-091845-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
332 PM AKST Thu Mar 8 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt increasing to 45 kt in the late evening.
Seas 7 ft building to 15 ft. Rain.
.FRI...S wind 30 kt diminishing in the afternoon. Seas 19 ft. 
Rain and snow.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft. SW swell. 
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft. SW swell. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. SW swell. Rain.
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft. 
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft. 
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-091845-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
332 PM AKST Thu Mar 8 2018

...STORM WARNING THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt increasing to 50 kt in the evening, then
becoming SW 40 kt late. Seas 10 ft building to 18 ft. Snow and
rain. 
.FRI...S wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft. Rain and snow. 
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft. SW swell. 
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft. SW swell. 
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. SW swell. 
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 

$$

749 
FZAK52 PAJK 091239
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
National Weather Service Juneau AK
339 AM AKST Fri Mar 9 2018

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-100645-
339 AM AKST Fri Mar 9 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A deep low in the northwest gulf will send a gale force front
into the panhandle this morning. The front will stall over  the
southern panhandle tonight before shifting back westward on
Saturday as a wave of low pressure moves into the eastern Gulf. 

$$

PKZ041-100645-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
339 AM AKST Fri Mar 9 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 30 kt becoming SW 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 11
ft. W swell. Rain early in the morning. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft. W swell. Rain late. 
.SAT...S gale to 35 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...S gale to 40 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain.
.SUN...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-100645-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
339 AM AKST Fri Mar 9 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft building to 14 ft in the
afternoon. W swell. Rain early in the morning. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft. W swell. Rain showers late. 
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt becoming S 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
14 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...S gale to 40 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain.
.SUN...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt becoming light. Seas 6 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-100645-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
339 AM AKST Fri Mar 9 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...SE wind 35 kt becoming SW 30 kt in the morning. Seas 15 
ft. Rain early in the morning. Rain and snow showers in the 
afternoon.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft. W swell. Snow showers in the
evening. 
.SAT...S wind 15 kt becoming SE 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas
13 ft. W swell. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SE gale to 40 kt. Seas 19 ft. Rain.
.SUN...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.TUE...E wind 15 kt becoming N. Seas 5 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-100645-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
339 AM AKST Fri Mar 9 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...SE wind 35 kt becoming SW 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 
17 ft. Snow and rain showers. Slight chance of thunderstorms in
the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft. SW swell. Snow showers in
the evening. Slight chance of thunderstorms in the evening. 
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft. SW swell. Rain and snow
showers. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain.
.SUN...SE wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.TUE...E wind 10 kt becoming NW. Seas 6 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-100645-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
339 AM AKST Fri Mar 9 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 30 kt diminishing in the afternoon. Seas 19 ft. 
Rain and snow showers. Slight chance of thunderstorms in the 
afternoon.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft. SW swell in the evening.
Snow showers and rain showers in the evening. Slight chance of
thunderstorms. 
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. SW swell. Rain and snow
showers in the afternoon. 
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.TUE...E wind 10 kt becoming W. Seas 6 ft. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
415 PM AKST Wed Mar 7 2018

.SHORT TERM.../Wednesday night through Friday night/ Low pressure
system in the northeast gulf this afternoon will track to the
southeast along the panhandle coast while weakening. The
associated weather front is crossing over the Panhandle tonight
and follows a similar trend of diminishing by early Thursday
morning. Precipitation has been mostly snow with a mix of rain with
warm air from southerly flow. Snow amounts have been variable today
with amounts of 2 to 8 inches over the northern and central
panhandle. Winter weather advisories for the central areas will last
until Wednesday night as snow rates are expected to peak later this
evening as the front tracks over. Lingering shower activity will
last into Thursday then dissipate as mid level flow shifts to the
southeast. Inner channel winds flipped to the south this afternoon,
will switch to the north this evening as the low center pushes south
then flip again to the south by Thursday as the next system moves in.

A 970 mb low develops south of the AK Peninsula by Thursday
evening with the associated front tracking into the eastern gulf
around the same time. The front will initially produce gale
force winds over the gulf then storm force winds over the
northeast gulf as a barrier jet forms. Due to warming airmass next
round of precipitation is expected to become a mix of snow and
rain and then turn mostly rain, especially for the southern
regions. Snow accumulations will be highest for the Yakutat
area, for now looking at around 5 inches, while other locations
might only receive upwards of 3 inches. Southerly winds over the
panhandle and inner channels will also increase as the front moves
over with at least max small craft to potential gale force winds.

12z GFS/NAM were in good agreement for the up coming front and
were used to update inherited forecast. Some minor adjustments to
winds witht he new model runs but larger change to pop and qpf
which began to narrow the band of higher precip along the coastal
areas. Temperatures were tricky as the timing of the front will
not correspond to diurnal trend, thus highest temps may occur
later at night. Forecast confidence is average.

.LONG TERM.../Saturday through Wednesday as of 10 pm Tuesday/
The GFS and ECMWF are in good agreement with each other, and
shows good consistency with the current forecast through
Saturday. From Sunday onward with the models are having poor
agreement. Blended in the current AKWPC resulting in minor
change, except for temperatures that were significantly increased
early in the week. Southerly warm moist flow should persist
through about Wednesday.

Temperatures needed the most changing with the warming trend over
the weekend. Daytime highs in the 40s, at possibly needing more
adjustment into the 50s for Sunday. With less model confidence,
will stay reserved in the changes but early next week shows
promise of above normal temperatures. Will be watching this
closely as warm temperatures in the 50s and possibly the 60s will
result in significant melting of snow laden ground both at sea
level and at upper elevations as the freezing level rises.

&&

.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PUBLIC...Winter Weather Advisory until 3 AM AKST Thursday for AKZ023-
025.
     Winter Storm Warning until 9 PM AKST this evening for AKZ022.
     Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM AKST this evening for AKZ017.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ052.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ051.
     Small Craft Advisory due to Seas for PKZ041>043.

&&

PRB/KV-RWT

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